We Must Be Optimistic About the Long-Term Impact of the ‘Covid Economy’

We Must Be Optimistic About the Long-Term Impact of the ‘Covid Economy’

“In the short run, we have to save lives and hibernate the economy. In the longer term we will have slower, but important changes. The pandemic raises appreciation for sick leave. We will fly less and, unfortunately, we will use less public transportation, but we will also work more from home, commuting and driving less. […]

Gold is the ‘Go To’ Asset in Times of Crisis

Gold is the ‘Go To’ Asset in Times of Crisis

$XAU $GLD Gold Dealers Report Big Shortages of Bars and Coins Most in Demand, as People Want to Buy Gold. Gold is seeking a steady mark for its next move North, as President Trump’s warning of a “very painful” time for the United States from the coronavirus and a fresh selloff on Wall Street sent […]

The Coronavirus Will Change America

The Coronavirus Will Change America

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX America is at War President Trump is commanding and the nation’s governors, mayors and industry leaders are acting in concert to mobilization efforts for the major conflict. As with all major Wars, this will change how Americans think, engage with the world, and behave. Since WWII, Western leaders have embraced globalization, governed by rules for equitable competition, […]

Coronavirus Shutdown is Not a Recession but an Investment in Survival

Coronavirus Shutdown is Not a Recession but an Investment in Survival

As the coronavirus sequesters millions of Americans and shuts down the US economy, it should be thought of as an investment in public health that lays the groundwork for a rapid rebound. That is the view of St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, who argues that a potential $2.5-T hit coming to the economy […]

The 1st Test of Our Economic Strength is a Man Made Virus

The 1st Test of Our Economic Strength is a Man Made Virus

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX This health emergency was dismissed at 1st as a fleeting risk to the US economy has turned into a full test of whether 20 yrs of planning, regulation and research has left the financial system resilient to a major shock and the Fed able to mount a rescue. Preparations for an […]

“Do Not Expect US Recession From Coronavirus”

“Do Not Expect US Recession From Coronavirus”

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he does not expect the coronavirus tipping the US economy into recession, even though growth will slow. “Later in the year, obviously the economic activity will pick up as we confront this virus,” Secretary Mnuchin said Sunday on national television. Secretary Mnuchin spoke as many businesses in the US and […]

Key US Economic Indicators May Suffer ‘Virus Shock’

Key US Economic Indicators May Suffer ‘Virus Shock’

$DIS, $AMC, $MGM Official US indicators for employment, inflation and GDP may seem badly out-of-date as the rapidly spreading coronavirus outbreak wreaks havoc on the economy, as the Key data points are often a month behind. To give a more timely look, below are 5 Key indicators tracking how consumers are reacting to the crisis. […]

Global Markets and Commodities

Global Markets and Commodities

$GLD $XAU $OIL $USO $USD $MSCI Crude Oil and global equity markets bounced back after the Monday’s losses as the world’s biggest economies moved to cushion the impact of the coronavirus, but stock gains in Europe failed to hold as investors are still cautious. The price of Brent Crude Oil climbed 10% on hopes a […]

COVID-19: Briefing, 9 March 2020

COVID-19: Briefing, 9 March 2020

President Trump on Thursday signed an $8.3-B emergency funding package to fight COVID-19 A number of outcomes is possible, decision makers should not assume the worst. Fewer than 3 months have since China reported a new virus to the World Health Organization (WHO). The virus is known as SARS-CoV-2, causing COVID-19 disease, spread quickly in […]

Atlanta Fed Lifts Q-1 GDP Estimate to 2.7%

Atlanta Fed Lifts Q-1 GDP Estimate to 2.7%

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX DJIA +1293.96 at 26703.29, NAS Comp +384.80 at 8952.17, S&P 500 +136.01 at 3090.23 The major averages spiked Monday with the S&P 500 recording its 1st gainer since 19 February. The US economy is likely growing at a 2.7% annualized rate in Q-1, based on the latest economic data, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed Monday. […]

Market Looks Like it is Trading with a Recession in Mind, Though the Economy is Strong

Market Looks Like it is Trading with a Recession in Mind, Though the Economy is Strong

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX The US economy grew moderately in Q-4, the government confirmed, and may be facing a rocky road in early Y 2020 on the notion that coronavirus will hobble it, and bring on a recession. The economy grew by an unrevised 2.3% in Y 2019, the slowest annual growth in 3 […]

