Factory Output Up More Than Estimated, Autos Advance

Factory Output Up More Than Estimated, Autos Advance

$F, $GM, $FCAU, $TM FLASH: America is open for business. US manufacturing output accelerated in June, climbing for the 2nd month running, thanks in large part to increased production of motor vehicles and parts. The Federal Reserve said Tuesday manufacturing production rose 0.4% last month, above the 0.2% expected by analysts in a poll. The June numbers […]

President Trump’s Approval Hits 1st-Term High at 47%

President Trump’s Approval Hits 1st-Term High at 47%

This strong economy has President Trump’s approval rating hitting a high point for his administration at 44% among adults and 47% among registered voters in the latest The Washington Post/ABC News poll. These ratings represent a 5-percentage-point uptick since April, when special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigative report was released. President Trump scores highest on the economy, with […]

US Job Growth Tops Forecast

US Job Growth Tops Forecast

FLASH: President Trump, “The Economy Would Be ‘Rocket Ship’ If Fed Cut Rates” US job growth rebounded strongly in June, with government payrolls surging, but persistent moderate wage gains and mounting evidence the economy was losing momentum could still encourage the Fed to cut interest rates this month. The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on […]

Fed Needs More Information to Support Rate

Fed Needs More Information to Support Rate

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Tuesday, a Fed policymaker expressed skepticism that an interest rate cut is the right move until there are more signs the economy is moving to a truly weaker path. “I prefer to gather more information before considering a change in our monetary policy stance,” Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said in […]

Goldie Does Not See the “Insurance” Rate Cut Coming

Goldie Does Not See the “Insurance” Rate Cut Coming

$GS, $CME Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) economists said they are skeptical of “insurance” US interest rate decreases from the Fed to forestall possible slowing in US economic growth due to global trade tensions. A surprise escalation in trade tensions between Washington and Beijing since May, together with low inflation, have spurred bets among traders the Fed […]

President Trump on Fed Chairman Powell, “I disagree with him ‘entirely'”

President Trump on Fed Chairman Powell, “I disagree with him ‘entirely

$DIA, $SPY, $SOX, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Friday, President Trump sharply criticized Fed Chairman Powell in an interview aired Friday, blaming him for raising interest rates and damaging the US economy. “He is my pick, and I disagree with him entirely,” he said in an interview with ABC News that was filmed in the back of a […]

President Trump’s Numbers Give Dems Nightmares on Criminal Justice Reform

President Trump’s Numbers  Give Dems Nightmares on Criminal Justice Reform

FLASH: The Second Chance Act giving Democrats nightmares. With their hopes for defeating President Trump in Y 2020 depending largely on turning out the black vote in its usual monolithic numbers, Democrats have been relentless in trying to paint The Trump Administration as evil for Black-Americans. But a report released this month by the U.S. Sentencing […]

If you were paying close attention last week you Keyed on This…

If you were paying close attention last week you Keyed on This…

$EURUSD FLASH: Last week, Fed Chairman Powell said, “…we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.” With those few words Chairman Powell took the strength out of the argument for a recession because the Fed is very powerful. And with the stock market rallying, President Trump threatening more tariffs on China, stocks are just […]

U.S. Hiring Has High A 13 Year High

U.S. Hiring Has High A 13 Year High

U.S. employers are reporting the strongest nationwide hiring intentions in 13 years at +21%, according to the Q3 2019 ManpowerGroup (NYSE: MAN) Employment Outlook Survey.* The last time the survey of more than 11,500 employers reported an Outlook as high as +21% was in Q3 2006. Employers in all 13 industries report double-digit hiring intentions, suggesting […]

Market Extends Rally Off of Its Best Week in 2019

Market Extends Rally Off of Its Best Week in 2019

$DIA, $SPY, $SOX, Investors heavily exposed to US stocks just had their best week YTD. But the rebound has raised several questions related to market behavior, policy and economics. How they are answered will prove consequential not only for market prospects but for the global economy. And, notwithstanding the lack of decisive answers at this stage, […]

