President Trump, “the Fed is the problem, must lower rates.” US President Donald Trump renewed his criticism of the Fed Tuesday, describing the central bank as a “problem” as he called for lower interest rates. The latest Presidential assault on the nation’s monetary authority comes as stocks dive on concerns ranging from slower global growth, […]
As Market Leadership Rotates, Money Manager Speak Out $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ Following are the views of 7 money managers and strategists on what could conceivably put a brake on the selling in this market. This view is held by almost everyone: that a softening in Fed’s hawkish rhetoric and President Trump’s trade dispute talk would […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX DJIA higher, some testing leaders start to bounce back. Chipmakers show many interesting Northside setups. Fed Vice Chairman moves warm markets. The market action has given up some good patterns, the Big Q: Will the break North into year’s end. Today is Monday, the […]
Banks Will Feel Pain Once Crude Oil Price Fall Below $50 bbl $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $USO, $VXX The S&P 500 gained 1.1% Thursday to snap a 5-session losing streak. US-China trade optimism and strength from tech stocks, Banks can handle the energy-linked loans they have extended just as long as Crude Oil prices don’t drop […]
Looking for a Major Bottom in Gold $GLD, $USD Shayne and I do not believe that the weakness in Gold and gold mining stocks is over, the outlook is that another Southside leg getting underway. Should that happen, we are positioned to profit from it. Long-term investors, traders, and speculators should be aware of the […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Last Wednesday post election spike either stands on its own or platforms for a breakout. PPI at a 6 year high with prices +2.9% Y-Y. S&P 500, DJIA in excellent tests, NAS Comp work’in on it This week we see new leaders come up […]
The Strong US Economy is Continues to Grow The strong US economy is continuing to grow at a 2.9% annualized rate in Q-4, following the latest economic data, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed on Friday. This was unchanged from the pace for Q-4 GDP Atlanta Fed’s GDP program calculated on 2 November. The nowcast […]
US Consumer Sentiment on Track for Best Year Since 2000 Consumers ready to Pick Up Spending Heading into Holiday Season US consumers have greater certainty about job and income prospects. University of Michigan’s (MSI) consumer sentiment index flat to unchanged but remains strong US consumer sentiment topped analysts expectations to stay on track for its best […]
Two Years In, President Trump Holds Stock Market Bragging Rights $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Wednesday, US stocks rallied with broad gains led by the technology and healthcare sectors as investors made bets that a divided Congress would be good for equities. Democrats won control of the House Tuesday, while President Donald Trump’s Republican party […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX NFPs report solid, shows best wage growth in 10 years. China trade, market still struggles on news. 4 day Rally paused Friday All Eyes on the US Congressional Midterm Elections Tuesday Friday, stocks opened higher then faded, trending lower into early afternoon. Positives turned to […]
President Trump and The Fed Want to See Inflation $USD, $SPY, $GLD, $SLV The value of USD is determined by a number of variables. For example, this year’s trade wars with China have resulted in a stronger Buck and a weakened RMB Yuan. There are a few internal mechanisms that can be used to raise or […]
US Stock Rise in Strong Rally, Chipmakers Lead $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Tuesday, the major US stock market indexes rose more than 1%, driven by strong gainers for chip and transport stocks, as investors took advantage of cheaper prices following the recent pullback. All 11 S&P 500 sectors ended in the Green a day […]
US New Home Sales Fall as Mortgages Rates Rise Sales of new US single-family homes fell to a near 2-year low in September and data for the prior three months was revised lower, the latest indications that rising mortgage rates and higher prices were sapping demand for housing. Though housing accounts for a small share […]
Fed Will Fade, Halt Interest Rate Hikes After December $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Jim Cramer says Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hike interest rates once more in December and then stop. “I just think he’s going to blink,” Mr. Cramer said on TV Monday “It’s going to be 1 and done in December. That’s […]
US Stocks Test on Fed Rates and Global Growth Concerns $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The S&P 500 index closed just above its 200-Day MA, a Key indicator of long-term price trends. US stocks opened lower as Chinese stocks fell overnight, sparking concerns about the impact of trade tensions on China’s economy. Plus, concerns mounted […]
