Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, Americans Holding a Huge ‘Pile of Cash’

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, Americans Holding a Huge ‘Pile of Cash’

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX #Paul Ebeling #Wall Street #recovery #cash #technicals #patterns #Fed #Bulls Last Week’s Action The indexes are in consolidation mode, and the leaders are leading pulling back and testing their moves, the trend is up and the Bulls are still in charge. Financials received bids ahead of the release of the […]

The China Virus Will Not Shut Down the US Economy Again

The China Virus Will Not Shut Down the US Economy Again

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Thursday, Top White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said the US economy will not shut down again and cripple the strong economic recovery. Mr. Kudlow said there will be “spikes and hot spots,” that might force shutdowns “in individual places or certain stores.” But the American people will/can “have to […]

Expert Sees US Inflation Remaining Low for Years

Expert Sees US Inflation Remaining Low for Years

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Inflation in the US is likely to come back slowly, keeping the Fed from raising interest rates for an extended period. Over the next couple of years, prices are likely to increase to the 2.3% to 2.4% level, as the Fed has learned its lesson from past interest rate increases […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, Inflation Alert

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, Inflation Alert

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Last Week’s Action Stock indexes are consolidating, the economic data impresses, as headlines focus on new China Virus cases in the wake of massive new testing. Last Friday was Quad Witching expiration, and we saw leaders continue to lead. Perhaps other sectors will now start to contribute to the uptrend. […]

What the Fed Said in ‘Five Easy Pieces’

What the Fed Said in ‘Five Easy Pieces’

Last Wednesday Fed Chairman Powell spoke showing he has the power to move markets when it comes to monetary policy and how to help deal with the current C-19 coronavirus chaos’s instant recession. The FOMC was not expected make any change regarding Zero interest rates and nothing really new on the Fed’s ongoing asset purchases […]

President Trump Hammers Powell, “Fed is Often Wrong”

President Trump Hammers Powell, “Fed is Often Wrong”

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $BA $VXX President Trump says the US economy will be back and better than ever next year. Thursday, President Trump hammered the Fed after Fed Chairman Powell offered a grim outlook on the US economy, saying there is a “long road” ahead. “I see the numbers also, and do MUCH better […]

Fed Chairman Powell, “Near-Zero Rates Through 2022, GDP to Hit 5% Next Year”

Fed Chairman Powell, “Near-Zero Rates Through 2022, GDP to Hit 5% Next Year”

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Wednesday, the Trump Fed signaled it will provide years of extraordinary support for an economy clawing back from the C-19 coronavirus chaos. Th FOMC projects a 6.5% decline in GDP this yr and a 9.3% unemployment rate at yr’s end. In the 1st economic projections of the virus quarter, US central […]

Pent Up Consumer Demand will Help Drive the US Economy in 2-H of this Year

Pent Up Consumer Demand will Help Drive the US Economy in 2-H of this Year

US consumer borrowing dove in April as households concernes about the disruptions caused by the C-19 coronavirus chaos prudently cut back on their spending and use of credit. Cnonumer spending accounts for about 72% of the nation’s GDP The Federal Reserve reported Friday that total borrowing fell by $68.8-B, or 19.6%. That was the biggest 1-month decliner […]

No One Went Away in May, Rally to Continue

No One Went Away in May, Rally to Continue

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX It is the end of May and the S&P 500 cracked and broke through the Key overhead resistance at 3,000 and held, this after a month of sideways trading and consolidation. Now Summer is here an my prediction should make investors feel safer after this unpopular rally drove prices higher […]

Americans Like to Shop for Groceries in a Store, Not Online

Americans Like to Shop for Groceries in a Store, Not Online

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Online grocery sales have risen 200% YTD, according to Earnest Research, part of a broader boom in home cooking now that thousands of restaurants are closed. The $840-B grocery industry has been one of the few bright spots during this medical emergency that has hammered the economy. Walmart Inc.(NYSE:WMT), Amazon.com Inc.(NASDAQ:AMZN) and startup […]

US Stock Market is saying, “America is a victim of malpractice by medical advisors”

US Stock Market is saying, “America is a victim of malpractice by medical advisors”

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX President Trump will travel to Arizona next week, his 1st trip since 28 March as the coronavirus chaos ramped up in the United States. “I think I’m going to Arizona next week, and we look forward to that,” he told reporters Wednesday during a Q&A session with industry leaders on reopening the […]

