#happiness #misery #jobs #inflation #employment “The best way to mitigate misery is through economic growth“– Paul Ebeling The human condition fits in a spectrum between ‘miserable’ and ‘happy.’ In the economic space misery flows from high inflation, steep borrowing costs and unemployment. The best way to mitigate misery is through economic growth as happiness blossoms […]
#banks #domestic #profits #virus #chaos $KBE US bank profits were significantly higher in Q-3 than 1-H of Y 2020, still the industry lags behind Y 2019 marks. The industry’s profits jumped 173% in Q-3 to $51.2-B, after firms spent 1-H of the year setting aside billions of dollars to offset expected virus epidemic-driven losses. But […]
#Economy #Fed #FOMC #COVID #consumeer #spending The US economy is holding up despite a rise in Covid cases. ‘’It is hard to find a huge drop in the real-time economic data,” The Richmond Fed President said Monday. “I am thinking about credit-card spending which I get to see every week. It really has not taken […]
#home #prices Prices for US single-family homes increased 12% in Q-3, the biggest annual rise in 7 yrs, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Prices rose from a year earlier in all 181 metro areas measured by the NAR, and 117 regions had double-digit gains, compared with only 15 in Q-2, according to a […]
#investors #stocks #virus #recovery $DIA $SPY $SPX $QQQ $RUTX “Pay attention, and always take what the market gives, do not fight the tape or the Fed” — Paul Ebeling After rising about 4.4% from the end of Y 2019, the S&P 500 index SPX, dropped 34% from February to March. The market supported by the Trump […]
#Fed #WallStreet #liquidity #money $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX “The Fed is absolutely supportive, Chairman Powell stresses it has got the market’s back, they are there” — Paul Ebeling Given the choice between a broad package of economic aid/relief/stimulus and targeted Fed liquidity support, Wall Street prefers liquidity, due to its benefits for asset prices. […]
#Fed #interestrates #stimulus #economy #virus $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX The Fed kept its dovish monetary policy intact Thursday and pledged again to do whatever it takes in coming months to sustain a US economic recovery threatened by a spreading virus chaos. The policy statement released after the US central bank’s latest two-day meeting did not mention […]
#Home #loans #economic #recovery #Covid19 “Home loans to reach $3.2-T in 2020, Most in 17 yrs“– Paul Ebeling US home mortgage originations are forecast to total $3.18-T this year, the most since Y 2003, as low rates drive a spike in refinancing and purchases, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Housing activity has soared […]
#Homebuilder #confidence #lowrates $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX US homebuilder confidence advanced in October to an all-time high as record-low interest rates continued to fuel sales and the demand outlook. A gauge of builder sentiment climbed to 85, the highest in records back to Y 1985, from 83 a month earlier, according to the National Association […]
#Fed #inflation The Fed is determined to drive inflation higher from marks it considers extremely low. For that to happen, 1st it must convince the market and consumers that prices will accelerate going forward. The Key problem is that the measures that bond traders and strategists rely on for longer-run inflation expectations can often give […]
#market #stimlus #PresidentTrump #Fed $DIA $DJIA $SPY $SPX $QQQ $RUTX $USD $DXY “Investors should be preparing for inflation, not this recovering economy.“– Paul Ebeling The US and the been through a profound economic shock with the China ‘Act of War’ virus, but everything every policy-making body in the US is doing is inflationary it is […]
#gold $XAU $GLD $USD The Fundamentals Central banks worldwide are committed to suppressing interest rates and printing money to solve their nation’s debt problems. Eventually, they will be forced to default or devalue, they will devalue. The Technicals Gold forms a major bottom every 8-yrs. The last low came in Y 2016. The next one should […]
#housing #market Existing home sales are hitting the highest marks in 14 yrs, so, it is clear the US housing market is on fire. Mortgage demand is rising again despite the highest interest rates in several wks. Mortgage applications increased 6.8% from 1 wk earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications […]
#BREXIT #UK #EU $GBP $EUR $USD Fears of a no-deal BREXIT are back to haunt the UK financial markets. With the relationship between the EU and Britain reaching a new level of discord, investors hammered the GBP with an intensity that has not been seen since the height of the virus chaos in March. Money […]
