Fed Fueling a Recession, Chairman Powell On The Way Out

Fed Fueling a Recession, Chairman Powell On The Way Out

$DIA, $SPY, $SOX, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX President Trump will not renominate Jerome Powell for another term as Fed Chairman if re-elected. “That will lead to very different monetary policy, so the Fed is not fully independent of politics,” former Fed VC Fischer, an Hussein Obama appointee, said Sunday at a talk in Israel. By criticizing […]

Fed Saying, “Got Gold”

Fed Saying, “Got Gold”

$XAU, $GLD, $USD Mr. Market started seriously pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts. To be fair, the signal came from the Top of the economic politburo that matters that being the Federal Reserve. Speaking at an event at the Chicago Fed last Tuesday, Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that the Fed would likely cut […]

If you were paying close attention last week you Keyed on This…

If you were paying close attention last week you Keyed on This…

$EURUSD FLASH: Last week, Fed Chairman Powell said, “…we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.” With those few words Chairman Powell took the strength out of the argument for a recession because the Fed is very powerful. And with the stock market rallying, President Trump threatening more tariffs on China, stocks are just […]

The US Economy in Longest Expansion Ever.

The US Economy in Longest Expansion Ever.

This month, the US economy has been growing for 10 years running, tying the record for the longest expansion ever. Many people, including journalists and policy makers, see this as a great achievement. “I see nothing to celebrate. On the contrary, I think they are measuring success the wrong way”, says Narayana Kocherlakota He says, […]

Americans’ View of Job Market Hits New Highs

Americans’ View of Job Market Hits New Highs

FLASH: Americans’ confidence in the job market in May hit the highest level in Gallup’s records, which date back to Y 2001. A recent Gallup poll found the following: Overall views of the economy remain positive. Over 7 in 10 Americans feel positively about the US job market. Employment optimism among workforce is highest since 2000. […]

Fed Must Cut Interest Rates Despite Strong 3.2% GDP Growth

Fed Must Cut Interest Rates Despite Strong 3.2% GDP Growth

FLASH: White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow says the Fed should still cut interest rates despite strong economic growth in Q-1. The government said GDP, expanded by 3.2% in Q-1 of this year, which the veteran financial guru and former Ronald Reagan adviser called “a blow out number.” “The inflation rate continues to slip lower […]

Shayne Heffernan on the Recession 2020

Shayne Heffernan on the Recession 2020

Shayne Heffernan on the Recession 2020 There has been much speculation recently in the press about the impending global crash and the inevitable fallout it will cause. The author analyses some of the reasons being given from some of the most well known economists around the world and has some more bad news for us […]

The S&P 500 Roars into April, No Foolin!

The S&P 500 Roars into April, No Foolin!

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: The S&P 500 gaped open after better than expected China’s Manufacturing PMI (actual 50.5; expected 49.5; prior 49.2) and Non-Manufacturing PMI (actual 54.8; expected 54.5; prior 54.3) reinforced the idea that global economic activity is rebounding. The upbeat tone drove a rally in stocks with high-beta groups like the […]

How Far South is China’s Rapid Growth Slowdown Headed?

How Far South is China’s Rapid Growth Slowdown Headed?

The growing mystery of where China’s rapid slowdown is headed may become the biggest risk on the horizon. The world economy. Recession Watch: The global economy’s in its weakest shape since the financial crisis 10 years ago. China got more affirming evidence of its Big slowdown, with industrial output and retail sales softening and a […]

Global Economy Hits Weakest Patch Since Financial Crisis

Global Economy Hits Weakest Patch Since Financial Crisis

The global economy’s softened throughout Y 2018 has left the pace of expansion the weakest since the global financial crisis a decade ago. A new GDP tracker puts world growth at 2.1% on a Q-Q annualized basis, down from about 4% in the middle of last year. While there is a chance that the economy […]

Fear of Recession Looms in China

Fear of Recession Looms in China

FLASH: President Trump’s tariffs slows China growth engine China’s exports fell the most in 3 years in February, while imports fell for a 3rd month running, pointing to a further slowdown in the economy and a trade recession despite a PBoC”s support measures. The shockingly weak readings from the world’s largest trading nation added to […]

