Sentiment among US home-builders climbed to a 6-month high in April, another indication that the housing market is gathering momentum during the Key Spring season. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose 1 point to 63, matching the median estimate in Bloomberg’s survey of economists, on improvements in present sales and buyer traffic, […]
$XAU, $GLD, $USD President Trump’s plans to nominate Stephen Moore and Herman Cain to the Fed board, and that move points back to The Gold Standard, a policy option once advocated by both men and President Trump himself. The Big Q: What is the case for returning to The Gold Standard? The Big A: Is […]
$GLD, $XAU, $USD FLASH: Gold could 2X overnight, especially if President Trump uses it as a weapon in his battle Vs the Fed. The Fed controls the Buck, the Buck is the world’s trading currency, and so the Fed controls the world. A stronger USD hurts the world’s growth prospects. It also hurts President Trump’s […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RURX, $VXX FLASH: Wall Street finished flat to little changed in front of earnings season The stock market finished little changed Thursday in a tight-ranged trading session. The S&P 500 finished fractionally higher, as RSI from financial and industrial stocks helped mitigate losses from shares of healthcare companies in front of earnings […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: The S&P 500 gained 0.5% Friday in a broad-based advance that was supported by a Goldilocks Employment Situation Report for March. The benchmark index advanced for the 7th session running, increasits its weekly gainer to 2.1%, and closed within 10 points of the 2900 level. The US labor market […]
$SPY FLASH: Earnings season just 2 weeks away US stocks ended the final trading day of Q-1 on a strong note Friday and the S&P 500 posted its best quarterly gainer since Y 2009, boosted by optimism over the latest round of trade talks between the US and China. A Chinese delegation led by Vice […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The just released data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau show that the US monthly international trade deficit decreased in January 2019 from $59.9% in December (revised) to $51.1-B as expected, as imports decreased and exports increased. The goods deficit decreased $8.2-B in January […]
$GLD, $USD, $EUR, $GBP, $CNY What we have been seeing over the past few years is that confidence in government is fading and the price of Gold is rising. Some current examples The UK House of Commons voted 413-202 last week to delay Britain’s exit from the EU. Despite resounding defeats, Prime Minister Theresa May […]
$USD, $SPY FLASH: The Fed’s decisive statement this week that interest rates are unlikely to rise this year sends a signal to US households: keep buying things. The Fed tries to guide the US economy by controlling the interest rate banks charge one another for overnight loans. Moving this rate up lifts other rates in […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: The latest fund manager survey from Bank of America showed the allocation to equities is at its lowest since September 2016 indicating that managed money missed the 2019 rally and will have to play catch up soon. The S&P 500 advanced 0.7% Tuesday, on Dovish expectations ahead of the […]
$USD White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow rejects criticism that the US economy is only growing because of a “sugar high” from The Trump Administration’s tax reform. He predicted that President Trump’s “pro-growth policies on taxes and regulation” will continue to stoke growth far into the future. Some economists contended that the economy is losing […]
The growing mystery of where China’s rapid slowdown is headed may become the biggest risk on the horizon. The world economy. Recession Watch: The global economy’s in its weakest shape since the financial crisis 10 years ago. China got more affirming evidence of its Big slowdown, with industrial output and retail sales softening and a […]
US mortgage home applications to buy and to refinanc increased last week as most borrowing costs fell in step with US bond yields tied to worries about slowing economic growth, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed on Wednesday. The Washington-based industry group’s seasonally adjusted index on mortgage activity rose 2.3% to 384.0 in the week […]
The global economy’s softened throughout Y 2018 has left the pace of expansion the weakest since the global financial crisis a decade ago. A new GDP tracker puts world growth at 2.1% on a Q-Q annualized basis, down from about 4% in the middle of last year. While there is a chance that the economy […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: This Bull Market is about to have its 10th Birthday! US household wealth fell 3.5% into the close of Y 2018 on the back of a Fed engineered stock market correction in Q-4 that threatened to weaken a near 10 year recovery. In its Quarterly Flow of Funds report, the […]