#mortgage #recordlows Mortgage rates in the US dropped to another record low, adding fuel to a housing market that’s been a Key source of strength for the virus chaos economy. The average for a 30-yr, fixed loan was 2.86%, down from 2.93% last week and the lowest in almost 50 yrs of data-keeping by Freddie […]
#home #mortgages #applications #VA #FHA Mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 3% last week from the prior week but surged 40% from a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The Y-Y comparison is usually in single digits. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.9% on a […]
#Fed #dollar #euro #yen $USD $EUR $JPY The Fed shift to a more tolerant stance on inflation will be a drag on the Buck for years and will raise hard questions about the role of central banking, challenging policymakers from Frankfurt to Tokyo. The Fed’s policy ‘tweak‘, unveiled on 27 August appears tailored to giving […]
#PresidentTrump #Powell #Fed #jobs #interest #rates $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VIX $VXX The US financial markets will be closed Monday for Labor Day Friday, Trump Fed Chairman Powell declared the the NFPs employment report for August was “a good one,“and reiterated that the FOMC will keep ultra-accommodative monetary policy (the Fed put) for years to […]
#Trump #recovery #stocks #exports #housing #sandbagging #Democrats #Republicans $DIA $SPY $QQQ The last recession, from Ys 2007 to 2009, was harsh because of of the meltdowns in the financial and housing markets. The S&P 500 dove 56% from peak to trough, and home values declined 27%. That loss of household wealth took years to recover and scared on […]
#investments #stocks #C19coronavirus #risk #money #cash $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Energy, aviation and lodging firms hit hard by the coronavirus chaos will offer handsome returns for high-yield investors in the months ahead. There are opportunities for discerning money managers and aggressive retail investors. We and other Top money managers see opportunities in stressed and […]
#home #prices #supply #demand The average home price in the US in May rose 4.2% compared to a year ago. The data show that prices for cheaper homes grew faster than the rest of the market, rising 6.7% from a year ago. The coronavirus chaos helped shape the housing market by influencing everything from the direction […]
#mortgage #applications Mortgage applications rose nearly 7% in the latest wk on low interest rates and strong refinance activity, an industry group reports. Mortgage applications increased 6.8% from 1 wk earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending 7 August. The Market Composite Index, a measure of […]
#home #mortgages #loans #economy #Fed #interestrates #buyers $DIA $QQQ $SPY $XAU $GLD $USO $USD US Mortgages rates marked another record low, boosting the $35-T housing market, a very bright spot for the economy. The average for a 30-yr fixed loan fell to 2.88%, the lowest in nearly 50 yrs of record keeping by Freddie Mac. It was […]
#Dollar #rates #yields #C19coronavirus $USD $DXY $EUR $GBP $JPY EUR rose the most in a decade in July, the GBP marked its best July since Y 1990, and for the 1st time this year, every major currency in the world rose against the Buck. It is all thanks to the USD’s 4.6% dive, its biggest […]
#gold #XAU #GLD #silver #XAG #SLV #rally #USD #Treasuries #yields #interest #Fed $XAU $GLD $XAG $SLV $USD Deepening negative real yields in the US Treasury market are driving a this rally in gold that is seeing the precious Yellow metal moving toward record highs. Bullion has gained 24% this year and is about $40 from […]
#mortgage #rates #home #loans For the 2nd wk running, US mortgage rates hit new lows. Demand for mortgages rose as home-loan interest rates continued to fall to new record lows. Total mortgage application volume rose 5.1% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. The refinance index increased […]
#Gold #Silver #preciousmetals #Fed #ECB #RBA #C19Coronavirus #inflation #currencies #stocks $XAU $GLD $XAG $SLV $USD $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Analysts and economists are calculating the destruction the C-19 coronavirus chaos, and traders in the financial markets trying to understand the ramifications of the virus’ presence. The market trends demonstrate that our prior precious metals forecasts continue […]
$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX #Paul Ebeling #Wall Street #recovery #cash #technicals #patterns #Fed #Bulls Last Week’s Action The indexes are in consolidation mode, and the leaders are leading pulling back and testing their moves, the trend is up and the Bulls are still in charge. Financials received bids ahead of the release of the […]