Gold: Conditions Setting Up for the Price to 2X

Gold: Conditions Setting Up for the Price to 2X

$XAU $GLD $USD Volatile stock markets and the outbreak of the coronavirus helped drive holdings in gold-backed ETFs to record highs in Y 2020. The buying is a clear indication of the prominent role of gold ETFs in investors’ portfolios, especially during periods of uncertainty and panic. Gold-backed ETFs saw $4.9-B of inflows in February, […]

Sentiment is a Volatile Motivator

Sentiment is a Volatile Motivator

$VXX $USD $GBP $EUR $XAU $GLD Keeping tabs on the overall market correlation across assets on the risk or safe haven side was my focus at the weekend. Even though things eased last week with over $5-T in sidelined cash coming back in just 4 days, circumstances might see it snap back into the Bear’s […]

A Solid Post Virus Crisis Rebound Ahead

A Solid Post Virus Crisis Rebound Ahead

“We were strong before we went into the health crisis, we will be strong when we come out of it,” said Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan 2 Fed regional bank Presidents expressed confidence the US economy can rebound strongly after coronavirus restrictions on consumers and businesses are lifted. “This is a public health crisis” and […]

President Trump’s China Virus Stimulus Package Now at $2-T Plus in Phase 3

President Trump’s China Virus Stimulus Package Now at $2-T Plus in Phase 3

The coronavirus economic stimulus package being negotiated in a late session by the Senate Saturday will exceed $2-T, according to estimates by the White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow. “The package is coming in at about 10% of GDP,” Mr. Kudlow said. “It is very large.” That would mean more than $2-T, a reporter […]

Extraordinary Measures are Being Taken to Limit the Virus Spread

Extraordinary Measures are Being Taken to Limit the Virus Spread

$MSFT, $BRK.A, $BRK.B, Big Q: Do the globalists believe they can strip The People of their wealth? On 18-October-19, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, WEF & Gates Foundation sponsored a pandemic exercise in NY for the emergence of a new fictional viral illness; “coronavirus acute pulmonary syndrome” At the weekend Bill Gates resigned from […]

Key US Economic Indicators May Suffer ‘Virus Shock’

Key US Economic Indicators May Suffer ‘Virus Shock’

$DIS, $AMC, $MGM Official US indicators for employment, inflation and GDP may seem badly out-of-date as the rapidly spreading coronavirus outbreak wreaks havoc on the economy, as the Key data points are often a month behind. To give a more timely look, below are 5 Key indicators tracking how consumers are reacting to the crisis. […]

COVID-19: Briefing, 9 March 2020

COVID-19: Briefing, 9 March 2020

President Trump on Thursday signed an $8.3-B emergency funding package to fight COVID-19 A number of outcomes is possible, decision makers should not assume the worst. Fewer than 3 months have since China reported a new virus to the World Health Organization (WHO). The virus is known as SARS-CoV-2, causing COVID-19 disease, spread quickly in […]

Atlanta Fed Raises GDP Estimate to 3.1% + The World Markets and Commodities Wrap

Atlanta Fed Raises GDP Estimate to 3.1% + The World Markets and Commodities Wrap

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $XAU, $XAG, $CU, $OIL, $USO, $VXX FLASH: The S&P 500 staged a 70-pt rally during the final hr of trade, which led to a significant improvement in final sector standings, though all 11 sectors finished in the Red. The US economy is likely growing at a 3.1% annualized rate in Q-1, […]

Atlanta Fed Lifts Q-1 GDP Estimate to 2.7%

Atlanta Fed Lifts Q-1 GDP Estimate to 2.7%

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX DJIA +1293.96 at 26703.29, NAS Comp +384.80 at 8952.17, S&P 500 +136.01 at 3090.23 The major averages spiked Monday with the S&P 500 recording its 1st gainer since 19 February. The US economy is likely growing at a 2.7% annualized rate in Q-1, based on the latest economic data, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed Monday. […]

Communist Bernie Sanders and the “Dark Side of Momentum Investing”

Communist Bernie Sanders and the “Dark Side of Momentum Investing”

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX FLASH: President Trump: “Coronavirus Risk in America Remains ‘Very Low’” Bond King, Jeffrey Gundlach blames Presidential hopeful Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) for the market recent volatility. “If this stock market reversal is due exclusively to the virus, then why is United Healthcare down far more than SPX? Why is healthcare […]

