$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Tuesday, President Trump continued his attack on the Fed, and this time saying Chairman Powell and central bankers were “their own worst enemies” after a US manufacturing index posted the weakest monthly reading since the end of the last recession in Y 2009. “As I predicted, Jay Powell and the […]
$XAU, $GLD Gold is back in a short-term Bull mode with prices creeping up from $1,500 over the last 3 days of trading. The Big picture A lot could happen, but it is looking good.The problems causing renewed interest in gold as a hedge and as a safe-haven have no clear resolution. There are now […]
$XAU, $GLD, $USD One of the most common reasons to buy gold is to use it as a stable store of value. This analysis uses 50 yrs of history to test that common belief, and finds it lacking for it misses the best parts of investing in gold. The graph above will be developed, and […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $USD, $VXX This week the Fed cut interest rates for the 2nd time since the Great Recession, and found its hands full with another event with potentially catastrophic implications for the economy. In short, liquidity in the repo markets, a critical cog in the financial system machine seized Tuesday. In response, […]
More than 67% of North American CFOs (chief financial officers) surveyed by CNBC say President Trump will be re-elected in Y 2020. About a 25% believe former Vice President Joe Biden will win. This is the 1st time the CNBC Global CFO Council survey has asked executives about the upcoming elections. The survey also showed that a majority […]
$XAU, $GLD, $GOLD, $NEM, $USD Emerging markets have/are adding to gold holdings, undeterred by prices near their highest levels in more than 6 years, as countries such as Russia and China diversify their Fx reserves, a trend we believe that is likely to continue. Central bank buying is important to the supply/demand dynamic for the […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX With US-China trade tensions having roiled financial markets, investors are counting on support for stocks coming from a Fed willing to keep cutting interest rates to help the US economy avoid a severe downturn. A 1/4th pt rate reduction is expected when the FOMC issues its next policy statement this […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $SOY, $VXX US stocks extend rally on trade developments, ECB stimulus measures Tech gains led the S&P 500 and the NAS Comp higher, while financials gave the biggest boost to the blue-chip DJIA, which closed up for the 7th session running, its longest winning streak since May. Stocks rose worldwide as […]
In a series of Tweets early Wednesday, President Trump wrote that “boneheads” at the Fed should lower interest rates to Zero or below so that the US could decrease its borrowing costs. As a property developer, President Trump is thinking about negative rates from the perspective of a borrower. But, the Fed’s lukewarm appetite for negative […]
Friday, President Trump hammered Fed Chairman Powell for not lowering interest rates, asking “where did I find this guy,” in a Tweet. President Trump was responding to Jim Cramer, who said Friday that Mr. Powell should acknowledge that he should not have raised rates last year. “Why can’t the Fed chief say, ‘You know what? I […]
$SPY, $XAU, $BAC, $JPL, $USB All US financial markets are closed Monday, in observance of Labor Day. It may have taken $204-B of equity outflows this year, but the BofAML Bull & Bear Indicator is finally flagging a contrarian “buy signal,” its 1st since 3 January. Bank of America Merrill Lynch (NYSE:BAC) is Bullish on […]
$XAU, $USD, $EUR All US financial markets are closed Monday in observance of Labor Day Investors should allocate about 10% of their assets in physical gold, Mark Mobius, who manages about $4-B in assets, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum in an interview Saturday. Mr. Mobius, who is in Mumbai to promote his book “Invest […]
Again Friday, President Trump hammered the Fed in 3 Tweets; declaring in 1 that the US economy does not “have a tariff problem, we have a Fed problem.” “The Euro is dropping against the dollar ‘like crazy,’ giving them a big export and manufacturing advantage … and the Fed does NOTHING!” President Trump said in 1 […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Wall Street dipped Tuesday, weighed down by financial stocks as a deepening of the Treasury yield curve inversion raised recession worries again, and uncertainty over the progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China. A deepening of the inversion in the yield curve between the 2-year and 10-year […]