US Economy Roars Because President Trump Shredded Hussein Obama Stagnation Policies

US Economy Roars Because President Trump Shredded  Hussein Obama Stagnation Policies

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX FLASH: The notion that Mr. Hussein Obama is responsible for today’s good economy is Bunk!. The US robust economy is the best it has been in more than 10 years, it is due entirely to President Trump’s policies which include shedding the former president’s policies. Fact: Had Mr. Hussein Obama […]

The Yield Curve and Gold’s Price

The Yield Curve and Gold’s Price

$XAU $GLD When the spread between 10-yr and 3-mo Treasuries bottomed out, the price of gold rose above 1,580. And the current fears about coronavirus may support it in the short-term. However, fears about prior virus outbreaks were overblown as is this 1, and the current anxiety looks to be temporary. The yield curve has […]

2020 Black Swan, China Virus Impact May Help US Job Market

2020 Black Swan, China Virus Impact May Help US Job Market

Thursday, US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said he does not want to take a “victory lap” concerning the deadly coronavirus outbreak, but he speculated that the disease will help “accelerate” the return of jobs to the United States. “The fact is, it does give businesses yet another thing to consider when they go through their […]

2020 Davos:”Cash Is Trash,” Investors Should Put Money in Stocks

2020 Davos:”Cash Is Trash,” Investors Should Put Money in Stocks

$SPY, $SPX Investment Wizard Ray Dalio urges all investors to dump cash for a diversified portfolio, explaining that they should not miss out on the strength of this long running Bull market. “Cash is trash,” Mr. Dalio said on TV. “Get out of cash. There’s still a lot of money in cash (on the sidelines),” he said. […]

Opioid Crisis: a Perfect Storm of Poverty, Trauma, Availability and Pain

Opioid Crisis: a Perfect Storm of Poverty, Trauma, Availability and Pain

In a January 2020 article in The Atlantic, “researchers … say opioid addiction looks like the result of a perfect storm of poverty, trauma, availability and pain.” Commenting on some of the research cited in that article, David Powell, senior economist at Rand, told The Atlantic that to produce the most lethal drug epidemic America has […]

2020: No Chance of Recession

2020: No Chance of Recession

Barron’s annual roundtable of 10 veteran investors and economists agree that there’s almost no chance of a recession this year. The roundtable’s view of stocks is decidedly, albeit cautiously, optimistic, Barron’s reported. The 10 experts “all spoke of high valuations and noted a lack of catalysts to drive stocks higher. That led to some bemoaning that […]

2020: USA, No Recession, Steady Economy, Low Inflation

2020: USA, No Recession, Steady Economy, Low Inflation

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX US stocks will continue to rise this year on very little chance of a recession, and low inflation driving steady economic growth, with real GDP growing around 2.0%, and inflation remains below 2.0%. That is our outlook for Y 2020. We do not see a recession in this year’s US […]

2020: Fed Last Month Saw a Declining Risk of Recession

2020: Fed Last Month Saw a Declining Risk of Recession

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The Trump policies are working to Make and Keep America Great! The Fed’s FOMC policy making committee saw much less risk of recession at its most recent meeting last month, when it kept interest rates steady after 3 straight cuts and signaled that it expected to keep low rates unchanged […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Am seeing earnings revival boosting stock rally in Y 2020 But 1st, this is what happened last week: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has held steady and is not going to raise rates in Y 2020. Chairman Powell is also open to bond purchases. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) […]

The Gold Rush Flying Under Wall Street’s Radar

The Gold Rush Flying Under Wall Street’s Radar

$GLD, $XAU, $AGGFF The Dutch Central Bank recently argued in an article that if there were to be a major monetary reset, “gold stock can serve as a basis” to rebuild the global monetary system. Investor Ray Dalio recently cautioned attendees at the Institute for International Finance conference when he mentioned the possibility of a […]

Trade is the Key Issue…

Trade is the Key Issue…

The 2 biggest players in the US economy will take the stage this week, as President Trump and Fed Chairman Powell speak amid signs the nation’s trade war with China may be thawing. President Trump will deliver a speech at the Economic Club of New York Tuesday, with investors hoping he sheds light on a […]

Commentary: Merkel Needs President Trump to End the Trade Dispute

Commentary: Merkel Needs President Trump to End the Trade Dispute

$VLKAY, $BMWYY, $DDAIF The German economy is at the cusp of recession Now 30 yrs after the fall of the Berlin Wall, and 29 years after Germany was reunified into 1 country, Europe’s strongest economy is facing significant headwinds that risk spilling over into the rest of the EU and the world The closely watched […]