Fed’s Current Monetary Policy Raise the Risks of Recession President Trump has criticized recent Fed rate increases, arguing that they threatened economic growth. The Fed’s current monetary policy path would raise the risks of recession in an economy where recent, unexpectedly strong growth may start to taper anyway, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said […]
President Trump is Not Demanding a Monetary Policy Change at the Fed Wednesday, White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said that US President Trump was not demanding a policy change at the Fed. President Trump heaped more criticism on the Fed Tuesday, calling rising US interest rates his “biggest threat.” The Trump Administration official said […]
Fed Hawks Want to Chill Roaring US Economy Despite sharp criticism from President Donald Trump for raising interest rates, Fed policymakers remain generally united on the need to raise borrowing costs further, according to minutes from their most recent policy meeting. Every policymaker backed the Fed’s September rate increase, according to the minutes of the Sept. […]
US Homebuilder Sentiment Up On Solid Demand October’s pickup in sentiment across the 3 sub-indexes and all 4 regions indicates the market for newly-built homes Confidence among America’s homebuilders unexpectedly rose in October, registering the 1st gainer in 5 months amid falling lumber prices and solid demand, according to a report Tuesday from the National […]
President Trump, “The Fed is Out of Control” $DIA, SPY, QQQ, RUTX, VXX US President Donald Trump said he will not fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell but blamed an “out of control” FOMC for the worst stock market sell-off since February. President Trump also told reporters in the Oval Office Thursday morning that he knows […]
Looking at the US Home Mortgage Market $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ Last week the Dow Jones on Tuesday and Wednesday closed at all-time highs, this week it pulled back. That makes 4 new BEV Zeros in the BEV chart below in the past ten trading days, and that’s something I can’t complain about. If you compare […]
Mortgage Requests Fall, Borrowing Costs at 7-Year Highs US mortgage applications declined last week as home borrowing costs climbed to their highest levels in over 7 years, propelled by a spike in bond yields during last week’s market selloff, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday. The Washington-based industry group said its seasonally adjusted gauge on consumer […]
“Fed Raising Rates Too Fast” $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Tuesday, President Donald Trump criticized the Fed saying it is going too fast in raising rates when inflation is minimal and government data points to a strong economy. “Well, I like to see low interest rates. The Fed is doing what it thinks is necessary […]
S&P 500 Earnings Preview: Q-3 Y 2018 $SPY, $JPM, $C, $WFC, $USD Earnings reporting period is here once again, and it always commands a great deal of attention because earnings drive stock prices over the long term. The S&P 500 has been underpinned by impressive earnings growth. The Q-3 reporting frame, which begins in earnest […]
President Trump’s Economic Boom Can Last ‘A Good Many Years’ President Trump is Guiding ‘Hottest Economy’ in World Larry Kudlow, director of the White House’s National Economic Council, does not see an end to the robust economic growth sparked by President Donald Trump’s strategy. “I just do not see where this is going to end,” he […]
US Rates Rise, US Stocks Fall $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The stock market fell Friday as bond yields continued to climb following the release of the Employment Situation report for September. The S&P 500 and the DJIA lost 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively; the tech-heavy NAS Comp dropped 1.2%. At its session low, the S&P […]
Short-Term Recession Risks for US Are Not High $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The US economy does not face a large chance of a recession in the next 2 years and the Fed plans to keep gradually raising interest rates, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday. Asked whether the narrowing gap between short-term and long-term […]
US Home Mortgage Rates at Highest Mark in 7 Years+ Home borrowing costs will continue rising throughout the year in this strong economy Home mortgage rates in the US rose for a 5th week running, marking levels not seen in more than 7 years and are expected to continue to rise into Y 2019. The […]
The Trump Effect: Atlanta Fed Keeps GDP Forecast at 4.4% $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Wednesday, the S&P 500 finished with a gainer of 0.1%, driven by financial shares, which rallied on another rise in interest rates. The blue-chip DJIA outperformed, adding 0.6%, the NAS Comp lagged, closing lower by 0.1%, and the small-cap Russell […]