The German government sold 30-yr bonds at a negative interest rate in a sign of the clouds over markets and future growth as well as increased expectations that more central bank stimulus is coming soon. The sale adds to the piles of negative-yielding bonds currently held by investors, indicating they expect growth and inflation to […]
Traders and investors have been asking what is the “inverted yield curve”, this unusual bond market phenom came on briefly last week for the 1st time in over 12 years and shook Wall Street with talk that an economic downturn was imminent. Following a tweet from President Trump referencing the “CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!”, the […]
$GLD, $XAU, $BTC, $USD Investment guru, Mark Mobius, gave a blanket endorsement to buying gold, saying accumulating bullion will reap long-term rewards as leading central banks loosen monetary policy and the rise of cryptocurrencies serves only to reinforce demand for genuinely hard assets. “Gold’s long-term prospect is up, up and up, and the reason why […]
$XAU $GLD The gold price market technicals and fundamentals are aligned in here. The precious Yellow metal is up about 17% YTD, and that is up nearly 28% from this time last year. With prices back at $1,513 oz, some investors and market watchers are back to looking for Northside marks at $1,800 – 2,000 […]
There is now the “threat of deflation” in the US according to economic adviser Stephen Moore, who says that President Trump needs a catalyst in the trade dispute with China and the Fed can cut interest rates to provide it. “I am calling for the feds to have an emergency meeting next week to announce a […]
$XAU, $GLD, $GDX, $GOLD, $NEM, $RGLD After a big letdown from the Fed, it looked like the recent gold price surge would pause to refresh. Then President Trump took to Twitter the next day and escalated the China trade dispute. The price of gold did not just reverse Fed-induced losses but surged 6% over the […]
$XAU, $GLD, $USD Money manager, Jeffrey Gundlach predicts that gold’s price will continue North along with the run up in negative-yielding bonds. “At this point, I think the way to think about it is, as long as the volume of negative interest rate bonds outstanding increases, it’s quite likely that gold moves higher in a […]
Wednesday, President Trump said the Federal Reserve must cut rates “bigger and faster” for the United States to be competitive against other countries. The stock market reversed and finished mixed with a Very Bullish bias. Wall Street likes cheap money “Our problem is a Federal Reserve that is too proud to admit their mistake of […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Last week the market was in consolidation mode and tested the 50-Day MA’s and bounced and… Employment report showed solid jobs growth in July Major averages found buying support at 50-Day MAs INDUSTRY WATCH Strong: Real Estate, Utilities, Consumer Staples Weak: Information Technology, Energy, Materials The CBOE Volatility Index has […]
$XAU, $XAUUSD, $GLD FLASH: The Gold markets pulled back during the week, but then found enough support at the uptrend line of the ascending triangle to reverse and break above the Key $1450 mark Friday, US Gold futures settled near 6-year highs +1.8% at $1,457.50 oz, helped along by prospects of safe-haven investments,trade threats from […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Positive finish to a positive week. Again, the longest Bull market in history has relied on low interest rates, and weakness in jobs. So, if everyone else is worried about stocks, capitalize on the fear and make a a lot of money as the market climes the wall of worry, fear […]
FLASH: Homeowners enjoy a $9.7-T gain in equity in last 10 years, up from $6.1-T in Q-1 of Y 2009.. “We are lifting up forgotten communities, creating exciting new opportunities, and helping every American find their path to the American Dream, the Dream of a great job, a safe home, and a better life for […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $GLD, $XAU, $USD FLASH: Investors now have no doubt that the Fed will cut interest rates on 31 July for the 1st time in more than 10 years and it is the beginning for the path to near Zero, with no recession in sight. For weeks, money managers have bet on a […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: US Q-2 GDP higher than estimates on strong consumer spending as the ‘Tight’ Fed, China trade dispute lowed growth Friday, economist Stephen Moore said he is “relieved” that the economy is at 2.1% growth, but said the numbers are not where they should be because of several factors, including […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: The longest Bull market in history has relied on low interest rates, and weakness in jobs. So, if everyone else is worried about stocks, capitalize on the fear and make a a lot of money as the market climes the wall of worry, fear is your friend, and you saw it […]
