President Trump said it would be wise for China to “act now” to finish a trade deal with the US, predicting that “far worse” terms would be on offer for them after what he predicted would be his certain re-election in Y 2020. “I think that China felt they were beaten so badly in the […]
FLASH: White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow says the Fed should still cut interest rates despite strong economic growth in Q-1. The government said GDP, expanded by 3.2% in Q-1 of this year, which the veteran financial guru and former Ronald Reagan adviser called “a blow out number.” “The inflation rate continues to slip lower […]
Reports of the demise of the US economy have proved unfounded as Q-1 activity showed strength. The US economy expanded at a 3.2% annual pace in the first three months of 2019, the government said Friday. The gain was well above forecasts. Economists polled had forecast a 2.3% increase in GDP. The economy grew at a […]
The Fed is done raising interest rates until at least the end of next year, see at least one rate cut by then. The latest results come just days after Wall Street stocks touched record highs in a bounce back from a low at the end of last year, thanks in large part to expectations […]
Shayne Heffernan on the Recession 2020 There has been much speculation recently in the press about the impending global crash and the inevitable fallout it will cause. The author analyses some of the reasons being given from some of the most well known economists around the world and has some more bad news for us […]
$BAC An inverted Treasury yield curve is no longer a reliable signal of recession, and what matters more is the level of the curve, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) economists said in a note Friday. The Fed is flirting with inversion probably because policy makers recognize its waning predictive power in a low-yield global environment, the […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: S&P 500 extended is winning streak to 8 days running The odds of a recession hitting the US economy are “all at about Zero,” Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Kevin Hassett said Monday. “You saw it in the jobs numbers, but income growth is really taking off,” Mr. Hassett […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: The S&P 500 gaped open after better than expected China’s Manufacturing PMI (actual 50.5; expected 49.5; prior 49.2) and Non-Manufacturing PMI (actual 54.8; expected 54.5; prior 54.3) reinforced the idea that global economic activity is rebounding. The upbeat tone drove a rally in stocks with high-beta groups like the […]
The growing mystery of where China’s rapid slowdown is headed may become the biggest risk on the horizon. The world economy. Recession Watch: The global economy’s in its weakest shape since the financial crisis 10 years ago. China got more affirming evidence of its Big slowdown, with industrial output and retail sales softening and a […]
The global economy’s softened throughout Y 2018 has left the pace of expansion the weakest since the global financial crisis a decade ago. A new GDP tracker puts world growth at 2.1% on a Q-Q annualized basis, down from about 4% in the middle of last year. While there is a chance that the economy […]
FLASH: President Trump’s tariffs slows China growth engine China’s exports fell the most in 3 years in February, while imports fell for a 3rd month running, pointing to a further slowdown in the economy and a trade recession despite a PBoC”s support measures. The shockingly weak readings from the world’s largest trading nation added to […]
$JMP, $GS, $USD FLASH: Jamie and ‘Goldie’ have different outlooks JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon does not agree with economic doomsayers. The boss of the largest US bank acknowledged a growing number of potential obstacles to the economy that carried his firm to record profits last year. That caution was reflected in JPMorgan Chase & […]
FLASH: This a Special Report, looking ahead at this leg of the longest Bull run in market history The US Stock Market: The Bulls Vs The Bears Russell 2000 +16.4% YTD NAS Comp +12.6% YTD DJIA +11.0% YTD S&P 500 +10.7% YTD US stocks rallied late last week into options expiration, even as some analysts felt like they should […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Fed officials are getting their stories aligned on the US economy. Cleveland’s Loretta Mester says it’s in a “very good spot.” Or a “pretty good place,” as Kansas City’s Esther George has it, faithfully echoing Chairman Jerome Powell’s “the economy is good.” Their remarks, made Tuesday and Wednesday, aim […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Fed Chairman Jay Powell describes US economy as “good”, saying he does not see an elevated probability of a recession, stocks finish on their highs lead by the Financials Investors are prepare for the return of the divergence trade, with the US set to lead the rest of the […]
Tune out the Noise! There has been a slowdown in the United States’ economy when it comes to Europe and China, but overall, the economy remains “quite strong,” and there are no indications of a looming recession, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said Tuesday. “We still see tremendous investment in capital and human investments,” Mr. […]
