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US Stocks Finished Flat to Unchanged Pre-Thanksgiving, Volume Light

#stocks #commodities #memes #cryptocurrencies #Fed $FOMC #economy #politics #Biden #Trump

$SPY $QQQ $RUT $DIA $VXX $USO $GLD $USD $DXY $MMAT $ATER $BTCUSD $ETHRUSD $KNIGHTSUSD

The US market will be closed for Thanksgiving Day and will reopen Friday with a 1:00p EST close. 

“Stocks finished flat in quiet pre-holiday trading, lowest volume of the year“– Paul Ebeling

DJIA -9.42 to 35804.38, NAS Comp +70.09 at 15845.24, S&P 500 +10.76 at 4701.46

Wednesday, the S&P 500 gained 0.2% on Wednesday, the NAS Comp (+0.4%) and Russell 2000 (+0.2%) and the DJIA (-0.03%) closed a bit lower.

6 of 11 S&P 500 sectors closed lower, and 5 closed higher. The real estate (+1.3%) and energy (+1.0%) sectors outperformed in positive territory. The materials (-0.7%) and consumer staples (-0.3%) sectors underperformed.

  • S&P 500 +25.2% YTD
  • NAS Comp +22.9% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +18.1% YTD
  • DJIA+17.0% YTD

The FOMC Minutes

The FOMC mins showed that “some participants preferred a somewhat faster pace of reductions that would result in an earlier conclusion to net purchases,” which was what many market participants were expecting a rise in the 2yr yield. 

Plus, “various participants noted that the Committee should be prepared to adjust the pace of asset purchases and raise the target range for the federal funds rate sooner than participants currently anticipated if inflation continued to run higher than levels consistent with the Committee’s objectives.

Now, the CME FedWatch Tool has a 54.5% probability of a rate hike in May 2022, Vs 35.8% 1 wk ago and 45.4% yesterday. 

Key Commodities

WTI Crude Oil futures settled unchanged at $78.37/bbl, gold futures settled lower by $5.70 (-0.3%) to $1,783.90/oz, and the US Dollar Index + 0.4% at 96.90

Memes

Most on our list lost, these 2 finished in the Green

Shares of Meta Materials (NASDAQ:MMAT) finished up Wednesday to $4.20. The stock’s 52-wk range is $0.64 to 21.76 on volume of 8.75-M/shares.

Aterian (NASDAQ:ATER) traded up 8.42% to $5.41, in a 52-wk range of $3.04 to 48.99 on 2.5-M/shares.

Shares of Nano Dimension traded up about 9.7% in the noon hour, at $5.07 in a 52-week range of $4.45 to $17.89. The average daily trading volume is around 6.4 million shares, and about 10.7 had traded already.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies were mostly lower Wednesday as bitcoin traded in a tight range around $56,000. Technical indicators suggest Southside is limited to the $53,000 support, which could keep buyers active toward $60,000 resistance.

Trading volume is expected to decline over the next few days in the US, some analysts expect volatility to increase in the bitcoin and ether options market as November comes to a close.

Rising volatility may cause sharp price moves over the next few days, which could discourage buyers from holding onto positions for an extended frame.

The US Economy

  • Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 20 plunged by 71,000 to 199,000 which is the lowest level of initial claims since November 15, 1969. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending November 13 decreased by 60,000 to 2.049-M.
    • The Key takeaway from the report is that, with initial claims hitting their lowest mark since Y 1969, it will play into the burgeoning narrative that the Fed may need to be more aggressive with its tapering plans.
  • Personal income increased 0.5% month-over-month in October, while personal spending increased 1.3%. The PCE Price Index jumped 0.6%, as expected, and the core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.4% as expected.
    • The Key takeaway from the report is that prices increased at a pace faster than income, stealing the purchasing power of those income gains and leading to more spending out of savings. Real disposable personal income declined 0.3% month-over-month while the personal savings rate, as a percentage of disposable personal income, fell to 7.3% from 8.2%.
  • New home sales increased 0.4% month-over-month in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 745,000 from a downwardly revised 742,000 in September. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were down 23.1%.
    • The Key takeaway from the report is that the growth in new home sales is concentrated in higher-priced homes, as inflation pressures, exacerbated by supply constraints and labor shortages, are curtailing the building of lower-priced homes and pinching affordability for lower-income buyers.
  • The final November University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment increased to 67.4 from the preliminary reading of 66.8. The final reading for October was 71.7.
    • The Key takeaway from the report is that the Index of Consumer Expectations has been pressured to its lowest level in a decade due to rapidly accelerating inflation and little belief that steps are being taken to mitigate rising prices. Roughly 25% of respondents said that inflation eroded their living standards in November.
  • The 2nd estimate for Q3 GDP showed an upward revision to 2.1% from 2.0%. The GDP Price Deflator was revised to 5.9% from 5.7%.
    • The Key takeaway from the report is the understanding that the change in private inventories fueled the Q-3 GDP increase. Real final sales of domestic product, which excludes the change in private inventories, were flat, slightly better than 0.1% decline reported with the 1st estimate.
  • The Advance report for International Trade in Goods for October showed a deficit of $82.9-M, Vs a revised $97.0 billion in September. The Advance report for Retail Inventories for October decreased 0.1%, while the Advance report for Wholesale Inventories for October increased 2.2%.
  • The Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index increased 1.8% following a 2.8% decline in the previous wk. 

The average cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people rose this year compared to Y 2020, according to a survey from the American Farm Bureau Federation.

The average cost of a traditional Thanksgiving dinner for 10 is $53.31, according to the Farm Bureau, an increase of $6.41 (14%) from last yr, when the average cost was $46.90

Politics

Mr. Biden’s plan to release 50-M bbls of Crude Oil from the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve to give Americans a break at the gas pump is being slammed by critics who argue the decision is merely a temporary fix to a problem the he created.

The cost of gasoline has drastically increased since Mr. Biden took office. Oil experts argue that his decisions to move away from “energy dominance” policies enacted by President Trump (45) by stopping pipeline projects, waging a war against fracking, and relying on OPEC+ to supply the nation’s fuel have caused prices at the pump to spike.

Have a happy, healthy Thanksgiving holiday, Keep the Faith!

Paul Ebeling
Paul A. Ebeling, a polymath, excels, in diverse fields of knowledge Including Pattern Recognition Analysis in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange, and he is the author of "The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a highly regarded, weekly financial market commentary. He is a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to over a million cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognize Ebeling as an expert.   

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