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Recession or Not, Hard to Say…

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#recession #economy #growth #GNP #NBER

“While 2 Quarters running of negative growth is often considered a recession, it is not an official definition”–Paul Ebeling 

The Big Q: The US economy just had a 2nd Quarter of negative growth. Is it in a recession?

The Big A: Hard to say.

A nonprofit, non-partisan organization called the National Bureau of Economic Research determines when the US economy is in a recession. An NBER committee made up of eight economists makes that determination and many factors go into that calculation.

The White House has pushed back against calling the current economy a recession. It is no doubt aware of the role the economy is going to play in the midterm elections.

Mr. Biden cited record job growth and foreign business investment as signs of strength in the economy. “That doesn’t sound like a recession to me,” Mr. Biden concluded.

Schoolmarm Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen noted in a recent appearance on NBC’s Meet the Press that while 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth is generally considered a recession, conditions in the economy are unique.

“I don’t think the NBER would look at the data right now and say the economy is in a recession,” says the chief US economist at Bank of America Securities.

But it is unclear how much Americans care about whether the economy satisfies a specific, highly-technical definition, or it does not.

Have a prosperous day, Keep the Faith!

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Paul A. Ebeling, a polymath, excels, in diverse fields of knowledge Including Pattern Recognition Analysis in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange, and he is the author of "The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a highly regarded, weekly financial market commentary. He is a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to over a million cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognize Ebeling as an expert.