$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Inflation in the US is likely to come back slowly, keeping the Fed from raising interest rates for an extended period. Over the next couple of years, prices are likely to increase to the 2.3% to 2.4% level, as the Fed has learned its lesson from past interest rate increases […]
$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Last Week’s Action Stock indexes are consolidating, the economic data impresses, as headlines focus on new China Virus cases in the wake of massive new testing. Last Friday was Quad Witching expiration, and we saw leaders continue to lead. Perhaps other sectors will now start to contribute to the uptrend. […]
$XAU $XAG $GLD $SLV $USD Gold, forests, property stocks, inflation-linked bonds, these are just some of the assets investors are betting lots money into on the view that the recent explosion of government spending and Fed stimulus may rouse inflation from its 10 yrs+ sleep. If inflation really is “the dog that didn’t bark”, failing […]
Last Wednesday Fed Chairman Powell spoke showing he has the power to move markets when it comes to monetary policy and how to help deal with the current C-19 coronavirus chaos’s instant recession. The FOMC was not expected make any change regarding Zero interest rates and nothing really new on the Fed’s ongoing asset purchases […]
$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX US mortgage rates fell to a record low for the 4th time since the C-19 coronavirus chaos began disturbing financial markets earlier this year. The average for a 30-yr fixed-rate home loan was 3.13%, down from 3.21% last week and a low point in almost 50 yrs of data-keeping by […]
$LVS, $HAS $BBY Resilient dividend-paying companies, as some investors work to find safe sources of income during this ultra-low interest frame. Dividend stocks are the theme now as high yield stocks have outperformed during both rising and falling US bond yields, irrespective of market direction and across economic cycles. We believe that the safest bets for dividends […]
$SPY $SPX Last Thursday, Wall Street professionals showed retail investors who bet that stocks would continue their uninterrupted drive North, that they are incharge. Yes, there are lots of investors who missed out on Wall Street’s recovery since the 23 March lows and may take advantage of the midweek selloff to enter. That suggest some […]
$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $BA $VXX President Trump says the US economy will be back and better than ever next year. Thursday, President Trump hammered the Fed after Fed Chairman Powell offered a grim outlook on the US economy, saying there is a “long road” ahead. “I see the numbers also, and do MUCH better […]
$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Wednesday, the Trump Fed signaled it will provide years of extraordinary support for an economy clawing back from the C-19 coronavirus chaos. Th FOMC projects a 6.5% decline in GDP this yr and a 9.3% unemployment rate at yr’s end. In the 1st economic projections of the virus quarter, US central […]
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) praised The Trump Administration Tuesday for organizing its agencies to deliver medical emergency aid “incredibly quickly,” which helped the country withstand the devastating economic effects of the C-19 coronavirus chaos. CBO director Phillip L. Swagel said Congress moved fast to approve its stimulus bill, while the Treasury Department and the Small Business Administration (SBA) […]
$XAU $GLD $XAG $SLV $PLAT Gold rose Monday after the prior session’s decline, that boosted by hopes of dovish monetary policy from the FOMC Wednesday. Spot gold rose 0.5% to 1,692.86 oz by 12:23 p ET (1623 GMT) US gold futures rose 0.9% to 1,698.10 oz Expect the Fed to continue to continue it dovish […]
The Fed has been far more communicative that this C-19 coronavirus chaos will not be the end of the economy as we know it. Chairman Powell’s “whatever it takes” pledge to avoid a depression and to get the economy back to growth again has added fuel to the economy, after having been chided by President […]
$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX Negative interest rates in the US were once taboo. The C-19 coronavirus chaos changed that, and has forced investors to give serious thought to the implications of such a drastic policy shift. Rate options, which gauge monetary policy expectations, Monday implied a 23% probability that the Key federal funds rate will […]
$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX For years, the high-yield saving products were a success for both consumers and financial institutions alike. After getting almost Zero interest from big US banks, individuals who parked their excess cash with the likes of Ally Financial Inc., Barclays Plc, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s consumer bank, Marcus, or HSBC Holdings Plc’s HSBC Direct […]