“Deficit Not a Concern if Market Does Not React”

“Deficit Not a Concern if Market Does Not React”

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX “The growing national deficit is a ‘legitimate issue’, but our main focus now is in creating jobs,” White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said Friday.  “Until the bond market starts reacting negatively to that and we start seeing inflation, the deficit is not going to be a concern,” Mr, Navarro […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Last Friday’s Action Stocks recovered but struggled late in the day as the Fed, after a big repurchase operation in the am, said it will reduce the amount of the repos. The overnight repo saw $45.85-B in demand pasting the Fed’s offer. The 2-wk repo saw $59.02-B Vs the $30-B […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX DJIA futures are little changed Sunday night, along with S&P 500 futures and NAS Comp futures. The stock market rally showed surprising strength last week, but it is not unprecedented.  The stock market rally’s instant recovery from the coronavirus sell-off was surprising. Normally, when the stock market sells off fast, […]

The Social Contract in the 21st Century

The Social Contract in the 21st Century

McKinsey Global Institute February 2020 Report Subject: Economic outcomes and the relationship between individuals and institutions have shifted for workers, consumers, and savers in advanced economies. Life has changed substantially for individuals in advanced economies in the 1st 2 decades of the 21st Century as a result of trends including disruptions in technology, globalization, the economic […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX We are deep in earnings season. Stay tuned daily. What happened last week Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) struggled as caught a bid and rallied The DJIA and the S&P 400 tested the 50-Day MA, but the NAS Comp and S&P 500 did not, but rebounded.Q-4 GDP came in at 2.1% the slowest […]

President Trump’s Economic Wins Resonate With Americans

President Trump’s Economic Wins Resonate With Americans

The economic agenda of President Donald Trump is “resonating” with voters, Sen. Mike Braun, R-Ind., said. Senator Braun made his comments Thursday during an interview on television And Braun cited President Trump’s signing Wednesday of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement as another major economic step for the administration. “It’s a big deal,” he said. “It will […]

Fed Leaves Key Interest Rate Unchanged

Fed Leaves Key Interest Rate Unchanged

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX , $VXX The Fed held interest rates steady Wednesday at its first policy meeting of the year, the head of the central bank pointed to continued moderate economic growth and a “strong” job market, and giving no sign of any imminent changes in borrowing costs. “We believe the current stance of […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX, $GLD, $XAU, $USO Last Week Stock action has improved with low to high gains and the stocks that stumbled Wednesday have showed stronger action. There has been excellent action in response to good earnings both during the trading session and after-hours. Bonds rallied, gold has risen and Crude Oil has […]

States That Backed Donald Trump Growing Faster Than Hillary Clinton Supporters

States That Backed Donald Trump Growing Faster Than Hillary Clinton Supporters

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The States that backed Republican President Trump in Y 2016 have enjoyed faster growth last year than states that supported Democrat Hillary Clinton, a Yelp index shows. Five of the 7 fastest-growing states in the US during Y 2019 went Red in the last Presidential election, according to a trend tracked […]

President Trump Hammers Fed at Davos Forum

President Trump Hammers Fed at Davos Forum

$BA  United States’ GDP growth would have climbed closer to 4% if the effects of Federal Reserve rate hikes had not held on, President Trump said in a TV interview from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Wednesday. “That was a big blip that should not have taken place,” President Trump told CNBC’s Joe Kernen. […]

Housing Upswing will Bolster Economy

Housing Upswing will Bolster Economy

$LEN, $TOL, $KBH A revitalized US housing market will help keep the economy moving along despite a potential threat posed by a derailment in corporate spending. Home construction outlays, which account for almost 4% of GDP increased for a 5th month running in November, marking a welcome departure from a yearlong slowdown. Buyers, their confidence […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Y 2020 extended Y 2019 action as the big tech names led and the smaller-caps lagged. While the S&P 500’s valuation chart may be giving some investors flashbacks to the Y 2018 market meltdown, the Bulls are resolute. Corporate earnings are expected to fall for a 2nd Q running, as […]

See Stronger Economy, Higher Growth in This Election Year…Headed “Back to the 3% Growth Zone”

See Stronger Economy, Higher Growth in This Election Year…Headed “Back to the 3% Growth Zone”