Dimon Cautious, JPMorgan Positions for a Recession

Dimon Cautious, JPMorgan Positions for a Recession

$JMP, $GS, $USD FLASH: Jamie and ‘Goldie’ have different outlooks JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon does not agree with economic doomsayers. The boss of the largest US bank acknowledged a growing number of potential obstacles to the economy that carried his firm to record profits last year. That caution was reflected in JPMorgan Chase & […]

The Bulls Are In Charge of the US Stock Market

The Bulls Are In Charge of the US Stock Market

FLASH: This a Special Report, looking ahead at this leg of the longest Bull run in market history The US Stock Market: The Bulls Vs The Bears Russell 2000 +16.4% YTD NAS Comp +12.6% YTD DJIA +11.0% YTD S&P 500 +10.7% YTD US stocks rallied late last week into options expiration, even as some analysts felt like they should […]

Fed says, “Economy in Good Place”

Fed says, “Economy in Good Place”

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Fed officials are getting their stories aligned on the US economy. Cleveland’s Loretta Mester says it’s in a “very good spot.” Or a “pretty good place,” as Kansas City’s Esther George has it, faithfully echoing Chairman Jerome Powell’s “the economy is good.” Their remarks, made Tuesday and Wednesday, aim […]

There is No Indication of a Recession Coming to the US, Economy is Strong, Growth is Steady

There is No Indication of a  Recession Coming to the US, Economy is Strong, Growth is  Steady

Tune out the Noise! There has been a slowdown in the United States’ economy when it comes to Europe and China, but overall, the economy remains “quite strong,” and there are no indications of a looming recession, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said Tuesday. “We still see tremendous investment in capital and human investments,” Mr. […]

Market Hears Powell’s Comments, Rally Extends

Market Hears Powell’s Comments, Rally Extends

$DIA, $SPY. $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX No recession in sight, No rate hikes ahead. Thursday, Federal Chairman Jerome Powell said the US central bank has the ability to be patient on policy given inflation is stable, allowing it to assesses whether the US economy will slow this year as some in financial markets worry.initial comments boosted […]

Slower Growth Does Not Signal a Recession

Slower Growth Does Not Signal a Recession

The US economy is doing great, there is no recession in sight Mohamed El-Erian argues that just because US economic growth appears to have eased that does not mean there is a recession ahead. “This concept that a slowdown in the U.S. means recession or means a financial crisis — that’s just wrong,” El-Erian, chief economic […]

Looking Ahead: Seeing No Rate Hikes, No Recession, 20%+ Rally Ahead

Looking Ahead: Seeing No Rate Hikes, No Recession, 20%+ Rally Ahead

$SPY, $GLD Surprise, after all of the ‘bunk’ you have heard since early October, do not be shocked that there will be no additional Fed rate hikes, a 20% S&P 500 rally and no recession.. Byron Wein defines “surprise” as an event that the average investor would only assign a 33% chance of taking place […]

No Recession in 2019, Volatility to Continue

No Recession in 2019, Volatility to Continue

2019 Will Bring Volatility, But No Recession, UBS Said in its year end report The year will bring increased volatility but no recession, UBS predicts in its “2019 Year Ahead” outlook report. Because of that, investors should stay invested and look for opportunities that the uncertain market will provide, the financial firm advised. On balance, […]

Markets Rebound, Growth Fears Overblown

Markets Rebound, Growth Fears Overblown

Wall Street strategists work to calm equity investors, saying their worries over the economy are overdone. $SPY, $JPM, $GS JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) argues that the risk of an economic recession is “overpriced” with the latest stock sell-off. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) says, the decline in US stocks has opened up a rare divergence between the market’s performance […]

US Household Wealth +$2-Trillion in Q-3  Driven by Stocks and Real Estate

US Household Wealth +$2-Trillion in Q-3  Driven by Stocks and Real Estate

US Household Wealth +$2-Trillion in Q-3 Driven by Stocks and Real Estate $SPY The  stock market rally since 8 November 2016 drove US household net worth to a record high of $109-T in Q-3 The Fed said Thursday that the value of Americans’ stock and mutual fund holdings soared $1.2T. Home values rose $200-B. Other […]

Best Time Since President Trump’s Election to Buy Stocks

Best Time Since President Trump’s Election to Buy Stocks

Best Time Since President Trump’s Election to Buy Stocks $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ,$RUTX, $VXX Savvy investors, sidelined and sitting on cash are setting up to come back into this market The sell-off that started in October is a healthy correction in this Bull market and investors should continue to tune out the Noise. The beaten down […]