Signs of Global Economic Stabilization Flashing

Signs of Global Economic Stabilization Flashing

The worst may be over for the world economy’s slowdown. A wave of interest-rate cuts by central banks including the Fed and mounting expectations of a US-China trade deal are buoying confidence in financial markets just as Key economic indicators show signs of stabilization after recent declines. While a robust rebound may not be here […]

No US Recession Ahead

No US Recession Ahead

$GS The chances that the US economy skids into a recession are “not significant” near term as American households extend the expansion and trade tensions appear to be easing, the CEO of Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) said in an interview. “I’ve said that I still think the chance of a U.S. recession between now […]

The Lagarde Era at the ECB Begins

The Lagarde Era at the ECB Begins

The Christine Lagarde-era at the European Central Bank (ECB) is underway and the new President gets her 1st chance to frame her outlook for the economy and monetary policy publicly Monday. Ms. Lagarde, who took the mantle on 1 November from Mario Draghi, will speak in Berlin at a time when policy makers at the […]

Impeachment is All About Stopping ‘The Trump Economy’

Impeachment is All About Stopping ‘The Trump Economy’

The Pelosi/Schiff House led impeachment investigation Vs President Donald Trump is all about the collapsing the economy. “This economy is the best economy in 30 years,” Christopher Ruddy said in a TV interview Thursday, referencing the insights of Yale economist Robert Shiller. “He is not known for being a Republican,” Mr. Ruddy said. “An incredible […]

Brexit-facing UK economy shrinks but set to avoid recession

Brexit-facing UK economy shrinks but set to avoid recession

Britain’s Brexit-facing economy shrank in August, official data showed Thursday, but analysts say a better-than-expected July is expected to help it avoid recession. Gross domestic product — the combined value of all goods and services produced in the economy — slid 0.1 percent in August from July, the Office for National Statistics said in a […]

Trade Key Global Growth Risk, Recession Unlikely

Trade Key Global Growth Risk, Recession Unlikely

Incoming ECB President Christine Lagarde said the global economy is likely to dodge an outright contraction, though the trade tensions remain the Key threat to the growth outlook. “It is not in the baseline to have a recession,” Ms. Lagarde said in a TV interview Tuesday. “That said, it’s mediocre growth, it’s at risk because of essentially […]

Majority of Business Leaders Say President Trump Will Win in 2020

Majority of Business Leaders Say President Trump Will Win in 2020

More than 67% of North American CFOs (chief financial officers) surveyed by CNBC say President Trump will be re-elected in Y 2020. About a 25% believe former Vice President Joe Biden will win. This is the 1st time the CNBC Global CFO Council survey has asked executives about the upcoming elections. The survey also showed that a majority […]

American Voters See President Trump Has Taken Charge of the Economy, Having Effectively Sidelined the Fed

American Voters See President Trump Has Taken Charge of the Economy, Having Effectively Sidelined the Fed

Attention: Now what really matters is just what the President does and is going to do. President Trump blames the Fed for a slowing US economy, some blame it on him. A survey conducted with YouGov showed 28% of American adults believe the President in general is most responsible for the economy. That surpasses the […]

Fed Chairman Powell Does Not See Recession: Mission “Sustain Expansion”

Fed Chairman Powell Does Not See Recession: Mission “Sustain Expansion”

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The stock market finished mixed Friday; the S&P 500 (+0.1%) and DJIA (+0.3%) closed just above unchanged, while the NAS Comp (-0.2%) and Russell 2000 (-0.4%) closed slightly lower. On Friday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the most likely outlook for the US and world economy is continued moderate growth, […]

US Services Sector Says Economy Weathering Trade Dispute

US Services Sector Says Economy Weathering Trade Dispute

US services sector activity accelerated in August and private employers boosted hiring, suggesting the economy continued to grow at a moderate pace despite trade tensions which have stoked financial market fears of a recession. The upbeat reports Thursday took some of the sting from data this week that showed the manufacturing sector contracted for the […]

Betting Started: President Trump Will Forge China Trade Deal

Betting Started: President Trump Will Forge China Trade Deal

$AUD, $WON, $JPY, $USO, $BAC OK, the US -China not being not having a date-certain schedule for the September trade talks yet, now is a good time for you too to start thinking about betting on a trade deal, as it has begun. “I am still reasonably optimistic,” David Woo, head of global rates and foreign […]

