In a January 2020 article in The Atlantic, “researchers … say opioid addiction looks like the result of a perfect storm of poverty, trauma, availability and pain.” Commenting on some of the research cited in that article, David Powell, senior economist at Rand, told The Atlantic that to produce the most lethal drug epidemic America has […]
Barron’s annual roundtable of 10 veteran investors and economists agree that there’s almost no chance of a recession this year. The roundtable’s view of stocks is decidedly, albeit cautiously, optimistic, Barron’s reported. The 10 experts “all spoke of high valuations and noted a lack of catalysts to drive stocks higher. That led to some bemoaning that […]
$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX US stocks will continue to rise this year on very little chance of a recession, and low inflation driving steady economic growth, with real GDP growing around 2.0%, and inflation remains below 2.0%. That is our outlook for Y 2020. We do not see a recession in this year’s US […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The Trump policies are working to Make and Keep America Great! The Fed’s FOMC policy making committee saw much less risk of recession at its most recent meeting last month, when it kept interest rates steady after 3 straight cuts and signaled that it expected to keep low rates unchanged […]
$EYE, $CSGP, $LOW, $ALLY, $PYPL, $VRTX Going into Y 2020, the market is optimistic that economic growth can continue, especially with diminishing tariff pressures and a Fed on hold. Morningstar has identified some of the best performing fund managers, all of whom beat their benchmarks both in Y 2019 as well as on a longer-term […]
$USD After 4 rate hikes in Y 2018, the Fed cut interest rates 3X in Y 2019, making a remarkable and sharp U-turn in its monetary policy. The big shift reflected that Fed officials’ assessment of potential risks to the US economy has dramatically changed over the course of the year, due to slowing global […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Am seeing earnings revival boosting stock rally in Y 2020 But 1st, this is what happened last week: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has held steady and is not going to raise rates in Y 2020. Chairman Powell is also open to bond purchases. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) […]
$GLD, $XAU, $AGGFF The Dutch Central Bank recently argued in an article that if there were to be a major monetary reset, “gold stock can serve as a basis” to rebuild the global monetary system. Investor Ray Dalio recently cautioned attendees at the Institute for International Finance conference when he mentioned the possibility of a […]
The 2 biggest players in the US economy will take the stage this week, as President Trump and Fed Chairman Powell speak amid signs the nation’s trade war with China may be thawing. President Trump will deliver a speech at the Economic Club of New York Tuesday, with investors hoping he sheds light on a […]
$VLKAY, $BMWYY, $DDAIF The German economy is at the cusp of recession Now 30 yrs after the fall of the Berlin Wall, and 29 years after Germany was reunified into 1 country, Europe’s strongest economy is facing significant headwinds that risk spilling over into the rest of the EU and the world The closely watched […]
The worst may be over for the world economy’s slowdown. A wave of interest-rate cuts by central banks including the Fed and mounting expectations of a US-China trade deal are buoying confidence in financial markets just as Key economic indicators show signs of stabilization after recent declines. While a robust rebound may not be here […]
$GS The chances that the US economy skids into a recession are “not significant” near term as American households extend the expansion and trade tensions appear to be easing, the CEO of Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) said in an interview. “I’ve said that I still think the chance of a U.S. recession between now […]
The Christine Lagarde-era at the European Central Bank (ECB) is underway and the new President gets her 1st chance to frame her outlook for the economy and monetary policy publicly Monday. Ms. Lagarde, who took the mantle on 1 November from Mario Draghi, will speak in Berlin at a time when policy makers at the […]
The Pelosi/Schiff House led impeachment investigation Vs President Donald Trump is all about the collapsing the economy. “This economy is the best economy in 30 years,” Christopher Ruddy said in a TV interview Thursday, referencing the insights of Yale economist Robert Shiller. “He is not known for being a Republican,” Mr. Ruddy said. “An incredible […]
Britain’s Brexit-facing economy shrank in August, official data showed Thursday, but analysts say a better-than-expected July is expected to help it avoid recession. Gross domestic product — the combined value of all goods and services produced in the economy — slid 0.1 percent in August from July, the Office for National Statistics said in a […]