$DIA, $SPY. $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX No recession in sight, No rate hikes ahead. Thursday, Federal Chairman Jerome Powell said the US central bank has the ability to be patient on policy given inflation is stable, allowing it to assesses whether the US economy will slow this year as some in financial markets worry.initial comments boosted […]
The US economy is doing great, there is no recession in sight Mohamed El-Erian argues that just because US economic growth appears to have eased that does not mean there is a recession ahead. “This concept that a slowdown in the U.S. means recession or means a financial crisis — that’s just wrong,” El-Erian, chief economic […]
$SPY, $GLD Surprise, after all of the ‘bunk’ you have heard since early October, do not be shocked that there will be no additional Fed rate hikes, a 20% S&P 500 rally and no recession.. Byron Wein defines “surprise” as an event that the average investor would only assign a 33% chance of taking place […]
2019 Will Bring Volatility, But No Recession, UBS Said in its year end report The year will bring increased volatility but no recession, UBS predicts in its “2019 Year Ahead” outlook report. Because of that, investors should stay invested and look for opportunities that the uncertain market will provide, the financial firm advised. On balance, […]
Wall Street strategists work to calm equity investors, saying their worries over the economy are overdone. $SPY, $JPM, $GS JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) argues that the risk of an economic recession is “overpriced” with the latest stock sell-off. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) says, the decline in US stocks has opened up a rare divergence between the market’s performance […]
US Household Wealth +$2-Trillion in Q-3 Driven by Stocks and Real Estate $SPY The stock market rally since 8 November 2016 drove US household net worth to a record high of $109-T in Q-3 The Fed said Thursday that the value of Americans’ stock and mutual fund holdings soared $1.2T. Home values rose $200-B. Other […]
The US is ‘Years away from a recession” Many economists, pundits, and talking heads are forecasting that the US is close to entering a recession. The recession could come inY 2020, but some argue it could start as early as next year. While there are a number of signs that point to that conclusion, a […]
Best Time Since President Trump’s Election to Buy Stocks $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ,$RUTX, $VXX Savvy investors, sidelined and sitting on cash are setting up to come back into this market The sell-off that started in October is a healthy correction in this Bull market and investors should continue to tune out the Noise. The beaten down […]
As Market Corrects, Huge Opportunities Come to Light $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX This Bull market correction is/will yield huge opportunities for savvy and patient participants. If you have to put money to work in the market now, we suggest you go into the defensive names in healthcare, consumer staples and utilities In tech 1 will […]
No US Recession in Sight, Talk is ‘Nonsense’ $SPY Rejecting economic speculation the correcting stock market is signaling an oncoming recession, White House chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow called the talk “nonsense” and added “recession is so far in the distance I cannot see it.” “I am reading some of the weirdest stuff about how […]
Growth in the US Economy Remains Strong The Fed is expected to raise interest rates again next month and 3X next year The probability of a US recession in the next 2 years, while low, moved up to a median 35% from 30% in the latest monthly Reuters survey of economists taken between 13-19 November. […]
Fed’s Current Monetary Policy Raise the Risks of Recession President Trump has criticized recent Fed rate increases, arguing that they threatened economic growth. The Fed’s current monetary policy path would raise the risks of recession in an economy where recent, unexpectedly strong growth may start to taper anyway, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said […]
Fed Hawks Want to Chill Roaring US Economy Despite sharp criticism from President Donald Trump for raising interest rates, Fed policymakers remain generally united on the need to raise borrowing costs further, according to minutes from their most recent policy meeting. Every policymaker backed the Fed’s September rate increase, according to the minutes of the Sept. […]
US Financial Market ‘Flushing’ Out Excesses Ahead of Santa Claus Rally $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Investor Fear Can Only Mean Stocks Will Surge Even Higher The CBOE Volatility Index spiked to 25.57, its highest mark since February. Byron Wien predicts that the stock market will rally after the midterm elections The next recession is 3 or […]
Risk of US Recession is Below Average for the Next 3 Years $GS Goldman Sachs predicts that the US economy stands only a “muted” chance of plunging into recession in the near future and a “below average” likelihood during the next 3 years. Goldman economist Daan Struyven modeled the current run, which is just 10 […]
Short-Term Recession Risks for US Are Not High $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The US economy does not face a large chance of a recession in the next 2 years and the Fed plans to keep gradually raising interest rates, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday. Asked whether the narrowing gap between short-term and long-term […]