Contrarian Indicators Signaling “It is time to buy stocks”

Contrarian Indicators Signaling “It is time to buy stocks”

$SPY, $XAU, $BAC, $JPL, $USB All US financial markets are closed Monday, in observance of Labor Day. It may have taken $204-B of equity outflows this year, but the BofAML Bull & Bear Indicator is finally flagging a contrarian “buy signal,” its 1st since 3 January. Bank of America Merrill Lynch (NYSE:BAC) is Bullish on […]

Wall Street Shares Dipped Tuesday, Gold Rallies on Recession Fear

Wall Street Shares Dipped Tuesday, Gold Rallies on Recession Fear

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Wall Street dipped Tuesday, weighed down by financial stocks as a deepening of the Treasury yield curve inversion raised recession worries again, and uncertainty over the progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China. A deepening of the inversion in the yield curve between the 2-year and 10-year […]

Gold, Silver Up, USD Down, Safe-Haven the Focus

Gold, Silver Up, USD Down, Safe-Haven the Focus

$GLD, $SLV, $USD, $XAU, $XAG Gold rose more than 1% Tuesday as fears of a possible recession gripped investors following disappointing US economic data, while silver marked $18 for the 1st time in nearly 2 years. Spot gold was up 1% at $1,540.57 oz at 1:41p EDT (1741 GMT), US gold futures for December settled […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Recession Special Report Bank of America’s (NYSE:BAC) CEO has just 1 reason why he does not see a recession looming. Mr. Moynihan says the “US consumer continues to spend and that will keep the US economy in good shape.” “But what is going to make that happen is the underling […]

President Trump: “Fed Could Fuel ‘Record-Setting’ Economy With Rate Cuts”

President Trump: “Fed Could Fuel ‘Record-Setting’ Economy With Rate Cuts”

$USD Thursday, President Trump said U economic growth could be record-setting if the Fed would lower interest rates further, as econ reports Thursday painted a mixed picture of the nation’s economy. “The Economy is doing really well. The Federal Reserve can easily make it Record Setting,” President Trump said on Tweeted. The government Thursday said initial claims […]

The ‘Inverted Yield Curb’ Explained

The ‘Inverted Yield Curb’ Explained

Traders and investors have been asking what is the “inverted yield curve”, this unusual bond market phenom came on briefly last week for the 1st time in over 12 years and shook Wall Street with talk that an economic downturn was imminent. Following a tweet from President Trump referencing the “CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!”, the […]

White House Believes Trade War Won’t Lead US Into Recession

White House Believes Trade War Won’t Lead US Into Recession

White House officials pushed back yesterday against concerns that economic growth may be faltering, saying they saw little risk of recession despite a volatile week on global bond markets, and insisting their trade war with China was doing no damage to the United States. ‘There is no recession in sight, White House economic adviser Larry […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH and Saying it Again: Stocks overreacted to the FOMC’s rate decision in the minds of investors, WH advisor calling for an emergency meeting of the committee to cut rates further. President Trump plays the tariff card to pressure Fed Chairman Powell, The market has become susceptible to every China headline, nothing new. […]

Stocks Rallied in Broad-based Advance

Stocks Rallied in Broad-based Advance

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX This week’s trade has been headlined by the yield-curve inversion theory, where the yield of shorter-dated debt rises above its longer-term counterpart. On Wednesday, the yield 10-yr T-Note rate briefly fell below the 2-year T-Note a condition that has sometimes been a recession indicator. The degree to which investors have crowded […]

Gold Headed to $2,300 oz, Stocks Seen Much Higher Too

Gold Headed to $2,300 oz, Stocks Seen Much Higher Too

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX, $XAU, $GLD The US stock market finished mixed Thursday, as investors weighed the resiliency of the US consumer Vs growth concerns. The S&P 500 (+0.3%) and DJIA(+0.4%) finished higher, while the NAS Comp (-0.1%) and Russell 2000 (-0.4%) finished lower. The overall uncertainty from the US-China trade dispute is high […]

Tame Producer Inflation Supports Case for Another Fed Rate Cut in September

Tame Producer Inflation Supports Case for Another Fed Rate Cut in September

US producer prices increased moderately in July, lifted by a rebound in the cost of energy products, while underlying producer inflation retreated, which could allow the Fed to cut interest rates again next month. The benign inflation report from the Labor Department on Friday could boost expectations for a half-percentage-point cut at the Fed’s 17-18 Sept. policy […]