$SPY White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow believes the US economy will continue to grow at a robust pace as the Y 2020 election season proceeds. “This continuing Bull market run indicates a lot of investor, consumer and business confidence, in my judgment,” Mr. Kudlow said. Early in Fridays session, the DJIA broke above 29,000 for […]

2020: USA, No Recession, Steady Economy, Low Inflation

2020: USA, No Recession, Steady Economy, Low Inflation

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX US stocks will continue to rise this year on very little chance of a recession, and low inflation driving steady economic growth, with real GDP growing around 2.0%, and inflation remains below 2.0%. That is our outlook for Y 2020. We do not see a recession in this year’s US […]

‘Trump Power’ Economy to Be Strong in 2020, Become Even More Powerful

‘Trump Power’ Economy to Be Strong in 2020, Become Even More Powerful

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX By almost every measure the US economy did well in Y 2019 though growth was slower than Y 2018. For next year, contrary to the consensus view from most economists, economic growth will accelerate. And growth could increase even more after Y 2020. President Trump has set the stage for […]

Trump Policies Working: US Economy in Longest Expansion Ever

Trump Policies Working: US Economy in Longest Expansion Ever

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX For the 1st time ever, the US economy started and ended an entire decade without a recession, the longest expansion in our history, researchers say. The National Bureau of Economic Research found, as of December, the economy has expanded for a record 126 consecutive months. “It is unusual that this […]

A Case for the Extension of This Bull Market

A Case for the Extension of This Bull Market

$SPY, $RUTX, $USD Last Christmas, the longest Bull market in our lifetime came within points of dying as the Fed raised interest rates. Some pundits say that every 3 years or so something pushes the Bull market to the brink of extinction, before a last-minute escape, that there is a record of support that underpins […]

US Consumer Spending on the Rise

US Consumer Spending on the Rise

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Americans increased their spending in October at the fastest rate in 3 months even though income growth was essentially flat, its weakest showing in 13 months. The Commerce Department said Wednesday that consumer spending rose 0.3% last month, the best gainer since a 0.5% rise in July. An inflation gauge that is […]

Rising US exports shrink trade deficit; China imports fall

Rising US exports shrink trade deficit; China imports fall

A bump in US exports helped shrink America’s yawning trade deficit in July while imports from China continued to fall amid the two nations’ trade war, government data showed Wednesday. The relatively steady deficit comes as hopes dim for a near-term resolution to the US-China conflict, which has begun to rattle the American economy. Economists […]

Wall Street Finished Mixed with a Bullish Bias Ahead of this Long Weekend

Wall Street Finished Mixed with a Bullish Bias Ahead of this Long Weekend

$DIA, #SPY,, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Wall Street posted mixed results on Friday on month end re-balancing ahead of a holiday weekend in which a fresh round of US tariffs on Chinese imports were set for levy. The DJIA .DJI rose 37.4 pts, or 0.14%, to 26,399.65, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 1.45 pts, or 0.05%, to 2,926.03 and the […]

DJIA +258 pts on No Market Moving News

DJIA +258 pts on No Market Moving News

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX US stocks finished on the highs Wednesday in a broad-based advance. The S&P 500 increased 0.7%, overcoming a negative start that was attributed to declining Treasury yields and finished near session highs.  The DJIA increased 1.0%, the NAS Comp increased 0.4%, and the Russell 2000 finished +1.2%.  Wednesday’s session did […]

Angela Merkel Extremely Quiet on the Highly Charged Iran Nuclear Issues

Angela Merkel Extremely Quiet on the Highly Charged Iran Nuclear Issues

When the US government formally asked NATO partner Germany to join in freedom-of-navigation patrols in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian gunboats have seized other nations’ ships, detonated mines, and flouted international law, it did so with an inducement. Tamara Sternberg-Greller, the spokesman for the US embassy in Berlin, remarked: “Members of the German government […]

IMF: USD Overvalued

IMF: USD Overvalued

$USD, $EUR, $JPY, $CNY International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Wednesday the USD is overvalued by 6% to 12%, based on near-term economic fundamentals, while the EUR, the JPY, and China’s RMB Yuan were seen as broadly in line with fundamentals. The IMF has been at odds with President Trump over his use of tariffs to […]