US Consumers Upbeat

US Consumers Upbeat

US consumer debt increased by the most in 5 months in April and topped estimates, suggesting more upbeat sentiment among Americans is supporting borrowing and spending. Total credit expanded $17.5-B from the prior month following an upwardly revised $11-B gain in March, Federal Reserve figures showed Friday. Revolving debt outstanding increased the most since November while non-revolving […]

US Economy Growing Despite Jobs Slowdown

US Economy Growing Despite Jobs Slowdown

Under President Trump the US economy is continuing to grow, despite a  jobs report that showed job growth had slowed down sharply in May while wages rose less than expected. “We have had extraordinary job growth over the past couple of years, record job growth,” VP Mike Pence’s Chief of Staff Marc Short told reporters. “Unemployment is at a […]

US-China Trade War Negotiations

US-China Trade War Negotiations

A news report by China.org.cn on China’s attitude towards China-US trade friction. On June 2, China released a white paper titled “China’s Position on the China-U.S. Economic and Trade Consultations.” It reviewed the tortuous economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States over the past year, clarified China’s position on the subject, and addressed issues of common concern for various sectors of society and the […]

US Labor Market Solid

US Labor Market Solid

The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits was flat to unchanged last week, suggesting the labor market remains on solid footing despite slowing economic activity. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits were flat to unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 218,000 for the week ended 1 June, the Labor Department said Thursday. Data for the prior […]

The US Economy in Longest Expansion Ever.

The US Economy in Longest Expansion Ever.

This month, the US economy has been growing for 10 years running, tying the record for the longest expansion ever. Many people, including journalists and policy makers, see this as a great achievement. “I see nothing to celebrate. On the contrary, I think they are measuring success the wrong way”, says Narayana Kocherlakota He says, […]

Rate Cut Looms, Wall Street Rallies

Rate Cut Looms, Wall Street Rallies

$DIA,$SPY, $SOX, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: The technology sector was the biggest boost to the S&P with a 3.3% advance, led by gains in Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) Wall Street’s 3 major indexes rallied Tuesday to clock their biggest one-day gains in five months after Fed Chairman Powell left the door open for a […]

Australian Dollar

Australian Dollar

As the Fed moves to cuts, the battle will now be joined with the RBA. We’ll need more stock market noise for the Fed to shift quickly to cuts but they are on the way, and the reserve bank of Australia looks its usual confused self around the Aussie outlook and which levers to pull, […]

Trade, Other Risks, Signal Rate Cut May Be “Warranted Soon”

Trade, Other Risks, Signal Rate Cut May Be “Warranted Soon”

$DIA, $SPY, $SOX, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Growing expectations for the Fed to cut rates to address slower growth and muted inflation; 2-yr yield drops 12 bpts to 1.83% . St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (FOMC Voter) said that slower economic growth could be sharper-than-expected due to the trade uncertainty. Mr. Bullard added that […]

No Country is Safe from Trump’s Tariffs

No Country is Safe from Trump’s Tariffs

$GLD, $XAU, $SLV, $USD, $GOLD, $NEM, $VXX FLASH: Gold is finally seeing some bullish momentum as trade ructions escalate, fueling the biggest rally among the top miners in seven months. President Trump’s plan to impose a 5% tariff on all Mexican goods over illegal immigration rattled financial markets, boosting the haven appeal of the precious […]

Mexico, Under Trump Tariff Pressure, ‘Optimistic’ for a Fast Resolution

Mexico, Under Trump Tariff Pressure, ‘Optimistic’ for a Fast Resolution

Saturday, Mexico’s President said he expects”good results” from talks planned in Washington about President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Mexican goods, and floated the possibility Mexico could tighten controls on migration. President Trump said he will apply the tariffs on 10 June if Mexico does not halt the flow of illegal immigration, largely from […]

President Trump Urged to “Go All the Way in Waging China Trade War”

President Trump Urged to “Go All the Way in Waging China Trade War”

President Trump should intensify his trade battle with China by barring Chinese businesses from US capital markets and technology, his former White House chief strategist, Steve Bannon, said. ‘He has to go all the way; it’s not a trade war, it’s an economic war they’ve been running against the West,’ Mr. Bannon said in an […]