$USD FLASH: President Trump, “I want a strong dollar, but I want a dollar that’s great for our country not a dollar that is so strong that it is prohibitive for us to be dealing with other nations.” Saturday, President Trump renewed criticism of the Fed and said its tight monetary policy contributes to a […]
$SPY, $USD US homebuilding fell to a more than 2-year lows in December as construction of both single and multi-family housing declined, the latest indication that the economy lost momentum in the fourth quarter. Other details of the report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday were also downbeat and suggested that the housing market could remain sluggish […]
When the Fed’s FOMC policymakers met last month and put it 3-year rate-hike campaign on hold and backed ending a yearlong push to shrink their $4-T balance sheet, that was draining the liquidity out of the system and shrinking the wealth of American house holds by the trillions of dollars, they cited increased risks to […]
FLASH: The Trump Policy at Work for Americans The Key takeaways from the FOMC Minutes from the 29-30 January meeting, as follows: There was widespread agreement for the FOMC to end shrinkage of the $4-T balance sheet by the end of the year. The timetable ends uncertainty over whether shedding assets would further tighten financial conditions. The […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: FOMC Mins as expected; Fed will maintain patience in rate hikes and stop reducing assets on its balance sheet later this year. The Takeaway The FOMC Minutes said the central bank is going to be patient in raising rates and is likely to stop reducing the assets on its […]
The sentiment among US homebuilders rose in February for a 2nd month runnning exceeded all forecasts, as lower mortgage rates and a strong labor market help stabilize demand. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose to 62 from 58 amid broad improvement on gauges of sales, expectations and buyer traffic, data released Tuesday […]
$GLD, $GOLD, $USD, $GDX, $GS FLASH: The savvy observers see Golden opps in the precious Yellow metal and its miners. Last September in this column we suggested it was time for investors to add gold to their portfolios. And that data shows that since that time, gold has gained nearly 10%. Gold marked to a […]
US mortgage applications declined for a 4th week running even as some home borrowing costs fell to their lowest levels in more than 11 months, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday. The Washington-based industry group’s seasonally-adjusted index on borrower requests to lenders for a loan to buy a home and to refinance one decreased 3.7% to 364.8% […]
The Fed’s interest rate increase in December tipped monetary policy into a restrictive setting that may be pushing the economy farther from one of the Fed’s Key goals, James Bullard, President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, said last week. Mr. Bullard, in remarks to reporters after an appearance at St. Cloud State University […]
Monday, President Trump summoned Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to the White House for dinner to discuss recent economic developments and the overall outlook. The Fed is being tight lipped about the ongoing monetary policy discussions with President Trump. Chairman Powell’s comments were “consistent with his remarks at his press conference of last week,” the Fed […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s 1st post-meeting press conference of Y 2019 left market expectations for a rate hike this year an Big Q, and raised the chances of a cut in Y 2020. The Fed’s tone Wednesday cast doubt on the prospects of interest rates heading higher at […]
$BAC US real estate brokers are trying to figure out why sales of existing homes dove in December. US home sales fell to their lowest mark in 3 years in December and house price increases slowed sharply, suggesting a further loss of momentum in the housing market. The weak report from the National Association of Realtors […]
$BAC, $C, $JPM, $WFC,$FITB, $BKX, $SPY We do expect US bank shares to continue to outperform after better-than-expected Q-4 earnings and outlooks and their cheap stock prices finally broke a losing streak, thus leading the next leg of this historic Bull Market. The gains will be driven by management teams reiterating their ability to drive […]
The US financial markets have had the time conger the very strong US jobs report, as well as signs of progress in the China-US trade talks. But, despite the positive news, investors and traders believe the Fed will stop hiking interest rates this year and will cut them in both Ys 2020 and 2021. The difference […]