Here we assess whether this is a sustainable form of monetary policy for central banks in some countries at risk of a deflationary depression. A negative interest rate policy happens when a country’s central bank lowers the nominal monetary policy interest rate below Zero. In other words, commercial banks must pay to lodge some of […]
$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Wednesday, President Trump said he strongly believes the Fed should have negative interest rates, but gave a modicum of approval to Fed Chairman Powell who said earlier in the day the FOMC would not lower rates beyond Zero. President Trump said Mr. Powell, who he frequently criticizes, has improved in […]
Tuesday, President Trump said the US should receive the “gift” of negative interest rates, after 3 Fed officials signaled the central bank is not keen on idea. President Trump has expressed his desire for the US to pay negative interest on its debt. “As long as other countries are receiving the benefits of Negative Rates, […]
President Trump support negative rates. Recall he has said, “Fed should cut rates to ‘Zero or less.’” Forward-looking indicators are seeing the possibility of negative interest rates by the end of this year or the beginning of next year. This is happening despite repeated statements by Fed officials that negative rates are unlikely and undesirable. […]
Wednesday afternoon, Federal Chairman Powell said the coronavirus has brought the economy to an “abrupt halt” and it was uncertain how long the slowdown would last, as officials held interest rates near Zero, and pledged to keep them there until the nation was back on track. “Economic activity will likely drop at an unprecedented rate […]
The COVID-19 coronavirus lockdown is having a huge impact on the US economy, but on the reopening it is very likely that we will see a strong comeback. “The 2nd quarter is pretty awful,” former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said Tuesday in a TV interview. “But if the issue of the virus works its way as […]
Unprecedented situations require unprecedented actions. That’s why the Fed should fight a rapidly deepening recession by taking interest rates below Zero for the 1st time ever. When the FOMC holds its regular policy-making meeting next week, all the warning lights will be flashing Red. The unemployment rate is expected to reach 2X digits by June. […]
The President has taken control of the Fed. Notably, when the law was written creating the Fed, the Secretary of the Treasury was designated as the head of the Central Bank. We are returning to that era, and like it or not the Fed is being politicized. For a long, long time, the Fed played […]
The European Central Bank (ECB) will take further action if necessary to keep prices stable in line with its mandate, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said in an interview Saturday. With inflation below its 2% target, the ECB will have to keep interest rates “very low” and liquidity “very abundant”, Mr. Villeroy, who is […]
$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Just In: Goldman Says US Stocks Have Likely Bottomed Unprecedented policy support and a flattening viral curve have “dramatically” cut risks, the bank said early Monday in a note. Despite the COVID-19 coronavirus, ‘new’ Bull market can run Last week was a shortened week, here is how it played US […]
$XAU $GLD $USD Volatile stock markets and the outbreak of the coronavirus helped drive holdings in gold-backed ETFs to record highs in Y 2020. The buying is a clear indication of the prominent role of gold ETFs in investors’ portfolios, especially during periods of uncertainty and panic. Gold-backed ETFs saw $4.9-B of inflows in February, […]
$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Jim Cramer Monday that “there will be a huge amount of pent-up demand” for stocks when the threat of the coronavirus is contained. “There will be a huge amount of pent-up demand when this is done. And it will be done,” he said. “Look for companies that […]
Sunday, the Fed took emergency action to help the economy withstand the coronavirus by slashing its benchmark interest rate to near Zero and saying it would buy $700-B in Treasury and mortgage bonds. The surprise announcement signaled its concern that the viral outbreak will depress economic growth in the coming months and that it is […]
The Big A: We expect the Fed to roll out measures beyond interest rate cuts and bond purchases to ensure financial markets keep operating smoothly and banks have ample liquidity during the coronavirus outbreak. The Fed can innovate! Last week, the Fed delivered an emergency rate cut and is expected to lower them more when […]
$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX A Bear market is confirmed when an index sinks 20% or more below its most recent closing high. For the 2nd time this week, the S&P 500 triggered a 15-min trading halt after falling by 7.0% shortly after the open following more economic disruptions caused by the coronavirus. Note: New […]