Sing., Malaysia, Vietnam Added to US Money Watch-list

Sing., Malaysia, Vietnam Added to US Money Watch-list

The US Treasury has just added Sing., Malaysia and Vietnam to a watch-list for currency (money) manipulation, putting their Fx (foreign-exchange) policies under scrutiny. Sing. (Singapore) made the list because of its large current account surplus and net foreign currency purchases of at least $17-B in Y 2018, equivalent to 4.6% of GDP, according to […]

Fed Must Cut Interest Rates Despite Strong 3.2% GDP Growth

Fed Must Cut Interest Rates Despite Strong 3.2% GDP Growth

FLASH: White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow says the Fed should still cut interest rates despite strong economic growth in Q-1. The government said GDP, expanded by 3.2% in Q-1 of this year, which the veteran financial guru and former Ronald Reagan adviser called “a blow out number.” “The inflation rate continues to slip lower […]

US Economy: “3.2% GDP Growth Absolutely Sustainable, Could Go Higher”

US Economy: “3.2% GDP Growth Absolutely Sustainable, Could Go Higher”

FLASH: White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said the “blockbuster” 3.2% economic growth in Q-1 is “absolutely” sustainable. The Trump Administration has already been forecasting 3.2% economic growth for Y 2019. “Maybe we would revise it up,” he said in a TV interview.. “The number was 3/10ths lower because of the government shutdown and … […]

President Trump Lauds GDP Growth, Inflation “Very Low”

President Trump Lauds GDP Growth, Inflation “Very Low”

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.2% (consensus 1.9%), according to the advance estimate for Q-1 GDP, a blockbuster number. President Trump is Supercharging the US Economy! President Donald Trump’s re-election hinges on supercharging the US economy, and data showing faster than expected growth provided him a […]

President Trump ‘Angling’ for The Gold Standard

President Trump ‘Angling’ for The Gold Standard

$XAU, $GLD, $USD President Trump’s plans to nominate Stephen Moore and Herman Cain to the Fed board, and that move points back to The Gold Standard, a policy option once advocated by both men and President Trump himself. The Big Q: What is the case for returning to The Gold Standard? The Big A: Is […]

Stocks Climb, Atlanta Fed Raises US GDP Forecast

Stocks Climb, Atlanta Fed Raises US GDP Forecast

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: S&P 500 Breaks Above 2800, and President Trump Grounds Boeing’s 737 Max 8 Aircraft S&P 500 broke above the 2800 mark, and all 11 sectors finished in the Green Weakening USD was an area of support for the broader market and the earnings prospects for multinational companies President Trump […]

Global Economy Hits Weakest Patch Since Financial Crisis

Global Economy Hits Weakest Patch Since Financial Crisis

The global economy’s softened throughout Y 2018 has left the pace of expansion the weakest since the global financial crisis a decade ago. A new GDP tracker puts world growth at 2.1% on a Q-Q annualized basis, down from about 4% in the middle of last year. While there is a chance that the economy […]

Key Tell: Watch Labor Participation Rate in US Jobs

Key Tell: Watch Labor Participation Rate in US Jobs

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Job creation and wage growth are still important things to watch for in the monthly NFP report for February that will be released Friday. The other partial indicators already suggest that the labor market will remain solid. The focus now will be on the labor-force participation rate because the […]

Global Economy May Have Bottomed Out

Global Economy May Have Bottomed Out

$GS, $USD, $USO, $OIL FLASH: On the global markets, some green shoots are emerging. The global economy may have already bottomed out, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Economist in a note Tuesday. While growth remains soft, Goldman’s current activity indicator in February is slightly above the downwardly-revised December and January numbers. Some green […]

Powell Sees Solid, but Slower US Economic Growth in 2019

Powell Sees Solid, but Slower US Economic Growth in 2019

The US economy will grow at a solid though slower pace in Y 2019 and the Fed will remain “patient” in deciding whether to further raise interest rates, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday. Chairman Powell reaffirmed the policy shift made by the Fed last month, telling a Senate Banking Committee hearing that “crosscurrents and […]

US GDP to Rise, Inventories Up Most in 5 Years

US GDP to Rise, Inventories Up Most in 5 Years

FLASH: US Growth Estimates Raised US wholesale inventories increased by the most in more than 5 years in December. The surge in wholesale stocks reported by the Commerce Department on Monday, however, implied inventories were less of a drag on economic growth in Q-4 than previously thought. As result, economists boosted their Q-4 GDP growth estimates by […]