President Trump, “Fed Behind Market Turmoil, Not Trade War”

President Trump, “Fed Behind Market Turmoil, Not Trade War”

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Wednesday, President Trump targeted Fed policy as the reason for this recent market turmoil. In raising interest rates 4X last year “the Federal Reserve acted far too quickly, and now is very, very late,” in reversing itself and cutting borrowing costs, President Trump tweeted. “Too bad, so much to gain on […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Stocks overreacted to the FOMC’s rate decision in the minds of investors, WH advisor calling for an emergency meeting of the committee to cut rates further. President Trump plays the tariff card to pressure Fed Chairman Powell, . The market has become susceptible to every China headline, nothing new. […]

Savvy Money is Betting Both Sides of the US-China Trade Dispute

Savvy Money is Betting Both Sides of the US-China Trade Dispute

$SPY, $SPX Hedge-fund billionaire Ray Dalio advised savvy investors to bet on “both horses in the race” amid rising trade tensions between the US and China. He argued that investors still have a historic opportunity to buy into China as it opens up its markets to foreign investments. “Would you have not wanted to invest with […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Last week the market was in consolidation mode and tested the 50-Day MA’s and bounced and… Employment report showed solid jobs growth in July Major averages found buying support at 50-Day MAs INDUSTRY WATCH Strong: Real Estate, Utilities, Consumer Staples Weak: Information Technology, Energy, Materials The CBOE Volatility Index has […]

ECB Vs Fed in ‘Undeclared’ Currency War…Tensions Rising

ECB Vs Fed in ‘Undeclared’ Currency War…Tensions Rising

FLASH: Fed policy makers reportedly are being forced to cut interest rates because of the European Central Bank’s much-lower policy rate. If losing demand to Europe weakens US growth and threatens to push inflation too low, US rates also must also fall. “The ECB’s policy rate, at minus 0.4%, is already nearly 3 percentage points […]

Gold is ‘The Defense’ Vs Falling USD and Recession

Gold is ‘The Defense’ Vs Falling USD and Recession

$GLD, $GDX, $XAU, $USD FLASH: Gold is in Vogue while this new fresh wave of monetary easing blows a bubble in risk assets, aka “always take what the market gives” Note: On 26 July, the European Central Bank (ECB) made an announcement that could have an impact of future gold prices. According to Reuters, European […]

Investment Thoughts, No Recession in Sight

Investment Thoughts, No Recession in Sight

Investment thoughts FLASH: President Trump continues to hammer the Fed, and the market smells the cheap money coming. Pundits are calling for the Fed to stick to its mandate and ignore the usual election cycle games. A broadside about the ineffective trade policies and the damage that is doing to growth, employment and price stability […]

Fed’s Balance Sheet is in the Trillions, Rate Cut Signals No Further Shrinking

Fed’s Balance Sheet is in the Trillions, Rate Cut Signals No Further Shrinking

The Fed is widely expected to reduce interest rates late this month. That probably means its campaign to shrink its balance sheet is over, leaving the central bank with trillions of dollars more than before the Y 2008 financial crisis. Beginning a decade ago in a bid to fight the Great Recession, the Fed by […]

Fed Fueling a Recession, Chairman Powell On The Way Out

Fed Fueling a Recession, Chairman Powell On The Way Out

$DIA, $SPY, $SOX, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX President Trump will not renominate Jerome Powell for another term as Fed Chairman if re-elected. “That will lead to very different monetary policy, so the Fed is not fully independent of politics,” former Fed VC Fischer, an Hussein Obama appointee, said Sunday at a talk in Israel. By criticizing […]

Fed Saying, “Got Gold”

Fed Saying, “Got Gold”

$XAU, $GLD, $USD Mr. Market started seriously pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts. To be fair, the signal came from the Top of the economic politburo that matters that being the Federal Reserve. Speaking at an event at the Chicago Fed last Tuesday, Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that the Fed would likely cut […]

If you were paying close attention last week you Keyed on This…

If you were paying close attention last week you Keyed on This…

$EURUSD FLASH: Last week, Fed Chairman Powell said, “…we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.” With those few words Chairman Powell took the strength out of the argument for a recession because the Fed is very powerful. And with the stock market rallying, President Trump threatening more tariffs on China, stocks are just […]

The US Economy in Longest Expansion Ever.