$XAU $GLD It looks to me like it does not matter in here whether global stocks are rising or falling investors keep scooping up gold. Holdings in gold-backed ETFs rose by 55 tonnes in the last 3 days accounting for almost 33% of YTD in the last 3 days. As a safe-haven asset, demand for […]
$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Tuesday, Wall Street’s Bulls came back to life rising from the edge of Bear market confirmation as bargain-hunters and notions of government stimulus calmed investors’ fears surrounding the coronavirus and prospects of a recession. All 3 major US stock market indexes spiked nearly 5% the day after they suffered their […]
$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $XAU, $XAG, $CU, $OIL, $USO, $VXX FLASH: The S&P 500 staged a 70-pt rally during the final hr of trade, which led to a significant improvement in final sector standings, though all 11 sectors finished in the Red. The US economy is likely growing at a 3.1% annualized rate in Q-1, […]
$USD $GLD $XAU …the USD will weaken, gold will strengthen, short-term interest rates to Zero. Investment guru Jeffrey Gundlach says that he believes the Fed panicked in cutting interest rates earlier this week. “When I say panicked, it does not mean it is not justified. Sometimes panic is justified,” the Bond King said. The Bond […]
$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX A drop in interest rates in response to the Fed’s rate cut is adding urgency to a hiring spree across the mortgage industry. Executives at of the nation’s 15 biggest mortgage lenders, already gearing up for a busy Y 2020, anticipate hiring thousands of employees this year to keep up […]
$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX The US economy grew moderately in Q-4, the government confirmed, and may be facing a rocky road in early Y 2020 on the notion that coronavirus will hobble it, and bring on a recession. The economy grew by an unrevised 2.3% in Y 2019, the slowest annual growth in 3 […]
$USD Monday, Financial markets upped bets that the Fed will be pressed to cut interest rates to cushion a feared hit to economic growth from the spread of the coronavirus. US interest rates futures rose to their highest marks since last Fall as evidence the virus was spreading further outside its original epicenter of China […]
$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Friday, White House adviser Larry Kudlow said the “blowout” jobs report was just the cherry on top of a very strong economic start to this New Year. Manufacturing, job growth and the stock market all boosted the economy in January, he said. “I think we’re in very strong territory right […]
$XAU $GLD $XAG $SLV Thursday, Gold prices rose for a 2nd day running as the momentum behind this week’s rally in risk assets faded ahead of the US NFPs report Friday. By 11:10a EST (1610 GMT), gold futures for delivery on the COMEX exchange were up 0.3% at 1,567.15, while spot gold was up 0.4% […]
$XAU $GLD $SPY $SPX The S&P 500 posted a record high Wednesday at +37.10, or 1.1% at 3334.69 The reverse side of market optimism was the correction of safe-havens such as JPY and Gold. The JPY declined against the Buck, lead USDJPY to its highs in a 1. wks near 109.50, showing a rebound from the 200-Day SMA. Gold dropped […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX , $VXX The Fed held interest rates steady Wednesday at its first policy meeting of the year, the head of the central bank pointed to continued moderate economic growth and a “strong” job market, and giving no sign of any imminent changes in borrowing costs. “We believe the current stance of […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Less than 1 hr after Fed officials begin a two-day policy meeting, President Trump calls for a cut in rates. “The Fed should get smart & lower the Rate to make our interest competitive with other Countries which pay much lower even though we are, by far, the high standard,” […]
$XAU $GLD “Gold is a place you want to be. I think that it’s partly because its inversely correlated with interest rates. But it’s also an insurance policy when things go wrong,” David Rosenberg said. “There’s no such thing as a no-brainer, but this is close.” Gold is off to a terrific start this year […]
$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX US stocks will continue to rise this year on very little chance of a recession, and low inflation driving steady economic growth, with real GDP growing around 2.0%, and inflation remains below 2.0%. That is our outlook for Y 2020. We do not see a recession in this year’s US […]