As tariffs loom on $7.5-B worth of tariffs on European goods, leaders in those countries “respect” President Trump and how his policies have worked to improve and grow the US economy, US Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell said Friday. “I’ll tell you one thing, they respect him,” Amb. Grenell said in a business interview, after […]
Incoming ECB President Christine Lagarde said the global economy is likely to dodge an outright contraction, though the trade tensions remain the Key threat to the growth outlook. “It is not in the baseline to have a recession,” Ms. Lagarde said in a TV interview Tuesday. “That said, it’s mediocre growth, it’s at risk because of essentially […]
$XAU, $GLD, $USD One of the most common reasons to buy gold is to use it as a stable store of value. This analysis uses 50 yrs of history to test that common belief, and finds it lacking for it misses the best parts of investing in gold. The graph above will be developed, and […]
More than 67% of North American CFOs (chief financial officers) surveyed by CNBC say President Trump will be re-elected in Y 2020. About a 25% believe former Vice President Joe Biden will win. This is the 1st time the CNBC Global CFO Council survey has asked executives about the upcoming elections. The survey also showed that a majority […]
Attention: Now what really matters is just what the President does and is going to do. President Trump blames the Fed for a slowing US economy, some blame it on him. A survey conducted with YouGov showed 28% of American adults believe the President in general is most responsible for the economy. That surpasses the […]
The tariffs on China have not had a significant effect on the United States’ economy, and will continue until or unless a solid trade deal is reached between the 2 countries, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Monday. “If we can get a good deal, a deal that is good for us, we will sign […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The stock market finished mixed Friday; the S&P 500 (+0.1%) and DJIA (+0.3%) closed just above unchanged, while the NAS Comp (-0.2%) and Russell 2000 (-0.4%) closed slightly lower. On Friday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the most likely outlook for the US and world economy is continued moderate growth, […]
US services sector activity accelerated in August and private employers boosted hiring, suggesting the economy continued to grow at a moderate pace despite trade tensions which have stoked financial market fears of a recession. The upbeat reports Thursday took some of the sting from data this week that showed the manufacturing sector contracted for the […]
$AUD, $WON, $JPY, $USO, $BAC OK, the US -China not being not having a date-certain schedule for the September trade talks yet, now is a good time for you too to start thinking about betting on a trade deal, as it has begun. “I am still reasonably optimistic,” David Woo, head of global rates and foreign […]
$SPY, $XAU, $BAC, $JPL, $USB All US financial markets are closed Monday, in observance of Labor Day. It may have taken $204-B of equity outflows this year, but the BofAML Bull & Bear Indicator is finally flagging a contrarian “buy signal,” its 1st since 3 January. Bank of America Merrill Lynch (NYSE:BAC) is Bullish on […]
Europe’s BREXIT drama is fast moving to a new climax, threatening to sow chaos for businesses just as a large part of the European continent is headed to recession. A disorderly exit is a worst-case scenario that both sides have been trying to avoid since the BREXIT vote 3 years ago, and many experts now […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Wall Street dipped Tuesday, weighed down by financial stocks as a deepening of the Treasury yield curve inversion raised recession worries again, and uncertainty over the progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China. A deepening of the inversion in the yield curve between the 2-year and 10-year […]
$GLD, $SLV, $USD, $XAU, $XAG Gold rose more than 1% Tuesday as fears of a possible recession gripped investors following disappointing US economic data, while silver marked $18 for the 1st time in nearly 2 years. Spot gold was up 1% at $1,540.57 oz at 1:41p EDT (1741 GMT), US gold futures for December settled […]
French President Emmanuel Macron is still calling for a new global economic order, decrying an “unprecedented crisis” in the market economy in an attempt to become the leader of the EU, a failed socialist experiment that is falling apart. Amid what he calls the uncertainty of US trade policies, Mr. Macron said the market economy […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Recession Special Report Bank of America’s (NYSE:BAC) CEO has just 1 reason why he does not see a recession looming. Mr. Moynihan says the “US consumer continues to spend and that will keep the US economy in good shape.” “But what is going to make that happen is the underling […]