The number of US consumers who applied for loans to buy a home and to refinance 1 rose to an 11-month high last week, signaling that the recent drop in interest rates is reviving housing activity, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a report Wednesday. The Washington-based industry group’s seasonally adjusted gauge on mortgage applications increased 13.5% […]
$GLD, $SLV, $USD There are Key elements set up to extend Gold’s from just after the Y 2008 global recession to the precious Yellow metals Y 2011 all time high, signalling a comeback this year. Gold Bugs are looking for a break out of its 5 year range, and technically it looks as though that […]
Fed Chairman Powell not listening, he is being reprieved a the enemy of the US economy and the equity markets. President Donald Trump expressed confidence in the Fed, and its Chairman, Jerome Powell, following reports that he has discussed firing his central bank chief, though the President complained again that interest rates have been rising […]
$SPY, $WFC, $CS Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) cut estimates for stocks next year on concern the Fed is making policy mistakes that will dampen US economic growth. Chris Harvey, head of equity strategy at the bank, cut his year-end target for the S&P 500 Index to 2,665 from 3,079. While the new forecast represents a 10% […]
$DJIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, ,$VXX The US major stock market will start this week again testing the bottom of the range formed with by the selling that began in October. The S&P 500 cracked 2600 and supposedly that sets up more Southside action. Sentiment is extreme as reported by the AAIA, outflows from stocks are at […]
$DJIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, ,$VXX The US major stock market will start the week testing the bottom of the range formed with by the selling that began in October. The patterns and technical indicators suggest a move from where the major indexes closed Friday back up to the November highs. After a reversal off the trading […]
Volatile Markets are Opportunities for Savvy Participants $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Some investors get scared when the stock market falls, but there is always the other side of that action. When selling happens, stocks are on sale. The recent Southside action can provide opportunities that investors have not seen for a while. The Key […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $SPY, $VXX Just 12 days ago everybody on The Street was celebrating Thanksgiving in a very cautious market mode, they came back to their desks, and triggered a Key reversal in the major US stock market indexes that was confirmed on Friday, 30 November and […]
Fed’s Dovish Outlook Fuels Broad Based Rally in Stocks $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The S&P 500 extended weekly gainer by 2.3% Wednesday after Fed Chairman Powell said he sees current interest rates “just below” Neutral. His dovish remarks at the NY Economic Club thus providing a rally point of of the Key reversal Monday […]
“Growth ‘Cracks’ Will Shape Fed Funds Rate Debate” $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX For the past 2 years we have seen the Fed move ahead with steady rate increases in an economy that has done better than many had expected, boosted by government spending, tax cuts, and global growth. The easy part may be over, […]
The US is ‘Years away from a recession” Many economists, pundits, and talking heads are forecasting that the US is close to entering a recession. The recession could come inY 2020, but some argue it could start as early as next year. While there are a number of signs that point to that conclusion, a […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $SPY, $VXX Last week everybody that is anybody was away celebrating Thanksgiving, now they are back to their desks, that is if not stranded in a blizzard. Looking back, here is some stirrings emerging from the small and mid-caps via chips, telecom, and some bio techs and […]
Thanksgiving Football Weekend, Winning the Financial Debate When this year’s holiday weekend discussion turns to the US economy, which it may, you need to be primed correctly. Whether your relatives want to talk about the job market as casual observers or parse Fed actions like superNerds, we have prepared rebuttals for some of Y 2018’s […]
As Market Corrects, Huge Opportunities Come to Light $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX This Bull market correction is/will yield huge opportunities for savvy and patient participants. If you have to put money to work in the market now, we suggest you go into the defensive names in healthcare, consumer staples and utilities In tech 1 will […]
President Trump, “the Fed is the problem, must lower rates.” US President Donald Trump renewed his criticism of the Fed Tuesday, describing the central bank as a “problem” as he called for lower interest rates. The latest Presidential assault on the nation’s monetary authority comes as stocks dive on concerns ranging from slower global growth, […]