As Market Corrects, Huge Opportunities Come to Light

As Market Corrects, Huge Opportunities Come to Light

As Market Corrects, Huge Opportunities Come to Light $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX This Bull market correction is/will yield huge opportunities for savvy and patient participants. If you have to put money to work in the market now, we suggest you go into the defensive names in healthcare, consumer staples and utilities In tech 1 will […]

No US Recession in Sight, Talk is ‘Nonsense’

No US Recession in Sight, Talk is ‘Nonsense’

No US Recession in Sight, Talk is ‘Nonsense’ $SPY Rejecting economic speculation the correcting stock market is signaling an oncoming recession, White House chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow called the talk “nonsense” and added “recession is so far in the distance I cannot see it.” “I am reading some of the weirdest stuff about how […]

Growth in the US Economy Remains Strong

Growth in the US Economy Remains Strong

Growth in the US Economy Remains Strong The Fed is expected to raise interest rates again next month and 3X next year The probability of a US recession in the next 2 years, while low, moved up to a median 35% from 30% in the latest monthly Reuters survey of economists taken between 13-19 November. […]

Fed’s Current Monetary Policy Raise the Risks of Recession

Fed’s Current Monetary Policy Raise the Risks of Recession

Fed’s Current Monetary Policy Raise the Risks of Recession President Trump has criticized recent Fed rate increases, arguing that they threatened economic growth. The Fed’s current monetary policy path would raise the risks of recession in an economy where recent, unexpectedly strong growth may start to taper anyway, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said […]

Fed Hawks Want to Chill Roaring US Economy

Fed Hawks Want to Chill Roaring US Economy

Fed Hawks Want to Chill Roaring US Economy Despite sharp criticism from President Donald Trump for raising interest rates, Fed policymakers remain generally united on the need to raise borrowing costs further, according to minutes from their most recent policy meeting. Every policymaker backed the Fed’s September rate increase, according to the minutes of the Sept. […]

US Financial Market ‘Flushing’ Out Excesses Ahead of Santa Claus Rally

US Financial Market ‘Flushing’ Out Excesses Ahead of Santa Claus Rally

US Financial Market ‘Flushing’ Out Excesses Ahead of Santa Claus Rally $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Investor Fear Can Only Mean Stocks Will Surge Even Higher The CBOE Volatility Index spiked to 25.57, its highest mark since February. Byron Wien predicts that the stock market will rally after the midterm elections The next recession is 3 or […]

Strong US Sales to Ease Profit Concern into 2019

Strong US Sales to Ease Profit Concern into 2019

Strong US Sales to Ease Profit Concern into 2019 $SPY A healthy outlook for US revenue growth will assuage stock investors concerned about the effect on corporate profits from tax cuts wearing off next year. S&P 500 (NYSEArca:SPY) revenue growth, which hit 9.5% in Q-2, its fastest pace since Y 2011, is estimated at 8.2% […]

The US Economy, ‘Nothing Succeeds Like Success’

The US Economy, ‘Nothing Succeeds Like Success’

The US Economy, ‘Nothing Succeeds Like Success’ White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Wednesday that “there’s no recession in sight” for the American economy and that President Donald Trump “is on the right track” with his economic agenda. “There’s no recession in sight,” Mr. Kudlow said. “The American economy is in very good shape,” […]

Global Recession Concerns Fade 

Global Recession Concerns Fade 

Global Recession Concerns Fade Concerns for a world economic slump have faded among CEOs, who are now focused on hiring and retaining top employees, an annual survey found. Global CEOs polled by the Conference Board, a New York-based researcher, ranked a global recession as their 19th concern out of 28 choices, down from being the […]

Saudi Aramco May Scrap IPO, Going with Private Investors

Saudi Aramco May Scrap IPO, Going with Private Investors

 Saudi Aramco May Scrap IPO, Going with Private Investors $OIL Saudi Aramco is considering the sale of a stake to a Chinese investor as plans for its highly-anticipated international public offering are pushed beyond its Y 2018 target, sources familiar with the matter said Friday. The IPO (initial public offering) is expected to be the […]