$USD Thursday, President Trump said U economic growth could be record-setting if the Fed would lower interest rates further, as econ reports Thursday painted a mixed picture of the nation’s economy. “The Economy is doing really well. The Federal Reserve can easily make it Record Setting,” President Trump said on Tweeted. The government Thursday said initial claims […]
Traders and investors have been asking what is the “inverted yield curve”, this unusual bond market phenom came on briefly last week for the 1st time in over 12 years and shook Wall Street with talk that an economic downturn was imminent. Following a tweet from President Trump referencing the “CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!”, the […]
White House officials pushed back yesterday against concerns that economic growth may be faltering, saying they saw little risk of recession despite a volatile week on global bond markets, and insisting their trade war with China was doing no damage to the United States. ‘There is no recession in sight, White House economic adviser Larry […]
One month into Deutsche Bank AG’s boldest restructuring effort yet, the world has turned against chief executive officer Christian Sewing. Or at least, Germany has. Fears of an economic recession and the spectre of even lower interest rates have taken a toll on banks across Europe. But for Sewing, who just pinned his bank’s future […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH and Saying it Again: Stocks overreacted to the FOMC’s rate decision in the minds of investors, WH advisor calling for an emergency meeting of the committee to cut rates further. President Trump plays the tariff card to pressure Fed Chairman Powell, The market has become susceptible to every China headline, nothing new. […]
New machines popping up in Russian shopping centres seem innocuous enough — users insert their passport and receive a small loan in a matter of minutes. But the devices, which dispense credit in Saint Petersburg malls at a sky-high annual rate of 365 percent, are another sign of a credit boom that has authorities worried. […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX This week’s trade has been headlined by the yield-curve inversion theory, where the yield of shorter-dated debt rises above its longer-term counterpart. On Wednesday, the yield 10-yr T-Note rate briefly fell below the 2-year T-Note a condition that has sometimes been a recession indicator. The degree to which investors have crowded […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX, $XAU, $GLD The US stock market finished mixed Thursday, as investors weighed the resiliency of the US consumer Vs growth concerns. The S&P 500 (+0.3%) and DJIA(+0.4%) finished higher, while the NAS Comp (-0.1%) and Russell 2000 (-0.4%) finished lower. The overall uncertainty from the US-China trade dispute is high […]
US producer prices increased moderately in July, lifted by a rebound in the cost of energy products, while underlying producer inflation retreated, which could allow the Fed to cut interest rates again next month. The benign inflation report from the Labor Department on Friday could boost expectations for a half-percentage-point cut at the Fed’s 17-18 Sept. policy […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Wednesday, President Trump targeted Fed policy as the reason for this recent market turmoil. In raising interest rates 4X last year “the Federal Reserve acted far too quickly, and now is very, very late,” in reversing itself and cutting borrowing costs, President Trump tweeted. “Too bad, so much to gain on […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Stocks overreacted to the FOMC’s rate decision in the minds of investors, WH advisor calling for an emergency meeting of the committee to cut rates further. President Trump plays the tariff card to pressure Fed Chairman Powell, . The market has become susceptible to every China headline, nothing new. […]
$SPY, $SPX Hedge-fund billionaire Ray Dalio advised savvy investors to bet on “both horses in the race” amid rising trade tensions between the US and China. He argued that investors still have a historic opportunity to buy into China as it opens up its markets to foreign investments. “Would you have not wanted to invest with […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Last week the market was in consolidation mode and tested the 50-Day MA’s and bounced and… Employment report showed solid jobs growth in July Major averages found buying support at 50-Day MAs INDUSTRY WATCH Strong: Real Estate, Utilities, Consumer Staples Weak: Information Technology, Energy, Materials The CBOE Volatility Index has […]