As Market Leadership Rotates, Money Manager Speak Out $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ Following are the views of 7 money managers and strategists on what could conceivably put a brake on the selling in this market. This view is held by almost everyone: that a softening in Fed’s hawkish rhetoric and President Trump’s trade dispute talk would […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX DJIA higher, some testing leaders start to bounce back. Chipmakers show many interesting Northside setups. Fed Vice Chairman moves warm markets. The market action has given up some good patterns, the Big Q: Will the break North into year’s end. Today is Monday, the […]
Banks Will Feel Pain Once Crude Oil Price Fall Below $50 bbl $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $USO, $VXX The S&P 500 gained 1.1% Thursday to snap a 5-session losing streak. US-China trade optimism and strength from tech stocks, Banks can handle the energy-linked loans they have extended just as long as Crude Oil prices don’t drop […]
Looking for a Major Bottom in Gold $GLD, $USD Shayne and I do not believe that the weakness in Gold and gold mining stocks is over, the outlook is that another Southside leg getting underway. Should that happen, we are positioned to profit from it. Long-term investors, traders, and speculators should be aware of the […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Last Wednesday post election spike either stands on its own or platforms for a breakout. PPI at a 6 year high with prices +2.9% Y-Y. S&P 500, DJIA in excellent tests, NAS Comp work’in on it This week we see new leaders come up […]
The Strong US Economy is Continues to Grow The strong US economy is continuing to grow at a 2.9% annualized rate in Q-4, following the latest economic data, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed on Friday. This was unchanged from the pace for Q-4 GDP Atlanta Fed’s GDP program calculated on 2 November. The nowcast […]
US Consumer Sentiment on Track for Best Year Since 2000 Consumers ready to Pick Up Spending Heading into Holiday Season US consumers have greater certainty about job and income prospects. University of Michigan’s (MSI) consumer sentiment index flat to unchanged but remains strong US consumer sentiment topped analysts expectations to stay on track for its best […]
Two Years In, President Trump Holds Stock Market Bragging Rights $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Wednesday, US stocks rallied with broad gains led by the technology and healthcare sectors as investors made bets that a divided Congress would be good for equities. Democrats won control of the House Tuesday, while President Donald Trump’s Republican party […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX NFPs report solid, shows best wage growth in 10 years. China trade, market still struggles on news. 4 day Rally paused Friday All Eyes on the US Congressional Midterm Elections Tuesday Friday, stocks opened higher then faded, trending lower into early afternoon. Positives turned to […]
President Trump and The Fed Want to See Inflation $USD, $SPY, $GLD, $SLV The value of USD is determined by a number of variables. For example, this year’s trade wars with China have resulted in a stronger Buck and a weakened RMB Yuan. There are a few internal mechanisms that can be used to raise or […]
US Stock Rise in Strong Rally, Chipmakers Lead $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Tuesday, the major US stock market indexes rose more than 1%, driven by strong gainers for chip and transport stocks, as investors took advantage of cheaper prices following the recent pullback. All 11 S&P 500 sectors ended in the Green a day […]
US New Home Sales Fall as Mortgages Rates Rise Sales of new US single-family homes fell to a near 2-year low in September and data for the prior three months was revised lower, the latest indications that rising mortgage rates and higher prices were sapping demand for housing. Though housing accounts for a small share […]
Fed Will Fade, Halt Interest Rate Hikes After December $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Jim Cramer says Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hike interest rates once more in December and then stop. “I just think he’s going to blink,” Mr. Cramer said on TV Monday “It’s going to be 1 and done in December. That’s […]
US Stocks Test on Fed Rates and Global Growth Concerns $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The S&P 500 index closed just above its 200-Day MA, a Key indicator of long-term price trends. US stocks opened lower as Chinese stocks fell overnight, sparking concerns about the impact of trade tensions on China’s economy. Plus, concerns mounted […]