$XAU, $GLD, $GOLD, $NEM, $USD FLASH: The prospects of the Fed cutting interest rates to near Zero this year has gold rallying to 6 year highs. Institutional investors like gold as a hedge against uncertain times, as gold has held value over centuries. The Big Q1: But does it make sense for individual investors? Here […]
Friday, President Trump renewed his criticism of the Fed, complaining that the US is paying “much higher interest rates” than other countries, even as central bankers prepare for a meeting later this month at which they are widely expected to ease policy. “Because of the faulty thought process we have going for us at the […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $XAU, $GLD, $VXX Billionaire Investment Guru, Ray Dalio thinks the current era of low interest rates and QE may be coming to an end, and his answer to a new market paradigm that could see escalating conflict between capitalists and socialists is simple, Buy Gold. “I believe that it would be […]
$GLD, $XAU, $USD Gold prices turned lower Tuesday after a strong retail sales reading sparked buying interest in the USD and pushed Treasury yields higher. Retail sales gained 0.4% in June, outpacing consensus forecasts for a meager 0.1% advance, the positive reading pushed the .DXY and bond yields higher. The USD-denominated precious Yellow metal reacts negatively […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: The longest Bull market in history has relied on low interest rates, and weakness in jobs. So, if everyone else is worried about stocks, capitalize on the fear and make a a lot of money as the market climes the wall of worry, fear is your friend, and you saw […]
President Trump wants the Fed to lower interest rates at a time when he may be sizing up his 2 latest picks for Fed governor as successors to Chairman Powell. If the Fed “knew what it was doing” it would cut rates, President Trump told reporters before he boarded Air Force One back to DC […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: More than anything else, the longest Bull market in history has relied on low interest rates, and weakness in jobs. So, if everyone else is worried about stocks, capitalize on the fear and make a a lot of money as the market climes the wall of worry, fear is your friend, […]
$XAU, $GLD, $USD, $EUR Shayne and I see gold testing to $1384ish and then setting up to drive North, potentially topping $1,500 oz, as interest rates head lower, central banks extend purchases, and uncertainty surrounding geopolitics and cryptocurrencies fans demand. Gold on the COMEX finished -1.4% to $1400.95 oz. “I love gold,” said Mark Mobius, […]
Friday, President Trump reaffirmed his view that a Fed interest rate cut would help the US economy grow more quickly, and said Fed does not know what they are doing. Growth “would be like a rocket ship” if the Fed eased, President Trump told reporters at the White House Friday as he prepared to travel to […]
$DIA, $SPY, $SOX, $QQQ, $RUTX, $XAU, $GLD, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Last week we saw Wall Street stocks and Gold rally finishing a super June as the market climbed a wall of worries. The stock market has rallied significantly over the past 6 months. The Big Q: Is this Bull Run sustainable? The stock market has rallied […]
$GLD, $XAU, $SLV, $USD,$USO, $OIL, $WEAT, $CORN, $SOY FLASH: Gold Down, USD Up, Crude Oil Up, Stocks Up Notes: Investors and Traders await the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi later this week for signs of a de-escalation in the trade dispute. The 2 world leaders will meet at the G-20 Summit in Japan. Just in from […]
$GLD, $XAU, $SLV, $USD,$USO, $OIL, $WEAT, $CORN, $SOY FLASH: Gold Down, USD Up, Crude Oil Up, Stocks Down “The Stars look to be aligning for the Gold market, Gold could rise as high as $1,500 by the end of the year”– PE The Big Q: Why the Melt Up? The Big A: If gold remains above previous […]
$GLD, $XAU, $SLV, $USD, $BTC, $USO, $OIL, $WEAT, $CORN, $SOY FLASH: Gold Up, USD Down, Crude Oil Off, Stocks Down “The Stars look to be aligning for the Gold market, Gold could rise as high as $1,500 by the end of the year”– PE The Big Q: Why? The Big A: If gold remains above previous highs […]
$DIA, $SPY, $SOX, $QQQ, $RUTX, $XAU, $GLD, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Last week we saw Wall Street stocks and Gold rally hard finishing solid on Quad Witching on the Fed’s Dovish policy position declared Wednesday afternoon. We are in the 2nd longest Bull Market in history that began precisely at 1:00p ET on 9 March 2009, and according […]