Americans’ View of Job Market Hits New Highs

Americans’ View of Job Market Hits New Highs

FLASH: Americans’ confidence in the job market in May hit the highest level in Gallup’s records, which date back to Y 2001. A recent Gallup poll found the following: Overall views of the economy remain positive. Over 7 in 10 Americans feel positively about the US job market. Employment optimism among workforce is highest since 2000. […]

US Economy Continues to Expand

US Economy Continues to Expand

$DIA, $SPY, $SOX, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: This economic expansion is set to become longest in US history, according to the latest leading-indicators data. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US increased 0.2% in April to 112.1, following a 0.3% increase in March, and a 0.2% increase in February. “The US LEI rose […]

Bitcoin’s (BTCUSD) Rally Cheers Some, Worries Others

Bitcoin’s (BTCUSD) Rally Cheers Some, Worries Others

$BTCUSD Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit its highest mark in 10 months, raising hopes among cryptocurrency fans of greater mainstream acceptance, but others urged investor caution. Bitcoin, which lost 75% of its value in Y 2018, has soared by 24% since Friday and more than 2X’d in price so far this year. Currently Bitcoin is trading […]

President Trump is Feeding China a ‘Banquet of Bitter Fruit’

President Trump is Feeding China a ‘Banquet of Bitter Fruit’

FLASH: US and China at impasse over trade, Larry Kudlow says new tariffs will remain. The United States and China appeared at a deadlock over trade negotiations Sunday as Washington demanded promises of concrete changes to Chinese law and Beijing said it would not swallow any “bitter fruit” that harmed its interests. The trade dispute […]

China is “Cautiously Optimistic”on Trump Trade Talks Despite Tariffs’ Escalation

China is “Cautiously Optimistic”on Trump Trade Talks Despite Tariffs’ Escalation

China and the US have agreed to hold more trade talks in Beijing, Vice Premier Liu He said as President Trump ordered his trade Chief to begin the process of imposing tariffs on all remaining imports from China. Mr. Liu voiced some optimism on reaching a deal, but said there were “issues of principle” on […]

Democrats Cannot Impeach President Trump for Creating Best Economy in US History

Democrats Cannot Impeach President Trump for Creating Best Economy in US History

President Trump railed Monday against calls from an ugly/mean-spirited Representative Al Green (D-TX) for his impeachment, saying that Democrats cannot win the election fairly and that a President cannot be impeached for creating “the best economy in our country’s history.” “’Democrat Texas Congressman Al Green says impeachment is the only thing that can prevent President […]

Weak Inflation May Lead Fed to Cut Interest Rates

Weak Inflation May Lead Fed to Cut Interest Rates

$USD, $SPY, $QQQ, $DIA FLASH: Slowing inflation may lead the Fed to cut interest rates, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said in a TV interview Monday. “The Fed is independent, but they have been themselves talking about coming and lowering their inflation target, which might mean a lower interest rate adjustment on their own […]

Fed Must Cut Interest Rates Despite Strong 3.2% GDP Growth

Fed Must Cut Interest Rates Despite Strong 3.2% GDP Growth

FLASH: White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow says the Fed should still cut interest rates despite strong economic growth in Q-1. The government said GDP, expanded by 3.2% in Q-1 of this year, which the veteran financial guru and former Ronald Reagan adviser called “a blow out number.” “The inflation rate continues to slip lower […]

US Economy: “3.2% GDP Growth Absolutely Sustainable, Could Go Higher”

US Economy: “3.2% GDP Growth Absolutely Sustainable, Could Go Higher”

FLASH: White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said the “blockbuster” 3.2% economic growth in Q-1 is “absolutely” sustainable. The Trump Administration has already been forecasting 3.2% economic growth for Y 2019. “Maybe we would revise it up,” he said in a TV interview.. “The number was 3/10ths lower because of the government shutdown and … […]

US Factory Output Flat to Unchanged

US Factory Output Flat to Unchanged

US manufacturing output was flat to unchanged in March after 2 straight monthly decliners. The Federal Reserve said Tuesday manufacturing production last month was restrained by weak motor vehicle and wood products output. Data for February was revised up to show output at factories falling 0.3% instead of declining 0.4% as previously reported. Economists polled by […]

US Economy Booming!

US Economy Booming!