Fed’s Current Monetary Policy Raise the Risks of Recession President Trump has criticized recent Fed rate increases, arguing that they threatened economic growth. The Fed’s current monetary policy path would raise the risks of recession in an economy where recent, unexpectedly strong growth may start to taper anyway, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said […]
President Trump is Not Demanding a Monetary Policy Change at the Fed Wednesday, White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said that US President Trump was not demanding a policy change at the Fed. President Trump heaped more criticism on the Fed Tuesday, calling rising US interest rates his “biggest threat.” The Trump Administration official said […]
Fed Hawks Want to Chill Roaring US Economy Despite sharp criticism from President Donald Trump for raising interest rates, Fed policymakers remain generally united on the need to raise borrowing costs further, according to minutes from their most recent policy meeting. Every policymaker backed the Fed’s September rate increase, according to the minutes of the Sept. […]
US Homebuilder Sentiment Up On Solid Demand October’s pickup in sentiment across the 3 sub-indexes and all 4 regions indicates the market for newly-built homes Confidence among America’s homebuilders unexpectedly rose in October, registering the 1st gainer in 5 months amid falling lumber prices and solid demand, according to a report Tuesday from the National […]
President Trump, “The Fed is Out of Control” $DIA, SPY, QQQ, RUTX, VXX US President Donald Trump said he will not fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell but blamed an “out of control” FOMC for the worst stock market sell-off since February. President Trump also told reporters in the Oval Office Thursday morning that he knows […]
Looking at the US Home Mortgage Market $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ Last week the Dow Jones on Tuesday and Wednesday closed at all-time highs, this week it pulled back. That makes 4 new BEV Zeros in the BEV chart below in the past ten trading days, and that’s something I can’t complain about. If you compare […]
Mortgage Requests Fall, Borrowing Costs at 7-Year Highs US mortgage applications declined last week as home borrowing costs climbed to their highest levels in over 7 years, propelled by a spike in bond yields during last week’s market selloff, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday. The Washington-based industry group said its seasonally adjusted gauge on consumer […]
“Fed Raising Rates Too Fast” $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Tuesday, President Donald Trump criticized the Fed saying it is going too fast in raising rates when inflation is minimal and government data points to a strong economy. “Well, I like to see low interest rates. The Fed is doing what it thinks is necessary […]
S&P 500 Earnings Preview: Q-3 Y 2018 $SPY, $JPM, $C, $WFC, $USD Earnings reporting period is here once again, and it always commands a great deal of attention because earnings drive stock prices over the long term. The S&P 500 has been underpinned by impressive earnings growth. The Q-3 reporting frame, which begins in earnest […]
President Trump’s Economic Boom Can Last ‘A Good Many Years’ President Trump is Guiding ‘Hottest Economy’ in World Larry Kudlow, director of the White House’s National Economic Council, does not see an end to the robust economic growth sparked by President Donald Trump’s strategy. “I just do not see where this is going to end,” he […]
US Rates Rise, US Stocks Fall $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The stock market fell Friday as bond yields continued to climb following the release of the Employment Situation report for September. The S&P 500 and the DJIA lost 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively; the tech-heavy NAS Comp dropped 1.2%. At its session low, the S&P […]
Short-Term Recession Risks for US Are Not High $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The US economy does not face a large chance of a recession in the next 2 years and the Fed plans to keep gradually raising interest rates, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday. Asked whether the narrowing gap between short-term and long-term […]
US Home Mortgage Rates at Highest Mark in 7 Years+ Home borrowing costs will continue rising throughout the year in this strong economy Home mortgage rates in the US rose for a 5th week running, marking levels not seen in more than 7 years and are expected to continue to rise into Y 2019. The […]
The Trump Effect: Atlanta Fed Keeps GDP Forecast at 4.4% $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Wednesday, the S&P 500 finished with a gainer of 0.1%, driven by financial shares, which rallied on another rise in interest rates. The blue-chip DJIA outperformed, adding 0.6%, the NAS Comp lagged, closing lower by 0.1%, and the small-cap Russell […]