$USD After 4 rate hikes in Y 2018, the Fed cut interest rates 3X in Y 2019, making a remarkable and sharp U-turn in its monetary policy. The big shift reflected that Fed officials’ assessment of potential risks to the US economy has dramatically changed over the course of the year, due to slowing global […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $XRT, $IWM Our New Year is here and we are just a few weeks away from the Chinese New Year, so not too early to share some of my favorite Chinese Astrologer’s thoughts on the coming Year of the Rat, he is famous for his predictions, but not perfect. The background: […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX By almost every measure the US economy did well in Y 2019 though growth was slower than Y 2018. For next year, contrary to the consensus view from most economists, economic growth will accelerate. And growth could increase even more after Y 2020. President Trump has set the stage for […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The S&P 500 finished little changed Friday and the NAS Comp ended an 11-day streak of gainers after some late-session weakness, the DJIA another record as investors play the Santa Claus rally. The DJIA rose 23.53 points, or 0.08%, to 28,644.92, the S&P 500 gained 0.07 points, or 0.00%, to […]
After 3 interest rate cuts this year, the economy is in good shape 2 Fed policy makers said Wednesday, underscoring the consensus at the Fed for keeping borrowing costs where they are for the time being. “I think the economy is doing remarkably well,” Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans told the Economic Club […]
$SPY, $RUTX, $USD Last Christmas, the longest Bull market in our lifetime came within points of dying as the Fed raised interest rates. Some pundits say that every 3 years or so something pushes the Bull market to the brink of extinction, before a last-minute escape, that there is a record of support that underpins […]
Rising real estate prices helped drive US household wealth to $113.8-T in the July through October frame, a report by the Fed showed Thursday. That compares to an downwardly revised $113.3-T net worth for households in Q-2 of Y 2019, the Fed said. The US economy is experiencing its longest expansion on record and households and households […]
Chairman Powell’s Press Conference: The record-long US economic expansion is in its 11th year, a Bull run that has driven unemployment to the lowest level since Y 1969 even while failing to sustainably deliver inflation at the Fed’s 2% target. Officials also released new Quarterly forecasts showing the following:: The median estimate for the fed […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Americans increased their spending in October at the fastest rate in 3 months even though income growth was essentially flat, its weakest showing in 13 months. The Commerce Department said Wednesday that consumer spending rose 0.3% last month, the best gainer since a 0.5% rise in July. An inflation gauge that is […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The S&P 500 declined 0.1% Tuesday in a mixed session. The retail industry was under pressure following disappointing quarterly results and guidance from Home Depot (HD 225.86, -12.99, -5.4%) and Kohl’s (KSS 47.02, -11.38, -19.5%) The NAS Comp climbed to a fresh record on the back of gains in mega cap tech companies even as the […]
$USD President Trump said he “protested” US interest rates that he considers too high relative to other developed countries in a meeting Monday with Fed Chairman Powell. Mr. Powell met with President Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin at the White House residence in the morning at the President’s request to discuss the economy. It […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The S&P 500 (+0.1%), DJIA (+0.1%), and NAS Comp (+0.1%) eked out incremental gains to close at record highs Monday. The Russell 2000 (-0.3%) closed in negative territory. Before President Trump, China has intended to take over the world. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow proclaimed that President Trump will […]
Fed Chairman Powell likes to avoid any hint of politics in his public statements, but in a non-controversial response to a Question about US government borrowing Wednesday, he weighed in on one of the core issues in the political debate over how to manage the economy. Over the past year in particular, many mainstream economists […]
$XAU, $GLD, $USD Gold prices bounced off session lows and closed in the Green Tuesday, despite a stronger USD. Yields remain edged lower. German data is showing some small signs of improvement. President Trump in a speech before the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday to hammered the Fed, saying that although the stock […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX S&P 500 closed lower on trade concerns, but finished the month in the Green. Thursday, President Trump hammered the Fed and Chairman Powell in a Tweet, that despite interest rates dropping by another Quarter point. In a 2-part Tweet, President Trump argued that the Fed has placed the United States at a […]