FLASH: Fed policy makers reportedly are being forced to cut interest rates because of the European Central Bank’s much-lower policy rate. If losing demand to Europe weakens US growth and threatens to push inflation too low, US rates also must also fall. “The ECB’s policy rate, at minus 0.4%, is already nearly 3 percentage points […]
$GLD, $GDX, $XAU, $USD FLASH: Gold is in Vogue while this new fresh wave of monetary easing blows a bubble in risk assets, aka “always take what the market gives” Note: On 26 July, the European Central Bank (ECB) made an announcement that could have an impact of future gold prices. According to Reuters, European […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Positive finish to a positive week. Again, the longest Bull market in history has relied on low interest rates, and weakness in jobs. So, if everyone else is worried about stocks, capitalize on the fear and make a a lot of money as the market climes the wall of worry, fear […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $GLD, $XAU, $USD FLASH: Investors now have no doubt that the Fed will cut interest rates on 31 July for the 1st time in more than 10 years and it is the beginning for the path to near Zero, with no recession in sight. For weeks, money managers have bet on a […]
Investment thoughts FLASH: President Trump continues to hammer the Fed, and the market smells the cheap money coming. Pundits are calling for the Fed to stick to its mandate and ignore the usual election cycle games. A broadside about the ineffective trade policies and the damage that is doing to growth, employment and price stability […]
The Fed is widely expected to reduce interest rates late this month. That probably means its campaign to shrink its balance sheet is over, leaving the central bank with trillions of dollars more than before the Y 2008 financial crisis. Beginning a decade ago in a bid to fight the Great Recession, the Fed by […]
We have just learned that the Fed is debating the risks and benefits of letting the US economy run “a little hotter,” balancing the good it could do for workers against the possibility it could end in a recession, Atlanta Federal Reserve bank president Raphael Bostic said Tuesday. “We do think about this in terms […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: The US stock market began the week higher. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% after being up 1.0% at the start while the tech-heavy NAS Comp rose 1.1% after starting the session with a 1.7% gainer. The US and China agreed Saturday to resume trade talks and President Trump also […]
$DIA, $SPY, $SOX, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX President Trump will not renominate Jerome Powell for another term as Fed Chairman if re-elected. “That will lead to very different monetary policy, so the Fed is not fully independent of politics,” former Fed VC Fischer, an Hussein Obama appointee, said Sunday at a talk in Israel. By criticizing […]
$XAU, $GLD, $USD Mr. Market started seriously pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts. To be fair, the signal came from the Top of the economic politburo that matters that being the Federal Reserve. Speaking at an event at the Chicago Fed last Tuesday, Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that the Fed would likely cut […]
$EURUSD FLASH: Last week, Fed Chairman Powell said, “…we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.” With those few words Chairman Powell took the strength out of the argument for a recession because the Fed is very powerful. And with the stock market rallying, President Trump threatening more tariffs on China, stocks are just […]
This month, the US economy has been growing for 10 years running, tying the record for the longest expansion ever. Many people, including journalists and policy makers, see this as a great achievement. “I see nothing to celebrate. On the contrary, I think they are measuring success the wrong way”, says Narayana Kocherlakota He says, […]
FLASH: Americans’ confidence in the job market in May hit the highest level in Gallup’s records, which date back to Y 2001. A recent Gallup poll found the following: Overall views of the economy remain positive. Over 7 in 10 Americans feel positively about the US job market. Employment optimism among workforce is highest since 2000. […]
President Trump said it would be wise for China to “act now” to finish a trade deal with the US, predicting that “far worse” terms would be on offer for them after what he predicted would be his certain re-election in Y 2020. “I think that China felt they were beaten so badly in the […]
FLASH: White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow says the Fed should still cut interest rates despite strong economic growth in Q-1. The government said GDP, expanded by 3.2% in Q-1 of this year, which the veteran financial guru and former Ronald Reagan adviser called “a blow out number.” “The inflation rate continues to slip lower […]