Strong US Sales to Ease Profit Concern into 2019 $SPY A healthy outlook for US revenue growth will assuage stock investors concerned about the effect on corporate profits from tax cuts wearing off next year. S&P 500 (NYSEArca:SPY) revenue growth, which hit 9.5% in Q-2, its fastest pace since Y 2011, is estimated at 8.2% […]
The US Economy, ‘Nothing Succeeds Like Success’ White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Wednesday that “there’s no recession in sight” for the American economy and that President Donald Trump “is on the right track” with his economic agenda. “There’s no recession in sight,” Mr. Kudlow said. “The American economy is in very good shape,” […]
Fed Policymakers Say “Not to worry” No Recession Ahead As the gap between Short and Long-term borrowing costs hovers near its lowest in 10+years, speculation has risen over whether the yield curve is signaling that a recession is around the corner. Not to worry, 2 Federal Reserve policymakers said Friday Growth prospects look strong, which […]
Global Recession Concerns Fade Concerns for a world economic slump have faded among CEOs, who are now focused on hiring and retaining top employees, an annual survey found. Global CEOs polled by the Conference Board, a New York-based researcher, ranked a global recession as their 19th concern out of 28 choices, down from being the […]
US Would Be in Recession If Hillary Had Won Presidency $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Hedge fund manager Leon Cooperman contends that US would be mired in an economic recession today if Hillary Clinton had won the 2016 Presidential election. The nation is better off with President Donald Trump in the White House than it would […]
Saudi Aramco May Scrap IPO, Going with Private Investors $OIL Saudi Aramco is considering the sale of a stake to a Chinese investor as plans for its highly-anticipated international public offering are pushed beyond its Y 2018 target, sources familiar with the matter said Friday. The IPO (initial public offering) is expected to be the […]
Most Americans Worse Off Than Before Great Recession Newly released income and wealth data from the Federal Reserve Board’s triennial Survey of Consumer Finances show that America’s richest families enjoyed gains in income and net worth over the last decade. The Big Q: Not part of the Top 10%? The Big A: Then your income probably fell. […]
No Bear Market or Recession Seen Until at Least 2019 $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Savvy investors are being urges to ignore any pundits’ Doom-and-Gloom predictions, as the indicators say, “clear sailing for the next year or so”. “My belief is that we’re not going to see a bear market or a recession until at least […]
A Falling Stock Market, A Easing USD: That Brings Us Back to Gold $GLD, $SLV, $ABX, $GG, $EXCFF, $WPM As the USD falls from the Fed’s continuation of loose money policies, it will lift up Gold prices to unprecedented highs. Plus, recessions are a great environment for Gold During the last 2 recessions, Gold prices […]
Irresponsible Economists make Wildly Exaggerated Calls for Global Recession The US is decisively in a growth rate cycle upturn, which began last year just after the Presidential election. Very savvy BCA Research Chief Economist Martin Barnes and ECRI Co-founder Lakshman Achuthan provided an outlook of the US economy that surely contradicts the consensus sentiment of […]
President Trump Can Revive the Economy that Socialist Obama Killed $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Thursday, Sam Zell said President Donald Trump has an “extraordinary opportunity” to revive an economy that died under 8 years of regulatory oppression under Barack Hussein Obama. “I think we’ve had 8 years of kind of an anti-business administration with very […]
Australia’s Resource Rich Economy Avoids Recessio Australia’s resource-rich economy avoided recession by posting strong growth in Q-4, helped by surging commodity prices. GDP grew by 1.1% in Q-4 from the 3rd, and by 2.4% from a year earlier, Q-3 GDP was not revised from an initially reported fall of 0.5%. Economists had expected 0.8% growth […]
Employee Owned Companies Pass the “Recession Test” Employee stock ownership of companies has been promoted in the US since the country’s founding. After the Revolutionary War, Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton fostered the resurgence of the Codfish industry by providing financial subsidies, but only for ships that had written profit-sharing agreements with their crews. This program, […]
Why Buy This Bull Market or Not Buy It $SPY Below are some of the reasons given as to why investors should “Buy” this Bull Market, as follows: 1. Investor Confidence Is Soaring There is little doubt that since the election both investor and consumer confidence has soared. In fact, confidence (soft data) has become […]
Obama’s Jobs Legacy: Near-Record 94.6-M Americans Not in Workforce A near record high of 94,609,000 Americans are not in the labor force, 425,000 more than last month’s 94,184,000, and the 2nd highest number on record. When US President Barack Hussein Obama took office in January 2009, 80,529,000 Americans were not in the labor force, and […]