Fed Moving to Avert a Recession Due to Falling Unemployment Fed officials tout 10 yrs of falling unemployment as among their major victories in fighting the economic crisis of Y’s 2007 to 2009. Now they are starting to worry they have been too successful. When unemployment falls as low as it is currently, Boston Fed […]
US Investors are Ignoring Political Drama, the ‘Economy’s Everything $SPY National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said stock-market investors are apparently ignoring any White House political turbulence because the robust economy is proof President Donald Trump’s strategy is working. The Bull market on Wall Street set history this week when it eclipsed the S&P 500’s […]
US GDP Growing on Strong Domestic Demand The US economy set to charge ahead as fresh domestic demand carries it past some softening overseas, keeping the Fed on course for further interest-rate hikes later this year Households have more cash to spend than thought, thanks to pools of savings and President Donald Trump’s tax cuts. […]
President Trump, “not trilled” with Fed’s Raising Interest Rates $USD, $EUR Monday, US President Donald Trump said he is “not thrilled” with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for raising interest rates, plus he accused China and Europe of manipulating their respective currencies. President Trump rattled investors in July when he criticized the Fed’s monetary policy tightening, […]
Fed’s FOMC Votes 8-0 to Leave Fed Fund’s Rate Unchanged $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RTUX, $VXX The FOMC left the benchmark interest rate unchanged, and reiterating their plan to gradually lift borrowing costs to keep the economy expanding at a healthy pace. Economic activity has been “rising at a strong rate,” and the unemployment rate “has […]
Forex Traders Overwhelm Emerging Markets’ Central Bankers $DXY, $OIL, $GLD, $SLV Selloff forces EM central banks to raise interest rates Currencies have struggled to find a floor despite rate moves Central banks in emerging economies are losing the battle with markets as their efforts to shield their currencies struggle for traction, suggesting policy makers have […]
Interest from prospective home buyers in Northern states have propelled two Florida counties — Sarasota and Collier — to the top of the nation’s fastest-growing luxury housing markets, according to the May 2018 Luxury Home Index from realtor.com®, The Home of Home Search℠. In May, the top 5 percent most expensive home prices in Sarasota […]
US Labor Market Tightens, Jobless Claims Fall $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to a further tightening in labor market conditions. The robust US labor market and firming inflation have cemented expectations the Fed will raise interest rates next week at the FOMC meeting. […]
Some Summer Fun Activities can Invalidate Your Life Insurance Whether your children are out of school or you just want a break from work, the Summer is a popular time for vacations in sunny destinations, such as Hawaii and Florida. But if you are the type of person who regularly likes to spice up travel […]
US Unemployment Rolls Smallest in 45 Years $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Thursday, the US economic data showed an acceleration in mid-Atlantic factory activity this month, with manufacturers saying they were boosting employment and asking for higher prices for their products. The combination of a tightening labor market and firming inflation bolsters expectations the Fed will […]
Fed’s Williams Sees ‘Neutral’ Interest Rate Lower, Longer $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Stocks dip following a the strong start to the month Treasury’s benchmark 10-yr yield above 3.00% Tuesday, Mr. Williams, who will take the helm of the New York Fed on 18 June, said that inflation is nearing the central bank’s 2% target after […]
The Trump Expansion Continues to Deliver Jobs The US economy has delivered steady, modest gains for most Americans since the Great Recession ended in Y 2009. President Trump’s policies have extended what is now the 2nd-longest economic expansionon record and why more of the country might soon benefit from higher pay. The government said Friday […]
FOMC Stands Pat on Interest Rates, Focus Now on June Meeting $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The Fed policy makers held interest rates steady Wednesday and expressed confidence that a recent rise in inflation to near the central bank’s 2% target would be sustained, leaving it on track to raise borrowing costs in June. The Fed’s […]
Assets that Will Suffer on the Return to the Normal Interest Rate Regime $SPY, $GLD, $SLV, $BAC While Treasuries faded a bit after 10-year yields tapped at the 3% mark last week for the 1st time in 4 years, expectations are mounting that higher rates will soon be normal again, that rate historically is 5.0% […]