President Trump’s Economy ‘a Shy of’ 3% Growth Goal

President Trump’s Economy ‘a Shy of’ 3% Growth Goal

Friday, the Fed said, that The Trump Administration will fall “a little under” its target of 3% annual GDP for Y 2018, the report offers an economic scorecard of sorts for the 1st full year of President Trump’s term. Growth for the year was “solid,” the Fed report said, as GDP “rose a little bit under 3% for the […]

NRF Forecasts Solid Retail Sales Growth for 2019

NRF Forecasts Solid Retail Sales Growth for 2019

The National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, forecasts that retail sales should grow between 3.8 and 4.4% to more than $3.8-T this year as shoppers remain in the mood to spend in a strong US economy and job market. The forecast, released Tuesday, is in line with the 4.6% gain the group preliminarily estimated […]

The Shutdown Had ‘Small Impact’ on US Economy

The Shutdown Had ‘Small Impact’ on US Economy

The US economy is strong and growing despite billions of dollars in losses during the recent partial government shutdown, said Grover Norquist, President of Americans for Tax Reform Tuesday while discussing a Congressional Budget Office report that $11-B was lost, with $3-B deemed a complete loss. “The Key thing is the economy continues today to grow and […]

China Musts: Align with US on Trade and Stimulate Sinking Economy

China Musts: Align with US on Trade and Stimulate Sinking Economy

China will step up fiscal spending this year to support its economy, focusing on further cuts in taxes and fees for small firms, finance ministry officials said Wednesday. Mounting US trade tariff pressure on the world’s 2nd-biggest economy pushed growth last year to its lowest since Y 1990 even as Beijing stepped up stimulus measures […]

Looking Ahead: Seeing No Rate Hikes, No Recession, 20%+ Rally Ahead

Looking Ahead: Seeing No Rate Hikes, No Recession, 20%+ Rally Ahead

$SPY, $GLD Surprise, after all of the ‘bunk’ you have heard since early October, do not be shocked that there will be no additional Fed rate hikes, a 20% S&P 500 rally and no recession.. Byron Wein defines “surprise” as an event that the average investor would only assign a 33% chance of taking place […]

US Consumers Opened Their Wallets in November

US Consumers Opened Their Wallets in November

US consumer spending gathered momentum in November as households bought furniture, electronics and a range of other goods, which could further allay fears of a significant slowdown in the economy. The upbeat data from the Commerce Department on Friday bolstered expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates at its 18-19 December policy meeting, despite moderating inflation […]

US Economic Growth Will Top 3% Next Year

US Economic Growth Will Top 3% Next Year

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett predicts that US economic growth will defy expectations again in Y 2019 because of a business investment boom and President Donald Trump’s trade strategy. “We’re definitely going to be at 3 or above 3 for next year as well,” Mr. Hassett said on TV Wednesday The Council of Economic Advisers […]

US Industrial Production Moving Higher

US Industrial Production Moving Higher

US Industrial Production Moving Higher $USO, $UGA, $USD US industry expanded in October, with manufacturing growth offsetting declines in mining and utility production. Industrial production ticked up 0.1%, the 5th straight monthly gainer, following a 0.2% advance in September and a 0.8% advance in August, the Fed reported Friday. The Fed said that recent hurricanes lowered […]

Halloween Market Week: Tricks or Treats?

Halloween Market Week: Tricks or Treats?

Halloween Market Week: Tricks or Treats? $SPY, $AAPL, $FB This is Halloween week and we have more earnings as 1,000+companies will report their Q-3 results and update their forward outlooks. We also have a full slate of economic data, some of which will influence the 2nd edition of the September Quarter’s GDP reading while others […]

China’s Q-3 GDP Growth Lowest Since the ‘Great Recession’

China’s Q-3 GDP Growth Lowest Since the ‘Great Recession’

China’s Q-3 GDP Growth Lowest Since the ‘Great Recession’ An official survey confirmed that manufacturers were coming under stress. At this week’s end, global investors and policy makers will likely be given a cold hard reminder of the costs of the US-China trade dispute, with a Reuters poll predicting that China’s Q-3 growth will slow […]

The Trump Effect: Americans Working, Higher Wages, Booming Manufacturing

The Trump Effect: Americans Working, Higher Wages, Booming Manufacturing

The Trump Effect: Americans Working, Higher Wages, Booming Manufacturing The Trump Effect has Made America Great Again, and Is Keeping America Great! The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to a near 49-year low last week, pointing to sustained labor market strength, which continues to underpin economic growth. The labor market, which is […]