Fed Moving to Avert a Recession Due to Falling Unemployment Fed officials tout 10 yrs of falling unemployment as among their major victories in fighting the economic crisis of Y’s 2007 to 2009. Now they are starting to worry they have been too successful. When unemployment falls as low as it is currently, Boston Fed […]
US Investors are Ignoring Political Drama, the ‘Economy’s Everything $SPY National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said stock-market investors are apparently ignoring any White House political turbulence because the robust economy is proof President Donald Trump’s strategy is working. The Bull market on Wall Street set history this week when it eclipsed the S&P 500’s […]
US GDP Growing on Strong Domestic Demand The US economy set to charge ahead as fresh domestic demand carries it past some softening overseas, keeping the Fed on course for further interest-rate hikes later this year Households have more cash to spend than thought, thanks to pools of savings and President Donald Trump’s tax cuts. […]
President Trump, “not trilled” with Fed’s Raising Interest Rates $USD, $EUR Monday, US President Donald Trump said he is “not thrilled” with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for raising interest rates, plus he accused China and Europe of manipulating their respective currencies. President Trump rattled investors in July when he criticized the Fed’s monetary policy tightening, […]
Fed’s FOMC Votes 8-0 to Leave Fed Fund’s Rate Unchanged $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RTUX, $VXX The FOMC left the benchmark interest rate unchanged, and reiterating their plan to gradually lift borrowing costs to keep the economy expanding at a healthy pace. Economic activity has been “rising at a strong rate,” and the unemployment rate “has […]
Forex Traders Overwhelm Emerging Markets’ Central Bankers $DXY, $OIL, $GLD, $SLV Selloff forces EM central banks to raise interest rates Currencies have struggled to find a floor despite rate moves Central banks in emerging economies are losing the battle with markets as their efforts to shield their currencies struggle for traction, suggesting policy makers have […]
Interest from prospective home buyers in Northern states have propelled two Florida counties — Sarasota and Collier — to the top of the nation’s fastest-growing luxury housing markets, according to the May 2018 Luxury Home Index from realtor.com®, The Home of Home Search℠. In May, the top 5 percent most expensive home prices in Sarasota […]
US Labor Market Tightens, Jobless Claims Fall $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to a further tightening in labor market conditions. The robust US labor market and firming inflation have cemented expectations the Fed will raise interest rates next week at the FOMC meeting. […]
Some Summer Fun Activities can Invalidate Your Life Insurance Whether your children are out of school or you just want a break from work, the Summer is a popular time for vacations in sunny destinations, such as Hawaii and Florida. But if you are the type of person who regularly likes to spice up travel […]
US Unemployment Rolls Smallest in 45 Years $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Thursday, the US economic data showed an acceleration in mid-Atlantic factory activity this month, with manufacturers saying they were boosting employment and asking for higher prices for their products. The combination of a tightening labor market and firming inflation bolsters expectations the Fed will […]
Fed’s Williams Sees ‘Neutral’ Interest Rate Lower, Longer $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Stocks dip following a the strong start to the month Treasury’s benchmark 10-yr yield above 3.00% Tuesday, Mr. Williams, who will take the helm of the New York Fed on 18 June, said that inflation is nearing the central bank’s 2% target after […]
The Trump Expansion Continues to Deliver Jobs The US economy has delivered steady, modest gains for most Americans since the Great Recession ended in Y 2009. President Trump’s policies have extended what is now the 2nd-longest economic expansionon record and why more of the country might soon benefit from higher pay. The government said Friday […]
FOMC Stands Pat on Interest Rates, Focus Now on June Meeting $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The Fed policy makers held interest rates steady Wednesday and expressed confidence that a recent rise in inflation to near the central bank’s 2% target would be sustained, leaving it on track to raise borrowing costs in June. The Fed’s […]
Assets that Will Suffer on the Return to the Normal Interest Rate Regime $SPY, $GLD, $SLV, $BAC While Treasuries faded a bit after 10-year yields tapped at the 3% mark last week for the 1st time in 4 years, expectations are mounting that higher rates will soon be normal again, that rate historically is 5.0% […]