$GLD, $XAU, $SLV, $USD, $BTC, $USO, $OIL, $WEAT, $CORN, $SOY FLASH: Gold Up, USD Down, Crude Oil Firm, Stocks Up Notes: Investors are awaiting an expected meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi later this week for any signs of a de-escalation in a trade dispute. The 2 world leaders will meet on the sidelines of the G-20 […]
$XAU, $GLD, $USD FLASH: There has been a dramatic change in the sentiment of Gold Bugs Bold prices have risen this month, passing $1,400 oz for the 1st time since Y 2013. There have been good reasons to be Bullish the precious Yellow metal. Everything from Dovish central banks, technical indicators, negative-yielding bonds are all working […]
$GLD, $XAU, $SLV, $USD, $BTC, $USO, $OIL, $WEAT, $CORN, $SOY FLASH: Gold Spiked, USD Down, Crude Oil Up, Stocks Up Notes: The Fed Wednesday signaled interest rate cuts beginning as early as July, saying it is ready to battle growing global and domestic economic risks as it took stock of rising trade tensions and growing concerns about […]
$SDIA, $SPY, $SOX, $QQQ The S&P 500 (SPY) approached record highs Wednesday after the Fed signaled potential interest cuts later this year, reassuring Wall Street investors worried that the US-China trade war could stall economic growth. Saying it “will act as appropriate to sustain” economic expansion, the Fed signaled rate cuts of half a percentage […]
$GLD, $XAU, $SLV, $USD, $BTC, $USO, $OIL, $WEAT, $CORN, $SOY FLASH: Gold Spiked, USD Down, Crude Oil Up, Stocks Up Notes: The Fed Wednesday signaled interest rate cuts beginning as early as July, saying it is ready to battle growing global and domestic economic risks as it took stock of rising trade tensions and growing concerns about […]
FLASH: The market is leading the Fed Funds rate lower, signaling a rate cut soon. “We have tracked the Fed’s interest rates decisions for years,” writes Steven Hochberg, Elliot Wave theorist. In December, he wrote an article titled “Interest Rates Win Again as Fed Follows the Market,” where he observed that although most pundits believe that central […]
FLASH: Wednesday’s projections open the door for the Fed to lower rates in short order if the economy weakens, or US trade disputes with China and other nations escalate. Fed held interest rates steady Wednesday but signaled possible rate cuts of as much as half a percentage point over the remainder of this year, as […]
$GLD, $XAU, $SLV, $USD, $BTC, $USO, $OIL, $WEAT, $CORN, $SOY FLASH: Gold Off, USD Up, Crude Oil Up, Stocks Up Notes: President Trump said Tuesday he will have an extended meeting with Chinese President Xi at the G-20. The world’s 2 largest economies are in the middle of a costly trade dispute that has pressured financial markets […]
$GLD, $XAU, $SLV, $USD, $BTC, $USO, $OIL, $WEAT, $CORN, $SOY FLASH: Gold Up, USD Flat, Crude Oil Down, Stocks Off Notes: The New York Fed said Monday that its gauge of business growth in New York state posted a record fall this month to its weakest level in more than 2.5 years, suggesting an abrupt contraction in […]
$DIA, $SPY, $SOX, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX President Trump will not renominate Jerome Powell for another term as Fed Chairman if re-elected. “That will lead to very different monetary policy, so the Fed is not fully independent of politics,” former Fed VC Fischer, an Hussein Obama appointee, said Sunday at a talk in Israel. By criticizing […]
$DIA, $SPY, $SOX, $QQQ, $RUTX, $XAU, $GLD, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Last week we saw Wall Street stocks consolidate on light volume and the Fed signaled ‘Got Gold’ Mr. Market started seriously pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts. To be fair, the signal came from the Top of the economic politburo that matters that being […]
$GLD, $XAU, $SLV, $USD, $BTC, $USO, $OIL, $WEAT, $CORN, $SOY FLASH: Gold Subdued, USD Up, Crude Oil Up, Stocks Firm Notes: A Reuters poll showed a growing number of economists expect the Fed policymakers to cut interest rates this year, although the majority still see it holding steady. In Asia Gold: Gold prices subdued Monday after retreating from […]
$GLD, $XAU, $SLV, $USD, $USO, $OIL, $WEAT, $CORN, $SOY FLASH: Gold Up, USD Flat, Crude Oil Up, Stocks Off Notes: China will release May industrial production along with retail sales and investment numbers at 0700 GMT, analysts expect any improvement from April’s downbeat readings will be mostly marginal. Economists polled by Reuters expect industrial production in China […]
$DIA, $SPY, $SOX, Investors heavily exposed to US stocks just had their best week YTD. But the rebound has raised several questions related to market behavior, policy and economics. How they are answered will prove consequential not only for market prospects but for the global economy. And, notwithstanding the lack of decisive answers at this stage, […]