Most Americans Worse Off Than Before Great Recession

Most Americans Worse Off Than Before Great Recession

Most Americans Worse Off Than Before Great Recession Newly released income and wealth data from the Federal Reserve Board’s triennial Survey of Consumer Finances show that America’s richest families enjoyed gains in income and net worth over the last decade. The Big Q: Not part of the Top 10%? The Big A: Then your income probably fell. […]

A Falling Stock Market, A Easing USD That Brings Us Back to Gold

A Falling Stock Market, A Easing USD That Brings Us Back to Gold

A Falling Stock Market, A Easing USD: That Brings Us Back to Gold $GLD, $SLV, $ABX, $GG, $EXCFF, $WPM As the USD falls from the Fed’s continuation of loose money policies, it will lift up Gold prices to unprecedented highs. Plus, recessions are a great environment for Gold During the last 2 recessions, Gold prices […]

Irresponsible Economists make Wildly Exaggerated Calls for Global Recession

Irresponsible Economists make Wildly Exaggerated Calls for Global Recession

Irresponsible Economists make Wildly Exaggerated Calls for Global Recession The US is decisively in a growth rate cycle upturn, which began last year just after the Presidential  election. Very savvy BCA Research Chief Economist Martin Barnes and ECRI Co-founder Lakshman Achuthan provided an outlook of the US economy that surely contradicts the consensus sentiment of […]

President Trump Can Revive the Economy that Socialist Obama Killed

President Trump Can Revive the Economy that Socialist Obama Killed

President Trump Can Revive the Economy that Socialist Obama Killed $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Thursday, Sam Zell said President Donald Trump has an “extraordinary opportunity” to revive an economy that died under 8 years of regulatory oppression under Barack Hussein Obama. “I think we’ve had 8 years of kind of an anti-business administration with very […]

Australia’s Resource Rich Economy Avoids Recession

Australia’s Resource Rich Economy Avoids Recession

Australia’s Resource Rich Economy Avoids Recessio Australia’s resource-rich economy avoided recession by posting strong growth in Q-4, helped by surging commodity prices. GDP grew by 1.1% in Q-4 from the 3rd, and by 2.4% from a year earlier, Q-3 GDP was not revised from an initially reported fall of 0.5%. Economists had expected 0.8% growth […]

Employee Owned Companies Pass the “Recession Test”

Employee Owned Companies Pass the “Recession Test”

Employee Owned Companies Pass the “Recession Test” Employee stock ownership of companies has been promoted in the US since the country’s founding. After the Revolutionary War, Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton fostered the resurgence of the Codfish industry by providing financial subsidies, but only for ships that had written profit-sharing agreements with their crews. This program, […]

Why Buy This Bull Market or Not Buy It

Why Buy This Bull Market or Not Buy It

Why Buy This Bull Market or Not Buy It $SPY Below are some of the reasons given as to why investors should “Buy” this Bull Market, as follows: 1. Investor Confidence Is Soaring There is little doubt that since the election both investor and consumer confidence has soared. In fact, confidence (soft data) has become […]

Obama’s Jobs Legacy: Near-Record 94.6-M Americans Not in Workforce

Obama’s Jobs Legacy: Near-Record 94.6-M Americans Not in Workforce

Obama’s Jobs Legacy: Near-Record 94.6-M Americans Not in Workforce A near record high of 94,609,000 Americans are not in the labor force, 425,000 more than last month’s 94,184,000, and the 2nd highest number on record. When US President Barack Hussein Obama took office in January 2009, 80,529,000 Americans were not in the labor force, and […]

FBI’s Announcement on Hillary Clinton Investigation Knocks Stocks off Highs

FBI’s Announcement on Hillary Clinton Investigation Knocks Stocks off Highs

FBI’s Announcement on Hillary Clinton Investigation Knocks Stocks off Highs $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The US economy grew at a 2.9% in Q-3, the strongest pace in 2 years, as businesses began restocking their shelves at a faster pace. The Q-3 US GDP (gross domestic product), the broadest measure of economic health, was 2X the […]

Business Spending Dives, Durable Goods Orders Fall, Recession Looms

Business Spending Dives, Durable Goods Orders Fall, Recession Looms

Business Spending Dives, Durable Goods Orders Fall, Recession Looms $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Orders for big-ticket manufactured goods dipped in September as a Key category that tracks business investment fell by the largest amount in 7 months. Orders for durable goods edged down 0.1% in September after gains of 0.3% in August and 3.6% in […]