The US Stock Market Remains in Consolidation Mode $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX, $USO The Bull has paused to refresh Fundamentals are Strong Interest rates are low Some pundits are saying that the world markets entered Y 2018 speculating that the most synchronized global economic expansion in a decade was going to get to Hot, but […]
The US 10yr Yield is the Global Benchmark, Do Not Fear It $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Growth-sensitive groups like industrials, materials, and technology lead the broad retreat Tuesday At the close: the DJIA -424 pts, or 1.7%, at 24,024, the S&P 500 -36 pts, or 1.3%, at 2,6234, and the NAS Comp -121 pts, or […]
Investors Rotating Leadership form QE ‘Winners’ to QE ‘Losers’ $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Analysts are expecting investors will shift their holdings as the realization sinks in that the Fed is committed to raising interest rates until a major event compels the central bank to reverse course. That means investments that had strong gains during a […]
The Fed ‘May’ Need to Gradually Raise Interest Rates The Fed may need to keep raising interest rates to keep inflation under control, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a speech on the economic outlook that did not address the economic risks of rising trade tensions. Friday, in his 1st speech on the economic outlook since assuming […]
Healthy Economy, Strong Earnings Will Drive Stock Market North $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ Soon the stock market will reflect the economy, and all systems are on Go. March Private Sector Jobs, Non-Manufacturing Activity and Help Wanted OnLine ADP: 241,000; Goods: 65,000/ ISM (Non-Man.): -0.7 point; Orders: -5.3 points/ HWOL: up 102,100 The Institute for Supply Management’s […]
Gold Finished the Quarter with a Gainer, Bulls Happy $GLD Gold Bulls are finding Y 2018 a Happy Time so far.=. Gold is wrapping up a 3rd quarterly gainer, something not seen since Y 2011, and ETF (exchange-traded fund) holdings are near the highest in 5 years. Safe-haven demand may also get a boost with […]
DJIA Finished Off 724 Points, Markets Do Not Like Trade Wars $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The DJIA fell more than 700 pts on trade fears, tumbling back into correction territory as US stocks plunged the most in 6 weeks amid the threat of an escalating trade war with China that has the potential to disrupt global growth. At […]
Fed Hikes, Stocks Fall, Gold Rises $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $GLD Stocks swung sharply Wednesday afternoon following the release of the FOMC’s policy directive, which increased the fed funds target range by 25 bpts to 1.50%-1.75%. Overall the hike was priced in ahead of the Fed’s expected move. The S&P 500, the NAS Comp, and the […]
US Bull Market Turned 9 Friday, a Happy Day for the Bulls $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ Friday, the 2nd longest US Bull Market since WWII turned 9 anni. It began precisely at 1.00p EST on 9 March 2009 when all 3 of the major US stock market indexes bottoms and bounced in unison. A very rare […]
Inflation & Gold, the Link Between the Elements $GLD The Big Q: On fueled inflation will Gold’s price soar? The Big A: The recent US NFPs report showed that wages had jumped 2.9% in January on an annual basis. It was the best since Y 2009, which awakened investor fears of inflation. That’s why investors awaited Wednesday’s data on […]
CPI Came in ‘Hot’, US Stock Market Shrugged it Off and Spiked $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The stock market pundits fears about inflation are inflated. Econ 101: No Inflation, No Growth Top-weighted financials and technology sectors lead market higher Wednesday, US stocks finished sharply higher, shrugging off an initial sharp decline in futures pre-market immediately […]
US Economy Strong, Interest Rates Will Rise $VXX Thursday, New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said that as long as the US economy continues to grow above trend this year, he would be in favor of another interest rate rise at the US central bank’s upcoming meeting in March. “As long as I am […]
Americans Filing for Unemployment Benefits at 45 yr Lows The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, dropping to its lowest level in almost 45 years as the labor market tightened further, driving expectations of faster wage growth this year. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 9,000 to a seasonally […]
Fed: US Stock Market Outlook Unchanged in Growing Economy $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Fed officials played down recent volatility in global stock markets, sounding as resolved to push ahead with gradual increases in interest rates as before the pullback. “Having a bump like this has virtually no consequence in my view of the economic outlook,” […]