The US Economy in Longest Expansion Ever.

This month, the US economy has been growing for 10 years running, tying the record for the longest expansion ever. Many people, including journalists and policy makers, see this as a great achievement. “I see nothing to celebrate. On the contrary, I think they are measuring success the wrong way”, says Narayana Kocherlakota He says, […]

Americans’ View of Job Market Hits New Highs

Americans’ View of Job Market Hits New Highs

FLASH: Americans’ confidence in the job market in May hit the highest level in Gallup’s records, which date back to Y 2001. A recent Gallup poll found the following: Overall views of the economy remain positive. Over 7 in 10 Americans feel positively about the US job market. Employment optimism among workforce is highest since 2000. […]

Fed Must Cut Interest Rates Despite Strong 3.2% GDP Growth

Fed Must Cut Interest Rates Despite Strong 3.2% GDP Growth

FLASH: White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow says the Fed should still cut interest rates despite strong economic growth in Q-1. The government said GDP, expanded by 3.2% in Q-1 of this year, which the veteran financial guru and former Ronald Reagan adviser called “a blow out number.” “The inflation rate continues to slip lower […]

Shayne Heffernan on the Recession 2020

Shayne Heffernan on the Recession 2020

Shayne Heffernan on the Recession 2020 There has been much speculation recently in the press about the impending global crash and the inevitable fallout it will cause. The author analyses some of the reasons being given from some of the most well known economists around the world and has some more bad news for us […]

The S&P 500 Roars into April, No Foolin!

The S&P 500 Roars into April, No Foolin!

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: The S&P 500 gaped open after better than expected China’s Manufacturing PMI (actual 50.5; expected 49.5; prior 49.2) and Non-Manufacturing PMI (actual 54.8; expected 54.5; prior 54.3) reinforced the idea that global economic activity is rebounding. The upbeat tone drove a rally in stocks with high-beta groups like the […]

How Far South is China’s Rapid Growth Slowdown Headed?

How Far South is China’s Rapid Growth Slowdown Headed?

The growing mystery of where China’s rapid slowdown is headed may become the biggest risk on the horizon. The world economy. Recession Watch: The global economy’s in its weakest shape since the financial crisis 10 years ago. China got more affirming evidence of its Big slowdown, with industrial output and retail sales softening and a […]

Global Economy Hits Weakest Patch Since Financial Crisis

Global Economy Hits Weakest Patch Since Financial Crisis

The global economy’s softened throughout Y 2018 has left the pace of expansion the weakest since the global financial crisis a decade ago. A new GDP tracker puts world growth at 2.1% on a Q-Q annualized basis, down from about 4% in the middle of last year. While there is a chance that the economy […]

Fear of Recession Looms in China

Fear of Recession Looms in China

FLASH: President Trump’s tariffs slows China growth engine China’s exports fell the most in 3 years in February, while imports fell for a 3rd month running, pointing to a further slowdown in the economy and a trade recession despite a PBoC”s support measures. The shockingly weak readings from the world’s largest trading nation added to […]

Dimon Cautious, JPMorgan Positions for a Recession

Dimon Cautious, JPMorgan Positions for a Recession

$JMP, $GS, $USD FLASH: Jamie and ‘Goldie’ have different outlooks JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon does not agree with economic doomsayers. The boss of the largest US bank acknowledged a growing number of potential obstacles to the economy that carried his firm to record profits last year. That caution was reflected in JPMorgan Chase & […]

The Bulls Are In Charge of the US Stock Market

The Bulls Are In Charge of the US Stock Market

FLASH: This a Special Report, looking ahead at this leg of the longest Bull run in market history The US Stock Market: The Bulls Vs The Bears Russell 2000 +16.4% YTD NAS Comp +12.6% YTD DJIA +11.0% YTD S&P 500 +10.7% YTD US stocks rallied late last week into options expiration, even as some analysts felt like they should […]

Fed says, “Economy in Good Place”

Fed says, “Economy in Good Place”

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Fed officials are getting their stories aligned on the US economy. Cleveland’s Loretta Mester says it’s in a “very good spot.” Or a “pretty good place,” as Kansas City’s Esther George has it, faithfully echoing Chairman Jerome Powell’s “the economy is good.” Their remarks, made Tuesday and Wednesday, aim […]