$DIA, $SPY, $SOX, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Last week we saw the best market week YTD This is another important week on Wall Street, after last week of released negativity, we will see how much power is left. The pattern suggest a roll over in here, but the Fed could/can/will change that. Expect Fed speakers to […]
$DIA, $SPY, $SOX, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX US household wealth marked a record in Q-1 as the stock market rallied, supporting consumers after Fed interest-rate hikes and trade dispute shocked investors late last year. Net worth for households and non-profit groups increased by $4.69-T, or 4.5%, to $108.6-T after a 3.7% drop in the prior frame, Federal […]
$DIA, $SPY, $SOX, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Friday saw S&P 500 and NAS break. Already Bearish in the rollovers, Friday they gapped below the 200-Day SMA. Broke the neckline in the head and shoulders Wednesday, held the 200-Day SMA that session and Thursday, ready to bounce. Then the next bad news and the 200-Day SMA […]
FLASH: This year’s dive in mortgage rates is giving Americans an incentive to upgrade to pricier houses. One result of falling borrowing costs is that buyers are able to afford bigger mortgages. Those seeking pricier properties are acting now because their choices are increasing, and profits from selling their current home can fund the down […]
US home prices rose at the slowest pace in 6.5 yrs in March, a sign weaker sales are keeping a lid on price increases. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 2.7% from a year earlier, down from an annual gainer of 3% in February. Price gains in formerly Red-hot cities such as Seattle […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: World stock markets were subdued as the US and UK exchanges were shuttered for national holidays. DJIA futures rose Monday night, along with S&P 500 futures and NAS futures. President Trump said Monday that Beijing “would like to make a deal,” but “we’re not ready” for a China trade […]
$XAU, $GLD, $USD Last week’s price action in gold indicates that buyers know where the value is, but the lack of conviction may be holding them back. This is likely because of the strong USD. But, if you look at the price action on 23 May, you will see just how powerful of an influence […]
$DIA, $SPY, $SOX, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Note: The Mins from the May FOMC meeting showed that policymakers are comfortable with the current fed funds rate range while “a number of participants” saw a moderation in risk and uncertainties surrounding their outlooks for the year. The Key takeaway is that the stock market has a reasonable […]
Economist and author Art Laffer, the architect behind the Reagan tax cuts that ushered in an era of economic prosperity for a generation, said the Federal Reserve should read market signs of falling bond yields and lower short-term interest rates and slash short-term interest rates. The bond market is signaling an increasing likelihood of the […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Some analysts think there may not be enough leadership to move the market higher now. Savvy money is playing quality to the Northside. At the same time there are good Southside setups that we are watching carefully for the break South Southside action delivers fast gainers, but what falls […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: US-China Trade News is now Old News, and No Deal makes No Difference, the Fed is the Key to stock action, buy the dips. Watching the Fed, and without a trade deal the fear of a slowdown will keep the Fed patience mode. The President and the Wall Street […]
$GLD, $XAU, $EUR, $USD FLASH: Gold prices could still surge 20% this year as precious-metal investors and speculators are right to believe in a bright future for the commodity. One international guru told Barron’s that he considers gold at current marks of just below $1,300 oz a “bargain.” His price target for the year is […]
By Jim Collins The Big Q: Will they or won’t they? The “they” in the Q is the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee FOMC), led by Chairman Jerome Powell. The action is obviously a cut in the fed funds target rate. Chairman Powell, much like his predecessors Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke, is fond […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Global equities declined Wednesday, capping a 3-day winning streak after the Fed held rates steady as expected, but comments from Fed Chairman Powell cast doubt on whether the central bank’s next move would be a rate cut, as expected. The Fed left its Key interest rate unchanged Wednesday and […]
FLASH: Faced with continuing economic growth and below-target inflation, the Fed should keep policy on hold at its May FOMC meeting. The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady at its policy meeting this week as policymakers balance recent stronger-than-expected US economic growth Vs weak inflation. Officials have given no signal in recent weeks […]