The US housing market is still benefiting from lower mortgage rates, as more Americans signed contracts to buy homes in September. The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday that its pending home sales index rose 1.5% from August to September to 108.7, its highest level since December 2017. Measured Y-Y, pending home sales have risen 3.9%. Home […]
$XAU, $XAG, $GLD, $SLV, $USD Gold prices climbed above the Key $1,500 mark Thursday to mark their highest finish in about two weeks, as a monthly drop in U.S. durable goods orders buoyed haven appeal for the metal. The dismal durable goods number is helping boost gold prices as recession fears are again on the […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Tuesday, President Trump continued his attack on the Fed, and this time saying Chairman Powell and central bankers were “their own worst enemies” after a US manufacturing index posted the weakest monthly reading since the end of the last recession in Y 2009. “As I predicted, Jay Powell and the […]
$XAU, $GLD Gold is back in a short-term Bull mode with prices creeping up from $1,500 over the last 3 days of trading. The Big picture A lot could happen, but it is looking good.The problems causing renewed interest in gold as a hedge and as a safe-haven have no clear resolution. There are now […]
$XAU, $GLD, $USD One of the most common reasons to buy gold is to use it as a stable store of value. This analysis uses 50 yrs of history to test that common belief, and finds it lacking for it misses the best parts of investing in gold. The graph above will be developed, and […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $USD, $VXX This week the Fed cut interest rates for the 2nd time since the Great Recession, and found its hands full with another event with potentially catastrophic implications for the economy. In short, liquidity in the repo markets, a critical cog in the financial system machine seized Tuesday. In response, […]
More than 67% of North American CFOs (chief financial officers) surveyed by CNBC say President Trump will be re-elected in Y 2020. About a 25% believe former Vice President Joe Biden will win. This is the 1st time the CNBC Global CFO Council survey has asked executives about the upcoming elections. The survey also showed that a majority […]
$XAU, $GLD, $GOLD, $NEM, $USD Emerging markets have/are adding to gold holdings, undeterred by prices near their highest levels in more than 6 years, as countries such as Russia and China diversify their Fx reserves, a trend we believe that is likely to continue. Central bank buying is important to the supply/demand dynamic for the […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX With US-China trade tensions having roiled financial markets, investors are counting on support for stocks coming from a Fed willing to keep cutting interest rates to help the US economy avoid a severe downturn. A 1/4th pt rate reduction is expected when the FOMC issues its next policy statement this […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $SOY, $VXX US stocks extend rally on trade developments, ECB stimulus measures Tech gains led the S&P 500 and the NAS Comp higher, while financials gave the biggest boost to the blue-chip DJIA, which closed up for the 7th session running, its longest winning streak since May. Stocks rose worldwide as […]
In a series of Tweets early Wednesday, President Trump wrote that “boneheads” at the Fed should lower interest rates to Zero or below so that the US could decrease its borrowing costs. As a property developer, President Trump is thinking about negative rates from the perspective of a borrower. But, the Fed’s lukewarm appetite for negative […]
Friday, President Trump hammered Fed Chairman Powell for not lowering interest rates, asking “where did I find this guy,” in a Tweet. President Trump was responding to Jim Cramer, who said Friday that Mr. Powell should acknowledge that he should not have raised rates last year. “Why can’t the Fed chief say, ‘You know what? I […]
$SPY, $XAU, $BAC, $JPL, $USB All US financial markets are closed Monday, in observance of Labor Day. It may have taken $204-B of equity outflows this year, but the BofAML Bull & Bear Indicator is finally flagging a contrarian “buy signal,” its 1st since 3 January. Bank of America Merrill Lynch (NYSE:BAC) is Bullish on […]
$XAU, $USD, $EUR All US financial markets are closed Monday in observance of Labor Day Investors should allocate about 10% of their assets in physical gold, Mark Mobius, who manages about $4-B in assets, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum in an interview Saturday. Mr. Mobius, who is in Mumbai to promote his book “Invest […]