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Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street and Beyond

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“Again, more hawkishness from the Fed, high inflation, etc…nevertheless my work says that naysayers risk missing out on a run to a record highs, Tune out the Noise” — Paul Ebeling

The US economy +

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 1.4% in Q-1 Y 2022, following an increase of 6.9% in Q-4 Y 2021. In Q-1, there was a resurgence of COVID-19 cases from the Omicron variant and decreases in government VirusCasedemic assistance payments.

The soaring Buck is propelling the global economy deeper into a synchronized slowdown by driving up borrowing costs and stoking financial-market volatility and there is little relief on the horizon.

Stocks

Stock investors’ anxiety about a potential recession isn’t showing up in other parts of the market, which is giving JPMorgan Chase & Co. confidence in his pro-risk stance.

For a moment this past week, the stock market felt like it was in a Bear market. Then, Thursday morning, the S&P 500 index, down 19.6% from its closing high, was ins from entering a Bear market an bounced.

A lack of panic in the US stock market as measured by Wall Street’s “fear gauge” is keeping some investors from calling a bottom on this 6 wk equity selloff.

Since Y 1990, the Cboe Volatility Index has hit an average mark of 37 at market bottoms, compared with its most recent level of around 32.

The mass exodus of money from risk-on to risk-off has $14-T on the sidelines, and the worst losing streak for global stocks since the Y 2008 financial crisis.

The Big Q: When is it safe to buy again?

The Big A: When the Key reversal is confirmed.

On the Crypto Front

Cardano Founder Charles Hoskinson Says Fears of Crypto Market Collapse Overblown, Sets Timeframe for Recovery:

“I’ve been in this space for almost a decade now, and I remember Bitcoin before it was a $1, and then going up to $30, then down to $4, then to $250, then to $80, then to $1,200, then down to $250 again, then up to $20,000, then down to $4,000, then to $64,000…

And no matter where I go and what I do, it always amazes me that there’s this constant rhyming of the attitude. So the old guard, nothing phases us anymore. We’ve seen everything twice, just to make sure we didn’t miss anything. 

The new people, the minute that something occurs, like for example the collapse of a stablecoin or the collapse of Bitconnect, or these types of things, then they say ‘oh my God, this is the end of crypto. Everything is over, we’re all going to die, the markets are over, the dream is gone.’”

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Have a prosperous week, Keep the Faith!

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Paul A. Ebeling, a polymath, excels, in diverse fields of knowledge Including Pattern Recognition Analysis in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange, and he is the author of "The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a highly regarded, weekly financial market commentary. He is a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to over a million cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognize Ebeling as an expert.