There is No Indication of a Recession Coming to the US, Economy is Strong, Growth is Steady

There is No Indication of a  Recession Coming to the US, Economy is Strong, Growth is  Steady

Tune out the Noise! There has been a slowdown in the United States’ economy when it comes to Europe and China, but overall, the economy remains “quite strong,” and there are no indications of a looming recession, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said Tuesday. “We still see tremendous investment in capital and human investments,” Mr. […]

Market Hears Powell’s Comments, Rally Extends

Market Hears Powell’s Comments, Rally Extends

$DIA, $SPY. $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX No recession in sight, No rate hikes ahead. Thursday, Federal Chairman Jerome Powell said the US central bank has the ability to be patient on policy given inflation is stable, allowing it to assesses whether the US economy will slow this year as some in financial markets worry.initial comments boosted […]

Slower Growth Does Not Signal a Recession

Slower Growth Does Not Signal a Recession

The US economy is doing great, there is no recession in sight Mohamed El-Erian argues that just because US economic growth appears to have eased that does not mean there is a recession ahead. “This concept that a slowdown in the U.S. means recession or means a financial crisis — that’s just wrong,” El-Erian, chief economic […]

Looking Ahead: Seeing No Rate Hikes, No Recession, 20%+ Rally Ahead

Looking Ahead: Seeing No Rate Hikes, No Recession, 20%+ Rally Ahead

$SPY, $GLD Surprise, after all of the ‘bunk’ you have heard since early October, do not be shocked that there will be no additional Fed rate hikes, a 20% S&P 500 rally and no recession.. Byron Wein defines “surprise” as an event that the average investor would only assign a 33% chance of taking place […]

No Recession in 2019, Volatility to Continue

No Recession in 2019, Volatility to Continue

2019 Will Bring Volatility, But No Recession, UBS Said in its year end report The year will bring increased volatility but no recession, UBS predicts in its “2019 Year Ahead” outlook report. Because of that, investors should stay invested and look for opportunities that the uncertain market will provide, the financial firm advised. On balance, […]

Markets Rebound, Growth Fears Overblown

Markets Rebound, Growth Fears Overblown

Wall Street strategists work to calm equity investors, saying their worries over the economy are overdone. $SPY, $JPM, $GS JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) argues that the risk of an economic recession is “overpriced” with the latest stock sell-off. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) says, the decline in US stocks has opened up a rare divergence between the market’s performance […]

US Household Wealth +$2-Trillion in Q-3  Driven by Stocks and Real Estate

US Household Wealth +$2-Trillion in Q-3  Driven by Stocks and Real Estate

US Household Wealth +$2-Trillion in Q-3 Driven by Stocks and Real Estate $SPY The  stock market rally since 8 November 2016 drove US household net worth to a record high of $109-T in Q-3 The Fed said Thursday that the value of Americans’ stock and mutual fund holdings soared $1.2T. Home values rose $200-B. Other […]

Best Time Since President Trump’s Election to Buy Stocks

Best Time Since President Trump’s Election to Buy Stocks

Best Time Since President Trump’s Election to Buy Stocks $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ,$RUTX, $VXX Savvy investors, sidelined and sitting on cash are setting up to come back into this market The sell-off that started in October is a healthy correction in this Bull market and investors should continue to tune out the Noise. The beaten down […]

As Market Corrects, Huge Opportunities Come to Light

As Market Corrects, Huge Opportunities Come to Light

As Market Corrects, Huge Opportunities Come to Light $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX This Bull market correction is/will yield huge opportunities for savvy and patient participants. If you have to put money to work in the market now, we suggest you go into the defensive names in healthcare, consumer staples and utilities In tech 1 will […]

No US Recession in Sight, Talk is ‘Nonsense’

No US Recession in Sight, Talk is ‘Nonsense’

No US Recession in Sight, Talk is ‘Nonsense’ $SPY Rejecting economic speculation the correcting stock market is signaling an oncoming recession, White House chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow called the talk “nonsense” and added “recession is so far in the distance I cannot see it.” “I am reading some of the weirdest stuff about how […]

Growth in the US Economy Remains Strong

Growth in the US Economy Remains Strong

Growth in the US Economy Remains Strong The Fed is expected to raise interest rates again next month and 3X next year The probability of a US recession in the next 2 years, while low, moved up to a median 35% from 30% in the latest monthly Reuters survey of economists taken between 13-19 November. […]