The Anemic Recovery from Great Recession Surprise Economists

The Anemic Recovery from Great Recession Surprise Economists

The Anemic Recovery from Great Recession Surprise Economists $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Friday, the Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said that the slow recovery from the Great Recession has surprised economists, confounding long-held beliefs about growth and inflation. Speaking to an economic conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston,  Ms. Yellen did not address […]

Recession Indicator Triggered on Unemployment Up Tick

Recession Indicator Triggered on Unemployment Up Tick

Recession Indicator Triggered on Unemployment Up Tick $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX September’s jobs report contained a sign that investors should be on alert for Recession in the US, and that means a stock market correction 1 of the Top 3 necessary Recession indicators is when the unemployment rate breaches its 12-Month MA. September NFPs (non-farm […]

Fed Official Cautions Colleagues on Raising Interest Rates

Fed Official Cautions Colleagues on Raising Interest Rates

Fed Official Cautions Colleagues on Raising Interest Rates $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley suggested the central bank should be cautious in raising interest rates, given limits on its ability to respond to a recession with borrowing costs close to Zero meaning out of tools. Noting concerns from […]

Alan Greenspan’s Credibility is an Accident that is still Happening

Alan Greenspan’s Credibility is an Accident that is still Happening

Alan Greenspan’s Credibility is an Accident that is still Happening $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX In a article last week, the former Fed Chairman is quoted to be worried about the “crazies.” For some unknown reason, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan’s, 90 anni, opinions are still taken seriously. No one person has done more to […]

The US Fed has Not Delivered on the Economy

The US Fed has Not Delivered on the Economy

The US Fed has Not Delivered on the Economy The US Fed is stuck to actions devised by Ben S. Bernanke that have not worked to restore strong economic growth since the Great Recession The US central bank’s adherence to the idea that unemployment and weak demand can be cured with policies that encourage consumers, businesses and governments […]

Fed ‘Beige-Book, “US Economy Has Slowed”

Fed ‘Beige-Book, “US Economy Has Slowed”

Fed’s ‘Beige-Book, “US Economy Has Slowed” $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The economy grew at a slowed pace this past Summer in 8 of the Federal Reserve’s 12 US  districts, a slowdown from prior reports that will make US Fed policymakers cautious about an interest rate hike anytime soon. The Fed’s ‘Beige Book’ survey of business […]

Another Democratic ‘Tax & Spend’ Administration = Recession

Another Democratic ‘Tax & Spend’ Administration = Recession

Another Democratic ‘Tax & Spend’ Administration = Recession $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Hillary Clinton got hammered from all directions Monday. Mrs. Clinton is trying come up with a new and inspiring idea to jump-start a anemic US economy and help the financially stressed middle class. The progressive/left really does not know  how to and will […]

US Restaurant Downturn Signals Recession

US Restaurant Downturn Signals Recession

US Restaurant Downturn Signals Recession $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX During much of the recovery from the US financial crisis, restaurant spending has been a retail highlight as other areas, like department stores, have struggled. However, recent surveys point to the start of a serious decline. “Today, we adopt a bearish outlook for restaurants as we […]

The US “Earnings Recession” is Not Registering with Investors

The US “Earnings Recession” is Not Registering with Investors

The US “Earnings Recession” is Not Registering with Investors $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The US earnings recession should be dampening the 7-year-old Bull Market, but it is not registering with investors. Quarterly profits in the S&P 500 Index are about to fall yet again, extending a streak of declines poised to match the longest earnings […]

US Jobs Situation Report Damaging, Virtually No Jobs Created in May

US Jobs Situation Report Damaging, Virtually No Jobs Created in May

US Jobs Situation Report Damaging, Virtually No Jobs Created in May $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Donald Trump said the surprisingly weak US jobs situation data for May released on Friday was “terrible”, a “bombshell.” “Terrible jobs report just reported. Only 38,000 jobs added. Bombshell!” Trump said in a post on Twitter shortly after the US […]

Looking at Equity Markets for Economic Signals is a “Mistake”

Looking at Equity Markets for Economic Signals is a “Mistake”

Looking at Equity Markets for Economic Signals is a “Mistake” $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Volatility in stocks and bonds was part of the FOMC’s consideration for slowing interest rate increases in February. Now a Fed economist attached to the central bank’s Dallas branch says that “relying on the equity market for economic signals is a […]