The US Stock Market Remains in Consolidation Mode $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX, $USO The Bull has paused to refresh Fundamentals are Strong Interest rates are low Some pundits are saying that the world markets entered Y 2018 speculating that the most synchronized global economic expansion in a decade was going to get to Hot, but […]
The US 10yr Yield is the Global Benchmark, Do Not Fear It $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Growth-sensitive groups like industrials, materials, and technology lead the broad retreat Tuesday At the close: the DJIA -424 pts, or 1.7%, at 24,024, the S&P 500 -36 pts, or 1.3%, at 2,6234, and the NAS Comp -121 pts, or […]
Investors Rotating Leadership form QE ‘Winners’ to QE ‘Losers’ $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Analysts are expecting investors will shift their holdings as the realization sinks in that the Fed is committed to raising interest rates until a major event compels the central bank to reverse course. That means investments that had strong gains during a […]
The Fed ‘May’ Need to Gradually Raise Interest Rates The Fed may need to keep raising interest rates to keep inflation under control, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a speech on the economic outlook that did not address the economic risks of rising trade tensions. Friday, in his 1st speech on the economic outlook since assuming […]
Healthy Economy, Strong Earnings Will Drive Stock Market North $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ Soon the stock market will reflect the economy, and all systems are on Go. March Private Sector Jobs, Non-Manufacturing Activity and Help Wanted OnLine ADP: 241,000; Goods: 65,000/ ISM (Non-Man.): -0.7 point; Orders: -5.3 points/ HWOL: up 102,100 The Institute for Supply Management’s […]
Gold Finished the Quarter with a Gainer, Bulls Happy $GLD Gold Bulls are finding Y 2018 a Happy Time so far.=. Gold is wrapping up a 3rd quarterly gainer, something not seen since Y 2011, and ETF (exchange-traded fund) holdings are near the highest in 5 years. Safe-haven demand may also get a boost with […]
DJIA Finished Off 724 Points, Markets Do Not Like Trade Wars $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The DJIA fell more than 700 pts on trade fears, tumbling back into correction territory as US stocks plunged the most in 6 weeks amid the threat of an escalating trade war with China that has the potential to disrupt global growth. At […]
Fed Hikes, Stocks Fall, Gold Rises $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $GLD Stocks swung sharply Wednesday afternoon following the release of the FOMC’s policy directive, which increased the fed funds target range by 25 bpts to 1.50%-1.75%. Overall the hike was priced in ahead of the Fed’s expected move. The S&P 500, the NAS Comp, and the […]
US Bull Market Turned 9 Friday, a Happy Day for the Bulls $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ Friday, the 2nd longest US Bull Market since WWII turned 9 anni. It began precisely at 1.00p EST on 9 March 2009 when all 3 of the major US stock market indexes bottoms and bounced in unison. A very rare […]
Inflation & Gold, the Link Between the Elements $GLD The Big Q: On fueled inflation will Gold’s price soar? The Big A: The recent US NFPs report showed that wages had jumped 2.9% in January on an annual basis. It was the best since Y 2009, which awakened investor fears of inflation. That’s why investors awaited Wednesday’s data on […]
CPI Came in ‘Hot’, US Stock Market Shrugged it Off and Spiked $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The stock market pundits fears about inflation are inflated. Econ 101: No Inflation, No Growth Top-weighted financials and technology sectors lead market higher Wednesday, US stocks finished sharply higher, shrugging off an initial sharp decline in futures pre-market immediately […]
US Economy Strong, Interest Rates Will Rise $VXX Thursday, New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said that as long as the US economy continues to grow above trend this year, he would be in favor of another interest rate rise at the US central bank’s upcoming meeting in March. “As long as I am […]
Americans Filing for Unemployment Benefits at 45 yr Lows The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, dropping to its lowest level in almost 45 years as the labor market tightened further, driving expectations of faster wage growth this year. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 9,000 to a seasonally […]
Fed: US Stock Market Outlook Unchanged in Growing Economy $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Fed officials played down recent volatility in global stock markets, sounding as resolved to push ahead with gradual increases in interest rates as before the pullback. “Having a bump like this has virtually no consequence in my view of the economic outlook,” […]