Atlanta Fed’s Fresh GDP Growth Estimate at 4.1%

Atlanta Fed’s Fresh GDP Growth Estimate at 4.1%

Atlanta Fed’s Fresh GDP Growth Estimate at 4.1% The US economy is growing at a 4.1% annualized rate in Q-3 following the government’s construction-spending report and other recent economic data, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed Tuesday. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in Q-3 of Y 2018 is 4.1% on October […]

US Economic Growth: Consumer Spending Up, Inflation Moderate

US Economic Growth: Consumer Spending Up, Inflation Moderate

US Economic Growth: Consumer Spending Up, Inflation Moderate US consumer spending saw a steady increase in August, supporting expectations of solid economic growth in Q-3, while a measure of underlying inflation remained at the Fed’s 2 percent target for a 4th month running. Friday, economists said the report from the US Commerce Department should allay […]

The Trump Effect: US Economy is Strong

The Trump Effect: US Economy is Strong

The Trump Effect: US Economy is Strong $DIA The strong US economy continues under President Donald Trump. A string of reports Thursday showed the labor market is getting stronger, consumers are increasingly optimistic and manufacturers are expanding, adding to signs that GDP (gross domestic product) remains on track for a solid performance in Q-3 Filings […]

The Trump Effect: Atlanta Fed Keeps GDP Forecast at 4.4%

The Trump Effect: Atlanta Fed Keeps GDP Forecast at 4.4%

The Trump Effect: Atlanta Fed Keeps GDP Forecast at 4.4% $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Wednesday, the S&P 500 finished with a gainer of 0.1%, driven by financial shares, which rallied on another rise in interest rates. The blue-chip DJIA outperformed, adding 0.6%, the NAS Comp  lagged, closing lower by 0.1%, and the small-cap Russell […]

Hurricane Florence Will Distort Economic Data, Expect Little Harm

Hurricane Florence Will Distort Economic Data, Expect Little Harm

Hurricane Florence Will Distort Economic Data, Expect Little Harm $HD, $LOW The coming economic impact of Hurricane Florence is unlikely to be large but will likely muddle US data for months, judging from past experience. Last year, Hurricanes Harvey and Irma constrained activity in Q-3 of Y 2017 and sparked rebuilding later in the year […]

President Trump’s Tariffs Policy is Working

President Trump’s Tariffs Policy is Working

President Trump’s Tariffs Policy is Working $F, $GM President Donald Trump’s trade and tariff strategy, risky as it may seem is working. He is a master negotiator is hammering out agreements, 1st with the Europeans, next Mexico, both are better deals for American firms and workers. His threat of tariffs is leading to lower tariffs. […]

Atlanta Fed Lifts Q-3 GDP Prediction to 4.7%

Atlanta Fed Lifts Q-3 GDP Prediction to 4.7%

Atlanta Fed Lifts Q-3 GDP Prediction to 4.7% $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, 5 September. The US economy is growing at a 4.7% annualized rate in Q-3, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed on Tuesday, following the latest data on construction spending and factory activity. This is now […]

MAGA Effect:Household Income Spikes

MAGA Effect:Household Income Spikes

MAGA Effect:Household Income Spikes US median household income is at all-time highs US median household income has risen more than 4% since President Donald Trump took office on the overall strong economic growth and robust optimism. Inflation-adjusted median household incomes in July hit $62,450, according to the latest release from Sentier Research. “That’s the highest level […]

Atlanta Fed’s Q-3 GDP Estimate at 4.1%

Atlanta Fed’s Q-3 GDP Estimate at 4.1%

Atlanta Fed’s Q-3 GDP Estimate at 4.1% The US economy is expanding at a 4.1% annualized rate in Q-3, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s latest GDPNow forecast model showed, following the release of the advanced economic indicators from the US Census earlier this week. This was slower than the 4.6% GDP growth pace calculated by the […]

US Economy Grows Most in 4 Years

US Economy Grows Most in 4 Years

US Economy Grows Most in 4 Years US economic growth has come in stronger than initially estimated in Q-2, posting its best performance in nearly 4 years, as businesses boosted spending on software and imports declined. Gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 4.2% annualized rate, the US Commerce Department said Wednesday in its 2nd […]

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