DJIA Pullback Linked to Bond Market Not DC Disclosures $DJIA Last week’s US stock market pullback related to movements in the bond market, and not to the release of a GOP House Intel memo that accuses FBI and DOJ investigators of anti-Trump bias, that has indicated President Trump in the Russia probe. President Trump’s position […]
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged The Fed decided to leave rates unchanged, as expected, and noted that near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but policymakers are keeping an eye on inflation, which has been slow to pick up despite a tightening of the labor market. Fed officials expect that, with further gradual adjustments […]
There is No Question in the Minds of Americans that the Economy is Strong There’s no question that the US economy is experiencing a big effect due to President Donald Trump’s policies, and that all the naysayers have been proven wrong, economic analyst Larry Kudlow said Sunday. Mr. Kudlow, who advised Trump on the tax […]
Big Banks See Trump Tax Reform Benefits, Will Pass Them on to Employees and Stakeholders $JPM, $WFC, $BAC, $C, $GS JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) indicated Friday that they expect to see significant future benefits from the recently enacted GOP tax bill, through both lower taxes and increased business. The comments came as the […]
Fed Doves Calling for ‘Slow’ Tightening The Fed should be patient as it raises interest rates this year, said Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic, adding his voice to other Dovish comments from officials concerned by low inflation and the risk of an inverted yield curve. “I am comfortable continuing with a slow […]
Seeing Inflation Almost Everywhere We Look, Growth Too! Investors with the idea that inflation will stay subdued should be concerned. Worldwide data have recently made clear that PPIs (producer-price indexes) have ticked up leading bond buyers to begin wagering that consumer inflation could be soon to follow, with US breakeven rates above 2% in here The […]
S&P 500, DJIA at Record Marks, as Bank Stocks Gain $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Tuesday, the S&P 500 and the DJIA marketrecord levels in early afternoon trading as Boeing (NYSE:BA)rose and bank stocks gained ahead of a near certain move by the Fed to raise interest rate. Losses in technology heavyweights, including Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), and […]
Economy Steams Ahead Under President Trump’s Deregulation Policy $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, in her final testimony to Congress as head of the central bank, described a steadily brightening picture for the US economy while downplaying the risks of financial instability. “The economic expansion is increasingly broad based across sectors as well […]
Gold Up for 3rd Day Running On US Inflation Data $GLD, $SLV, $MTAFF, $USD Gold prices rose for a 3rd day running Wednesday, and was flat Thursday, as USD weakened and US bond yields fell despite solid US economic data that reinforced expectations that the Fed will press ahead with increases to US interest rates, […]
US President Trump Poised to Change Fed Leadership + $GLD,$SLV, $PPLT, $USD Every US President gets the chance to influence Fed policy through nominations to the central bank’s Board of Governors. But, most often, that chance is limited to a small number of nominations, 3 max, including a nomination for Chairperson. But President Trump is […]
US Job Openings (JOLTS)Hit Record High, Qualified Workers Scarce $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The Trump Rally extends, US stocks mark record high, again, led by financials, Apple sags. US job openings aka JOLTS, rose to a record high in July, suggesting a slowdown in job growth in August was an aberration and that the labor market […]
US Stocks to Record Highs, Rate Hikes, NKorea, Irma Fears Fade $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The Trump Rally extends, as President Trump’s approval ratings soar. Monday, the S&P 500 rose 1%+ to a record high close, as Fed rate hike fear abated, Irma caused less damage than expected in Florida, and NKorea decided not to […]
It is Too Soon to Predict When Fed Will Raise Rates Again $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Given the “cross currents” in the economy and markets, it is too early to predict when Fed should raise interest rates, William Dudley, President of Federal Reserve Bank of New York said last Friday. “It’s too soon to judge […]
Yellen and Draghi Open Jackson Hole Symposium Friday $USD, $DXY, $EUR The Jackson Hole Symposium is this week’s most anticipated event, in part due to a severe lack of other newsworthy market stories but also because two very important central bankers are scheduled to appear. The Fed and the ECB are not only 2 of […]