Reports of the demise of the US economy have proved unfounded as Q-1 activity showed strength. The US economy expanded at a 3.2% annual pace in the first three months of 2019, the government said Friday. The gain was well above forecasts. Economists polled had forecast a 2.3% increase in GDP. The economy grew at a […]
The Fed is done raising interest rates until at least the end of next year, see at least one rate cut by then. The latest results come just days after Wall Street stocks touched record highs in a bounce back from a low at the end of last year, thanks in large part to expectations […]
Shayne Heffernan on the Recession 2020 There has been much speculation recently in the press about the impending global crash and the inevitable fallout it will cause. The author analyses some of the reasons being given from some of the most well known economists around the world and has some more bad news for us […]
$BAC An inverted Treasury yield curve is no longer a reliable signal of recession, and what matters more is the level of the curve, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) economists said in a note Friday. The Fed is flirting with inversion probably because policy makers recognize its waning predictive power in a low-yield global environment, the […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: S&P 500 extended is winning streak to 8 days running The odds of a recession hitting the US economy are “all at about Zero,” Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Kevin Hassett said Monday. “You saw it in the jobs numbers, but income growth is really taking off,” Mr. Hassett […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: The S&P 500 gaped open after better than expected China’s Manufacturing PMI (actual 50.5; expected 49.5; prior 49.2) and Non-Manufacturing PMI (actual 54.8; expected 54.5; prior 54.3) reinforced the idea that global economic activity is rebounding. The upbeat tone drove a rally in stocks with high-beta groups like the […]
The growing mystery of where China’s rapid slowdown is headed may become the biggest risk on the horizon. The world economy. Recession Watch: The global economy’s in its weakest shape since the financial crisis 10 years ago. China got more affirming evidence of its Big slowdown, with industrial output and retail sales softening and a […]
The global economy’s softened throughout Y 2018 has left the pace of expansion the weakest since the global financial crisis a decade ago. A new GDP tracker puts world growth at 2.1% on a Q-Q annualized basis, down from about 4% in the middle of last year. While there is a chance that the economy […]
FLASH: President Trump’s tariffs slows China growth engine China’s exports fell the most in 3 years in February, while imports fell for a 3rd month running, pointing to a further slowdown in the economy and a trade recession despite a PBoC”s support measures. The shockingly weak readings from the world’s largest trading nation added to […]
$JMP, $GS, $USD FLASH: Jamie and ‘Goldie’ have different outlooks JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon does not agree with economic doomsayers. The boss of the largest US bank acknowledged a growing number of potential obstacles to the economy that carried his firm to record profits last year. That caution was reflected in JPMorgan Chase & […]
FLASH: This a Special Report, looking ahead at this leg of the longest Bull run in market history The US Stock Market: The Bulls Vs The Bears Russell 2000 +16.4% YTD NAS Comp +12.6% YTD DJIA +11.0% YTD S&P 500 +10.7% YTD US stocks rallied late last week into options expiration, even as some analysts felt like they should […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Fed officials are getting their stories aligned on the US economy. Cleveland’s Loretta Mester says it’s in a “very good spot.” Or a “pretty good place,” as Kansas City’s Esther George has it, faithfully echoing Chairman Jerome Powell’s “the economy is good.” Their remarks, made Tuesday and Wednesday, aim […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Fed Chairman Jay Powell describes US economy as “good”, saying he does not see an elevated probability of a recession, stocks finish on their highs lead by the Financials Investors are prepare for the return of the divergence trade, with the US set to lead the rest of the […]
Tune out the Noise! There has been a slowdown in the United States’ economy when it comes to Europe and China, but overall, the economy remains “quite strong,” and there are no indications of a looming recession, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said Tuesday. “We still see tremendous investment in capital and human investments,” Mr. […]