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: The Trump Administration’s tax law is fueling economic growth Monday, White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow that while many people are complaining about having to write bigger checks to meet their annual Tax Day obligation, policies that were put into effect under President Trump mean improved prosperity. […]

S&P 500 Up for 7 Day’s Running Seeing 2900 Next

S&P 500 Up for 7 Day’s Running Seeing 2900 Next

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: The S&P 500 gained 0.5% Friday in a broad-based advance that was supported by a Goldilocks Employment Situation Report for March. The benchmark index advanced for the 7th session running, increasits its weekly gainer to 2.1%, and closed within 10 points of the 2900 level. The US labor market […]

US Stock Market is Strong, Tune Out the Noise

US Stock Market is Strong, Tune Out the Noise

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The just released data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau show that the US monthly international trade deficit decreased in January 2019 from $59.9% in December (revised) to $51.1-B as expected, as imports decreased and exports increased. The goods deficit decreased $8.2-B in January […]

US Consumer Confidence Still Confident

US Consumer Confidence Still Confident

American consumers were feeling less confident this month amid continued volatility in the financial markets. The Conference Board, a business research group, says its consumer confidence index fell to 124.1 in March from 131.4 in February. The index, covering through 14 March measures consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions and their expectations for the next 6 months. […]

Key US Treasury Yields Lowest Since December 2017

Key US Treasury Yields Lowest Since December 2017

$DIA, $QQQ, $SPY, RUTX, $VXX FLASH: The Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell to their lowest levels since December 2017 Monday as investors evaluated last week’s Dovish pivot by the Fed. Last Wednesday the FOMC stunned investors by abandoning projections for any interest rate hikes this year and saying it would halt the steady decline of […]

Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) CEO Tim Cook ‘”Extremely Bullish” Global Economy

Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) CEO Tim Cook ‘”Extremely Bullish” Global Economy

$AAPL Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) CEO Tim Cook said Saturday that he is “extremely bullish” about the global economy based on the amount of innovation underway, and urged China to continue to “open up” due to the complaints of US and others that it is shutting foreign firms out of Key high-tech industries. In a speech at […]

President Trump’s Tariff Strategy Working…

President Trump’s Tariff Strategy Working…

$JPM JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon mow admits that President Trump’s strategy of imposing economic tariffs may just be paying off. “As a negotiating strategy, it might’ve worked,” Mr. Dimon said on TV. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin plan to travel to China next week for another round of […]

Germany Cuts Growth Forecast for 2019

Germany Cuts Growth Forecast for 2019

The German government’s panel of independent economic advisers has slashed its growth forecast for this year and is now predicting that the German economy will grow by only 0.8%. In a regular update, the panel cut its Y 2019 forecast from the previous 1.5% and said growth may accelerate next year to 1.7%. The experts […]

How Far South is China’s Rapid Growth Slowdown Headed?

How Far South is China’s Rapid Growth Slowdown Headed?

The growing mystery of where China’s rapid slowdown is headed may become the biggest risk on the horizon. The world economy. Recession Watch: The global economy’s in its weakest shape since the financial crisis 10 years ago. China got more affirming evidence of its Big slowdown, with industrial output and retail sales softening and a […]

US Consumers Cautious, Retail Sale Up a Bit

US Consumers Cautious, Retail Sale Up a Bit

US retail sales ex-automobiles rose slightly in January after a sharp drop in December, reflecting cautious optimism taken by consumers after athe 35 day partial government shutdown. The Commerce Department said Monday that retail sales increased just 0.2%, after a sharp fall of 1.6% in December, the biggest US decliner in 9 years. The economy has […]

Fed Responsible for Q-1 Slowdown, Stifling Trump Economy

Fed Responsible for Q-1 Slowdown, Stifling Trump Economy

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Fed stifling The Trump Economy The anti-Trump media is pointing to the economic slowdown, but economist Stephen Moore puts the blame on the Fed’s economist policy during our blockbuster Trump economy. “I’m a little worried about the economy slowing down a little bit, but we still have a blockbuster […]

Key Tell: Watch Labor Participation Rate in US Jobs

Key Tell: Watch Labor Participation Rate in US Jobs

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Job creation and wage growth are still important things to watch for in the monthly NFP report for February that will be released Friday. The other partial indicators already suggest that the labor market will remain solid. The focus now will be on the labor-force participation rate because the […]