FBI’s Announcement on Hillary Clinton Investigation Knocks Stocks off Highs $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The US economy grew at a 2.9% in Q-3, the strongest pace in 2 years, as businesses began restocking their shelves at a faster pace. The Q-3 US GDP (gross domestic product), the broadest measure of economic health, was 2X the […]
Business Spending Dives, Durable Goods Orders Fall, Recession Looms $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Orders for big-ticket manufactured goods dipped in September as a Key category that tracks business investment fell by the largest amount in 7 months. Orders for durable goods edged down 0.1% in September after gains of 0.3% in August and 3.6% in […]
Recession Looms, Bond Bulls Charge Ahead $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Bond investing has been hugely profitable with central banks like the Fed, ECB, BOE and BOJ driving debt values higher for as long as anyone can remember. And Bond Bulls can expect even more gains ahead as governments desperately try to stimulate economic growth with […]
The US Economy is Fragile and Anemic in the Extreme $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX If we were to believe US President Barack Hussein Obama and the Democrats nominee Hillary Clinton, the US economy is in great shape and safe from another financial crisis. And more liberal policies to better distribute the benefits would deliver Americans […]
The Anemic Recovery from Great Recession Surprise Economists $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Friday, the Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said that the slow recovery from the Great Recession has surprised economists, confounding long-held beliefs about growth and inflation. Speaking to an economic conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Ms. Yellen did not address […]
Recession Indicator Triggered on Unemployment Up Tick $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX September’s jobs report contained a sign that investors should be on alert for Recession in the US, and that means a stock market correction 1 of the Top 3 necessary Recession indicators is when the unemployment rate breaches its 12-Month MA. September NFPs (non-farm […]
Fed Official Cautions Colleagues on Raising Interest Rates $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley suggested the central bank should be cautious in raising interest rates, given limits on its ability to respond to a recession with borrowing costs close to Zero meaning out of tools. Noting concerns from […]
Whomever it is, the Next US President Faced Recession & a Bear Market $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX For investors, it does not matter who wins the the US Presidential race, a recession looms and Bear Market in stocks is therefore a certainty. Today we are in the 2nd longest Bull Market in history, as we […]
US ‘Flirting’ with Recession in 2017 $UBS A team of economic strategists have warned that the US is flirting on the brink of a Recession. UBS Global Macro estimates a nearly 31% chance of a Recession in Y 2017. The UBS’ credit model, designed to find the likelihood of a recession over the next few Quarters, […]
Alan Greenspan’s Credibility is an Accident that is still Happening $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX In a article last week, the former Fed Chairman is quoted to be worried about the “crazies.” For some unknown reason, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan’s, 90 anni, opinions are still taken seriously. No one person has done more to […]
The US Fed has Not Delivered on the Economy The US Fed is stuck to actions devised by Ben S. Bernanke that have not worked to restore strong economic growth since the Great Recession The US central bank’s adherence to the idea that unemployment and weak demand can be cured with policies that encourage consumers, businesses and governments […]
Fed’s ‘Beige-Book, “US Economy Has Slowed” $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The economy grew at a slowed pace this past Summer in 8 of the Federal Reserve’s 12 US districts, a slowdown from prior reports that will make US Fed policymakers cautious about an interest rate hike anytime soon. The Fed’s ‘Beige Book’ survey of business […]
Investors A Recession Away from Total Destruction $FB, $SQ, $MSFT, $ABX TheBig Q’s: Would you like to: Make a bit of money most of the time, with a small chance of losing a lot? Lose a bit of money most of the time, with a small chance of making a lot? The Big A: Most […]
The Truth & Consequences of Breaking the $35oz Gold Peg $GLD, $SLV, $DIA, $SPY Since July 8th, the DJIA (Dow Jones) has seen only one day where it closed more than 1.50% from its last all-time high (Aug 2nd: -1.51%). Since then the Dow Jones has also seen 9 new all-time highs, 7 of them […]
Obama’s Claims that US Economy is ‘Good’ is Debunked US President Barack Hussein Obama claimed recently, “The economy, by every metric, is better than when I came into office.” Mr. Obama has been making some variation of this “the economy got better under my watch” claim since the Y 2012 presidential campaign. The Big Q: […]
US Fed’s Ability to Respond to Recession is NIL $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US Fed officials fear that they lack the policy tools to combat future cyclical shocks to the US economy, an issue expected to be debated at the annual Jackson Hole Wyoming Summit later this week. The historically low Federal funds rate, Zero+, […]