$DIA, $SPY. $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX No recession in sight, No rate hikes ahead. Thursday, Federal Chairman Jerome Powell said the US central bank has the ability to be patient on policy given inflation is stable, allowing it to assesses whether the US economy will slow this year as some in financial markets worry.initial comments boosted […]
The US economy is doing great, there is no recession in sight Mohamed El-Erian argues that just because US economic growth appears to have eased that does not mean there is a recession ahead. “This concept that a slowdown in the U.S. means recession or means a financial crisis — that’s just wrong,” El-Erian, chief economic […]
$SPY, $GLD Surprise, after all of the ‘bunk’ you have heard since early October, do not be shocked that there will be no additional Fed rate hikes, a 20% S&P 500 rally and no recession.. Byron Wein defines “surprise” as an event that the average investor would only assign a 33% chance of taking place […]
2019 Will Bring Volatility, But No Recession, UBS Said in its year end report The year will bring increased volatility but no recession, UBS predicts in its “2019 Year Ahead” outlook report. Because of that, investors should stay invested and look for opportunities that the uncertain market will provide, the financial firm advised. On balance, […]
Wall Street strategists work to calm equity investors, saying their worries over the economy are overdone. $SPY, $JPM, $GS JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) argues that the risk of an economic recession is “overpriced” with the latest stock sell-off. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) says, the decline in US stocks has opened up a rare divergence between the market’s performance […]
US Household Wealth +$2-Trillion in Q-3 Driven by Stocks and Real Estate $SPY The stock market rally since 8 November 2016 drove US household net worth to a record high of $109-T in Q-3 The Fed said Thursday that the value of Americans’ stock and mutual fund holdings soared $1.2T. Home values rose $200-B. Other […]
The US is ‘Years away from a recession” Many economists, pundits, and talking heads are forecasting that the US is close to entering a recession. The recession could come inY 2020, but some argue it could start as early as next year. While there are a number of signs that point to that conclusion, a […]
Best Time Since President Trump’s Election to Buy Stocks $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ,$RUTX, $VXX Savvy investors, sidelined and sitting on cash are setting up to come back into this market The sell-off that started in October is a healthy correction in this Bull market and investors should continue to tune out the Noise. The beaten down […]
As Market Corrects, Huge Opportunities Come to Light $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX This Bull market correction is/will yield huge opportunities for savvy and patient participants. If you have to put money to work in the market now, we suggest you go into the defensive names in healthcare, consumer staples and utilities In tech 1 will […]
No US Recession in Sight, Talk is ‘Nonsense’ $SPY Rejecting economic speculation the correcting stock market is signaling an oncoming recession, White House chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow called the talk “nonsense” and added “recession is so far in the distance I cannot see it.” “I am reading some of the weirdest stuff about how […]
Growth in the US Economy Remains Strong The Fed is expected to raise interest rates again next month and 3X next year The probability of a US recession in the next 2 years, while low, moved up to a median 35% from 30% in the latest monthly Reuters survey of economists taken between 13-19 November. […]
Fed’s Current Monetary Policy Raise the Risks of Recession President Trump has criticized recent Fed rate increases, arguing that they threatened economic growth. The Fed’s current monetary policy path would raise the risks of recession in an economy where recent, unexpectedly strong growth may start to taper anyway, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said […]
Fed Hawks Want to Chill Roaring US Economy Despite sharp criticism from President Donald Trump for raising interest rates, Fed policymakers remain generally united on the need to raise borrowing costs further, according to minutes from their most recent policy meeting. Every policymaker backed the Fed’s September rate increase, according to the minutes of the Sept. […]
US Financial Market ‘Flushing’ Out Excesses Ahead of Santa Claus Rally $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Investor Fear Can Only Mean Stocks Will Surge Even Higher The CBOE Volatility Index spiked to 25.57, its highest mark since February. Byron Wien predicts that the stock market will rally after the midterm elections The next recession is 3 or […]