FLASH: White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow says the Fed should still cut interest rates despite strong economic growth in Q-1. The government said GDP, expanded by 3.2% in Q-1 of this year, which the veteran financial guru and former Ronald Reagan adviser called “a blow out number.” “The inflation rate continues to slip lower […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Larry Kudlow said Thursday on TV: “I think the Fed is moving toward rate cuts. That is my view. It is true in the open market, the funds rate has traded a bit high, but I think they are moving toward rate cuts.” Note: Slowing global growth has not […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: S&P 500 and NAS Comp marked all-time closing highs The S&P 500 index closed at a record high, surpassing the highs it set last September and recouping all the ground it lost in the Fed engineered attempt to push it into a Bear market late last year. The NAS […]
Source: Thompson Reuters US home sales fell more than expected in March as rising demand stoked by declining mortgage rates and slowing house price inflation continued to be frustrated by a lack of properties, especially in the lower-priced segment of the market. The report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) on Monday could temper expectations of […]
Sentiment among US home-builders climbed to a 6-month high in April, another indication that the housing market is gathering momentum during the Key Spring season. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose 1 point to 63, matching the median estimate in Bloomberg’s survey of economists, on improvements in present sales and buyer traffic, […]
$XAU, $GLD, $USD President Trump’s plans to nominate Stephen Moore and Herman Cain to the Fed board, and that move points back to The Gold Standard, a policy option once advocated by both men and President Trump himself. The Big Q: What is the case for returning to The Gold Standard? The Big A: Is […]
$GLD, $XAU, $USD FLASH: Gold could 2X overnight, especially if President Trump uses it as a weapon in his battle Vs the Fed. The Fed controls the Buck, the Buck is the world’s trading currency, and so the Fed controls the world. A stronger USD hurts the world’s growth prospects. It also hurts President Trump’s […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RURX, $VXX FLASH: Wall Street finished flat to little changed in front of earnings season The stock market finished little changed Thursday in a tight-ranged trading session. The S&P 500 finished fractionally higher, as RSI from financial and industrial stocks helped mitigate losses from shares of healthcare companies in front of earnings […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: The S&P 500 gained 0.5% Friday in a broad-based advance that was supported by a Goldilocks Employment Situation Report for March. The benchmark index advanced for the 7th session running, increasits its weekly gainer to 2.1%, and closed within 10 points of the 2900 level. The US labor market […]
$SPY FLASH: Earnings season just 2 weeks away US stocks ended the final trading day of Q-1 on a strong note Friday and the S&P 500 posted its best quarterly gainer since Y 2009, boosted by optimism over the latest round of trade talks between the US and China. A Chinese delegation led by Vice […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The just released data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau show that the US monthly international trade deficit decreased in January 2019 from $59.9% in December (revised) to $51.1-B as expected, as imports decreased and exports increased. The goods deficit decreased $8.2-B in January […]
$GLD, $USD, $EUR, $GBP, $CNY What we have been seeing over the past few years is that confidence in government is fading and the price of Gold is rising. Some current examples The UK House of Commons voted 413-202 last week to delay Britain’s exit from the EU. Despite resounding defeats, Prime Minister Theresa May […]
$USD, $SPY FLASH: The Fed’s decisive statement this week that interest rates are unlikely to rise this year sends a signal to US households: keep buying things. The Fed tries to guide the US economy by controlling the interest rate banks charge one another for overnight loans. Moving this rate up lifts other rates in […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: The latest fund manager survey from Bank of America showed the allocation to equities is at its lowest since September 2016 indicating that managed money missed the 2019 rally and will have to play catch up soon. The S&P 500 advanced 0.7% Tuesday, on Dovish expectations ahead of the […]