Another Democratic ‘Tax & Spend’ Administration = Recession $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Hillary Clinton got hammered from all directions Monday. Mrs. Clinton is trying come up with a new and inspiring idea to jump-start a anemic US economy and help the financially stressed middle class. The progressive/left really does not know how to and will […]
Wall Street’s Primary Dealers Split on Fed Rate Hike $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Some top Wall Street bankers now expect the Fed to raise US interest rates later this year after a strong July NFPs report suggested a modest economic pick up in 2-H following an anemic 1-H of Y 2016 a Reuters poll Friday […]
Wall Street Analysts Have Lowered Earnings Estimates $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Wall Street analysts have a long history of being overly optimistic about earnings results the further those results are out in the future. And they tend to lower their estimates in the weeks before a earnings seasons, and often are too pessimistic about the […]
US Restaurant Downturn Signals Recession $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX During much of the recovery from the US financial crisis, restaurant spending has been a retail highlight as other areas, like department stores, have struggled. However, recent surveys point to the start of a serious decline. “Today, we adopt a bearish outlook for restaurants as we […]
The US “Earnings Recession” is Not Registering with Investors $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The US earnings recession should be dampening the 7-year-old Bull Market, but it is not registering with investors. Quarterly profits in the S&P 500 Index are about to fall yet again, extending a streak of declines poised to match the longest earnings […]
The REAL Jobs Report Suggest the US Economy ‘Treading Water’ $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX There is almost no way to explain Friday’s buying spree in response to another NFPs (official jobs report) that proved nothing about a growing economy, hang on an allegedly growing economy. When the S&P 500 hit 2130 on 21 May 2015, […]
US Jobs Growth Key to Avoid Recession $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX There are worrisome signs that the US will face Recession in Y 2017. The Key indicator to watch is the monthly NFPs (the jobs situation report). Friday the US Department of Labor is expected to report that the US companies added 170,000 jobs in […]
It is Not the UK’s ‘Leave’ Vote that Derailed the Fed’s Plans Weaker-than-expected real growth in US jobs in recent months had forced US monetary policy makers to put off a rate hike at their meeting June meeting. The data due early next month on June US NFP’s could help clear up doubts about the […]
Central Banks, “Spend money, or Buy stocks” $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Last week, Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Richard Fisher, offered this alert advice, to investors and consumers, “I would be prepared when they move — and I hope they move sometime in June — there’ll be a settling in of […]
Grim US Jobs Market Signals Looming Recession $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Recession signals are growing more especially in the US jobs market The NFPs (non-farm payrolls) report last week contained some very worrying data, even as the unemployment rate dropped to a 9 year low of 4.7%. Many thousands of Americans left the work force […]
US Already in “Soft” Business Recession $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) economists warn that the risk of a recession within the next 12 months hit a new high in light of May’s grim jobs report. “Our preferred macroeconomic indicator of the probability that a recession begins within 12 months has moved up from 30% […]
US Jobs Situation Report Damaging, Virtually No Jobs Created in May $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Donald Trump said the surprisingly weak US jobs situation data for May released on Friday was “terrible”, a “bombshell.” “Terrible jobs report just reported. Only 38,000 jobs added. Bombshell!” Trump said in a post on Twitter shortly after the US […]
Parents’ Basement, the Dwelling of Choice for Millennials In Y 2014, Americans 18 to 34 anni were a little bit likelier to be living in their parents’ home than with a spouse or partner in their own household, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of US Census Bureau data, released Tuesday. It is the 1st […]
Savvy Money Bets On Deep Stock Market Correction $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Carl Icahn is backing up his warning of “a day of reckoning” by shorting lots of stocks. Icahn warns that “a day of reckoning” was coming for American stock markets unless the federal government stimulates the economy with more spending aka QE. In […]
Looking at Equity Markets for Economic Signals is a “Mistake” $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Volatility in stocks and bonds was part of the FOMC’s consideration for slowing interest rate increases in February. Now a Fed economist attached to the central bank’s Dallas branch says that “relying on the equity market for economic signals is a […]