Risk of US Recession is Below Average for the Next 3 Years $GS Goldman Sachs predicts that the US economy stands only a “muted” chance of plunging into recession in the near future and a “below average” likelihood during the next 3 years. Goldman economist Daan Struyven modeled the current run, which is just 10 […]
Short-Term Recession Risks for US Are Not High $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The US economy does not face a large chance of a recession in the next 2 years and the Fed plans to keep gradually raising interest rates, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday. Asked whether the narrowing gap between short-term and long-term […]
Strong US Sales to Ease Profit Concern into 2019 $SPY A healthy outlook for US revenue growth will assuage stock investors concerned about the effect on corporate profits from tax cuts wearing off next year. S&P 500 (NYSEArca:SPY) revenue growth, which hit 9.5% in Q-2, its fastest pace since Y 2011, is estimated at 8.2% […]
The US Economy, ‘Nothing Succeeds Like Success’ White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Wednesday that “there’s no recession in sight” for the American economy and that President Donald Trump “is on the right track” with his economic agenda. “There’s no recession in sight,” Mr. Kudlow said. “The American economy is in very good shape,” […]
Fed Policymakers Say “Not to worry” No Recession Ahead As the gap between Short and Long-term borrowing costs hovers near its lowest in 10+years, speculation has risen over whether the yield curve is signaling that a recession is around the corner. Not to worry, 2 Federal Reserve policymakers said Friday Growth prospects look strong, which […]
Global Recession Concerns Fade Concerns for a world economic slump have faded among CEOs, who are now focused on hiring and retaining top employees, an annual survey found. Global CEOs polled by the Conference Board, a New York-based researcher, ranked a global recession as their 19th concern out of 28 choices, down from being the […]
US Would Be in Recession If Hillary Had Won Presidency $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Hedge fund manager Leon Cooperman contends that US would be mired in an economic recession today if Hillary Clinton had won the 2016 Presidential election. The nation is better off with President Donald Trump in the White House than it would […]
Saudi Aramco May Scrap IPO, Going with Private Investors $OIL Saudi Aramco is considering the sale of a stake to a Chinese investor as plans for its highly-anticipated international public offering are pushed beyond its Y 2018 target, sources familiar with the matter said Friday. The IPO (initial public offering) is expected to be the […]
Most Americans Worse Off Than Before Great Recession Newly released income and wealth data from the Federal Reserve Board’s triennial Survey of Consumer Finances show that America’s richest families enjoyed gains in income and net worth over the last decade. The Big Q: Not part of the Top 10%? The Big A: Then your income probably fell. […]
No Bear Market or Recession Seen Until at Least 2019 $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Savvy investors are being urges to ignore any pundits’ Doom-and-Gloom predictions, as the indicators say, “clear sailing for the next year or so”. “My belief is that we’re not going to see a bear market or a recession until at least […]
A Falling Stock Market, A Easing USD: That Brings Us Back to Gold $GLD, $SLV, $ABX, $GG, $EXCFF, $WPM As the USD falls from the Fed’s continuation of loose money policies, it will lift up Gold prices to unprecedented highs. Plus, recessions are a great environment for Gold During the last 2 recessions, Gold prices […]
Irresponsible Economists make Wildly Exaggerated Calls for Global Recession The US is decisively in a growth rate cycle upturn, which began last year just after the Presidential election. Very savvy BCA Research Chief Economist Martin Barnes and ECRI Co-founder Lakshman Achuthan provided an outlook of the US economy that surely contradicts the consensus sentiment of […]
President Trump Can Revive the Economy that Socialist Obama Killed $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Thursday, Sam Zell said President Donald Trump has an “extraordinary opportunity” to revive an economy that died under 8 years of regulatory oppression under Barack Hussein Obama. “I think we’ve had 8 years of kind of an anti-business administration with very […]
Australia’s Resource Rich Economy Avoids Recessio Australia’s resource-rich economy avoided recession by posting strong growth in Q-4, helped by surging commodity prices. GDP grew by 1.1% in Q-4 from the 3rd, and by 2.4% from a year earlier, Q-3 GDP was not revised from an initially reported fall of 0.5%. Economists had expected 0.8% growth […]