FOMC Split in July Over US Inflation Concerns In the minutes, the FOMC gave off the impression that inflation may take longer to pick up than originally thought. FOMC members were worried last month about inflation, but for 2 opposing reasons. One group of Fed policymakers felt inflation was falling too low and argued for […]
Fed Does Not, Need Not Raise Interest Rates Anytime Soon The Federal Reserve can leave interest rates where they are for now because inflation is not likely to rise much even if the US job market continues to improve, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Monday. “The current level of the policy rate is […]
The Trump Rally Extends, DJIA Marks Its 8th Straight Record High $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) ended on its 8th straight record high Friday, with gains in banks after the NFPs data showed US employers hired more workers than expected in July. The strong jobs report may help clear the […]
Weakening USD is Positive for Gold & Silver $GLD, $USD, $SLV The US Dollar (.DXY) Index has been moving lower, retreating 9% in 5 months, from 102 in March to its current 93.39. Not surprisingly, Gold has risen almost 10% in USD terms during this frame. Earlier this year many participant expected USD to continue its […]
FOMC “Reducing Debt Holdings to Start ‘Relatively’ Soon” Fed officials said they would begin running off their $4.5-T balance sheet “relatively soon” and left their benchmark policy rate unchanged as they assess progress toward their inflation goal. The start of balance-sheet normalization is another policy Milestone in an economic recovery now in its 9th year. […]
Slightly better than expected wages and jobs data saved Britain’s pound from another downward lurch on Wednesday, offsetting a series of political and economic warning signs as talks on leaving the European Union get going. Amid the resulting falls in the pound, several of the Bank of England’s monetary policy panel members have stepped in […]
US Mint Sales of American Eagle Gold Coins Totaled 6,000 oz in June $GLD, $SLV, $CU US Mint American Eagle Gold coin sales in 1-H of Y 2017 were the lowest for this frame in 10 years, the sales of Silver in the frame were the weakest since Y 2008, government data showed Friday. US […]
Fed Sees Lower Interest Rated for Longer After last week, the FOMC raised the fed-funds rates by a quarter of a point and Fed Chair Janet Yellen, during the press conference that followed the rate decision pointed to the relentless debate, which concerns practically all central bankers of the leading economies in the world, whether […]
Atlanta Fed Raises Q-2 GDP Growth View to 3.2% The US economy is growing at a 3.2% annualized pace in Q-2 of Y 2017 based on data on May retail sales and consumer prices, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s most recent GDP Now forecast model showed. The latest Q-2 GDP (gross domestic product) estimate was stronger […]
The Search is On for a New Fed Chief $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX President Trump’s top economic advisor, Gary Cohn to lead the search for the next Fed chief. President Donald Trump’s relationship with the Fed has been friendly to date, that does not mean Chairwoman Janet Yellen is likely to stay on. Some market […]
European Central Bank Facing Continuing Challenges The European Central Bank (ECB) facing continuing challenges when its Governing Council meets Thursday in Estonia. The Eurozone’s central bank is likely to err on the side of prudence by avoiding any notable reduction in monetary stimulus, even though the arguments points to a different policy direction. The argument […]
Soft US Inflation May Warrant Interest Rate “Rethink” $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Tuesday, Fed Governor Lael Brainard said soft US inflation may cause her to reassess the path forward for monetary policy should it linger, even as the global economic outlook brightens and US growth looks poised to rebound. “If the soft inflation data persist, […]
FOMC Ties Rate Hikes to Economic Rebound The Fed (FOMC) policymakers agreed they should hold off on raising interest rates until they see evidence that a recent economic slowdown was transitory, mins from their 2-3 May policy meeting showed Wednesday. Nearly all policymakers at that meeting said they favored starting the wind-down of the Fed’s […]
FOMC Holds Interest Rates Steady as Expected $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The FOMC kept interest rates unchanged Wednesday and downplayed weak Q-1 economic growth while emphasizing the strength of the labor market, signalling it is on track for 2 more rate hikes this year. In a statement following the end of a 2-day policy meeting, […]
VIX (NYSEArca:VXX) Marks 10 yr Lows $VXX, $AUDUSD, $JPY, $EUR, $GBP After returning from the long May Day weekend, equity investors look undecided on whether to be Bullish or Bearish. Stocks across Asian markets were mixed Tuesday despite the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street’s ‘Fear Factor’ hitting its lowest marks in a decade. The low volatility was reflected […]