$USD White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow rejects criticism that the US economy is only growing because of a “sugar high” from The Trump Administration’s tax reform. He predicted that President Trump’s “pro-growth policies on taxes and regulation” will continue to stoke growth far into the future. Some economists contended that the economy is losing […]
The growing mystery of where China’s rapid slowdown is headed may become the biggest risk on the horizon. The world economy. Recession Watch: The global economy’s in its weakest shape since the financial crisis 10 years ago. China got more affirming evidence of its Big slowdown, with industrial output and retail sales softening and a […]
US mortgage home applications to buy and to refinanc increased last week as most borrowing costs fell in step with US bond yields tied to worries about slowing economic growth, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed on Wednesday. The Washington-based industry group’s seasonally adjusted index on mortgage activity rose 2.3% to 384.0 in the week […]
The global economy’s softened throughout Y 2018 has left the pace of expansion the weakest since the global financial crisis a decade ago. A new GDP tracker puts world growth at 2.1% on a Q-Q annualized basis, down from about 4% in the middle of last year. While there is a chance that the economy […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: This Bull Market is about to have its 10th Birthday! US household wealth fell 3.5% into the close of Y 2018 on the back of a Fed engineered stock market correction in Q-4 that threatened to weaken a near 10 year recovery. In its Quarterly Flow of Funds report, the […]
$USD FLASH: President Trump, “I want a strong dollar, but I want a dollar that’s great for our country not a dollar that is so strong that it is prohibitive for us to be dealing with other nations.” Saturday, President Trump renewed criticism of the Fed and said its tight monetary policy contributes to a […]
$SPY, $USD US homebuilding fell to a more than 2-year lows in December as construction of both single and multi-family housing declined, the latest indication that the economy lost momentum in the fourth quarter. Other details of the report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday were also downbeat and suggested that the housing market could remain sluggish […]
When the Fed’s FOMC policymakers met last month and put it 3-year rate-hike campaign on hold and backed ending a yearlong push to shrink their $4-T balance sheet, that was draining the liquidity out of the system and shrinking the wealth of American house holds by the trillions of dollars, they cited increased risks to […]
FLASH: The Trump Policy at Work for Americans The Key takeaways from the FOMC Minutes from the 29-30 January meeting, as follows: There was widespread agreement for the FOMC to end shrinkage of the $4-T balance sheet by the end of the year. The timetable ends uncertainty over whether shedding assets would further tighten financial conditions. The […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: FOMC Mins as expected; Fed will maintain patience in rate hikes and stop reducing assets on its balance sheet later this year. The Takeaway The FOMC Minutes said the central bank is going to be patient in raising rates and is likely to stop reducing the assets on its […]
The sentiment among US homebuilders rose in February for a 2nd month runnning exceeded all forecasts, as lower mortgage rates and a strong labor market help stabilize demand. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose to 62 from 58 amid broad improvement on gauges of sales, expectations and buyer traffic, data released Tuesday […]
$GLD, $GOLD, $USD, $GDX, $GS FLASH: The savvy observers see Golden opps in the precious Yellow metal and its miners. Last September in this column we suggested it was time for investors to add gold to their portfolios. And that data shows that since that time, gold has gained nearly 10%. Gold marked to a […]
US mortgage applications declined for a 4th week running even as some home borrowing costs fell to their lowest levels in more than 11 months, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday. The Washington-based industry group’s seasonally-adjusted index on borrower requests to lenders for a loan to buy a home and to refinance one decreased 3.7% to 364.8% […]
The Fed’s interest rate increase in December tipped monetary policy into a restrictive setting that may be pushing the economy farther from one of the Fed’s Key goals, James Bullard, President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, said last week. Mr. Bullard, in remarks to reporters after an appearance at St. Cloud State University […]