US Homebuilder Sentiment Slips, Overall Outlook Still Positive $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US homebuilders are a bit less optimistic about their sales prospects, as their overall outlook still remains favorable. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index released Monday slipped to 68 this month. That’s down 3 points from 71 in March, […]
Bullish Gold: A Case Study for Gold’s Price Run to $2,500 oz $GLD, $GDX, $SLW, $EXCFF Those who read this column know that I have been Bullish Gold for several months after noting the end of the Bear cycle in the precious Yellow metal and new forces that will contribute to an even stronger advance […]
Inflation in US Means Higher Interest Rates Speakers from the Fed are talking of up to 3 more Fed rate hikes this year. It is clear that Fed tightening is warranted by the steady rise in US inflation and the debate is more about the degree of tightening and the mechanism of tightening that is […]
Long Term US Mortgage Rated “Slipped” Last Week Long-term US mortgage rates last week fell from their highest marks of Y 2017. Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the rate on 30-year, fixed-rate home loans fell to 4.23 from 4.30% the week prior. The benchmark rate stood at 3.71% a year ago and averaged […]
Inflation Back, Deflation Demons ‘Dead’, Growth Ahead $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The “Demons of Deflation” are in the dust-bin on a uptick in price pressures globally, prompting investors to seek protection in inflation-protected bonds. A year ago, it was deflation, falling prices that restrain consumer spending and economic growth that plagued investors and central banks, […]
Bullish Investors Positive About President Trump’s Policies $SPY Stock-market investors worldwide, especially the Bullish ones who have been proven right since 9 November have been richly rewarded, look to be in a gradual transition in their operating outlook. Their environment is moving away from comfortable reliance on central banks that are able and willing to […]
Hawkish FOMC Member said, “March Rate Hike Possible” $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX A FOMC member Thursday added his hawkish tone to a growing group of Fed officials who are indicating that they could raise rates in March. FOMC member Jerome Powell said in a TV interview that he believed the Fed was close to achieving […]
US Home Mortgage Refinancing Activity Hits 2.5-Month High US application activity to refinance a mortgage climbed to its highest level since mid-December as 30-year home borrowing costs declined to their lowest in 6 weeks, Mortgage Bankers Association data released on Wednesday showed. The Washington-based industry group said its seasonally adjusted measure of loan applications for […]
Expect US Financial Market to Hold, DJIA 22,000 Next? $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The DJIA has risen about 14% since the November 8 Presidential election marking an intrday high of 20,851.33. That’s within 6% of 22,000, the next round number (resistance) that investors and traders are looking at. “I think 22,000 is what is justified […]
US Home Prices Up in December, Fastest Pace in a Year US home prices rose in December, this as prospective buyers bid against each other for a limited supply of property. The Standard & Poor’s CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City home price index, released Tuesday, increased 5.6%, the most since January 2016. The price gainer reflects the […]
A Growing Mania in the Stock Market, I Think Not. $DIA, $GLD, $USD, $GOOGL, $FB The DJIA continues rising like a “bat out of hell”. Of the past 72 NYSE trading sessions, the Dow Jones broke above to a new all-time high in 29 of them. That’s a new all-time high in 40.2% of the […]
Here is the Proof, Rising Interest Rates are Good for Gold $GLD, $USD, $XAUUSD You will recall that when the Fed raised interest rates in December, and the publicly spoke its plan to do so 3X more times in Y 2017, the conventional wisdom suggested gold should fall. The theory: Gold is a non-yielding asset, […]
US President Donald Trump’s Economic Plan to Spur GDP $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Economic experts now believe that the Trump White House estimates of economic growth of 3 to 3.5% are actually “too conservative” and the economy is poised to expand much faster than that. “With Reagan, we put up 4% growth rates coming out […]
Investors Still See Gold as Safe Haven & Inflation Hedge $GLD In a counter intuitive move, the precious Yellow metal is advancing as Fed threatens to tighten, ETF investors have turned buyers as Trump Rally extends. Savvy market analysts know very well that works for Gold in practice does not work in theory very often, in […]