Investors Want a Weaker USD, They Must be Patient for the ‘Buck’ to Weaken

Investors Want a Weaker USD, They Must be Patient for the ‘Buck’ to Weaken

$USD The Fed’s Beige Book was released Wednesday showing the US economy continues to be performing strongly. Manufacturing was stronger, employment remains strong across the economy, but bad weather and bad politics have taken their toll. On the latter, 50% of the reporting areas said that the government partial shutdown had been hurting local growth. […]

Few Reasons to End Fed’s ‘patient’ Stance on Rates

Few Reasons to End Fed’s ‘patient’ Stance on Rates

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Next Fed rate hike several FMOC meetings ahead With inflation muted, but other risks to the US economy on the rise, the Fed’s patience on policy is nowhere close to running out, with 1 previously Kawkish central banker Tuesday signaling he could wait until at least June before touching […]

“Green New Deal Will Destroy Our Economy”

“Green New Deal Will Destroy Our Economy”

FLASH: Larry Kudlow: ‘The Green New Deal Will Literally Destroy the Economy” White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow warns that Democrats proposing to overturn The Trump Administration’s success by offering socialist policies will derail economic growth. “I do notwant us to stand idly. I don’t want to let this stuff fester. I want it challenged, […]

US Stocks Setting Up for a Big Move North

US Stocks Setting Up for a Big Move North

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: US stocks finished flat on high volume We expect that US stocks will continue to move North new highs despite an earnings slowdown, that according to the patterns that are set/setting up now. HeffX-LTN is going contrarian Vs the Bears who are warning investors that the earnings slowdown will […]

Powell Sees Solid, but Slower US Economic Growth in 2019

Powell Sees Solid, but Slower US Economic Growth in 2019

The US economy will grow at a solid though slower pace in Y 2019 and the Fed will remain “patient” in deciding whether to further raise interest rates, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday. Chairman Powell reaffirmed the policy shift made by the Fed last month, telling a Senate Banking Committee hearing that “crosscurrents and […]

Trump Policy: Overhaul the Fed!

Trump Policy: Overhaul the Fed!

When the Fed’s FOMC policymakers met last month and put it 3-year rate-hike campaign on hold and backed ending a yearlong push to shrink their $4-T balance sheet, that was draining the liquidity out of the system and shrinking the wealth of American house holds by the trillions of dollars, they cited increased risks to […]

The Riddle of Climate Change

The Riddle of Climate Change

By Linda Goudsmit The Riddle: What climate does climate change change? The Answer: The political climate of course. Let me explain. Pollution and climate change are two separate issues. Environmental pollution is a man-made problem that humans can and should remedy. Taking responsibility for our behavior is a necessary part of civilized life and eliminating […]

Americans’ Economic Approval at 18-Yr Highs

Americans’ Economic Approval at 18-Yr Highs

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: 9 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher with information technology (+1.3%), communication services (+1.1%), and healthcare (+0.9%) leading the advance. On the other hand, the financials (-0.2%) and consumer staples (-0.3%) sectors finished in the Red. Today, Americans’ views of the US economy and optimism about its […]

“No Need to Hike Rates Again”

“No Need to Hike Rates Again”

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Trump Policy Traction, FOMC Minutes Due Wednesday Tuesday, New York Fed President John Williams said he is comfortable with the level US interest rates are at now, and sees no need to raise them again unless growth or inflation shift to an unexpectedly higher gear. In an interview with […]

‘The Red, White, Blue Deal’

‘The Red, White, Blue Deal’

FLASH: The Green New Deal is beyond Crazy If you have not been disappointed by politics lately, you have noy been paying attention. The political fantasies of today may not become some major change immediately, but they do set the tone for where could head in the next few years. The “Green New Deal” sounds too crazy […]

Gold and Mining Stocks Looks Bright & Shiny

Gold and Mining Stocks Looks Bright & Shiny

$GLD, $GOLD, $USD, $GDX, $GS FLASH: The savvy observers see Golden opps in the precious Yellow metal and its miners. Last September in this column we suggested it was time for investors to add gold to their portfolios. And that data shows that since that time, gold has gained nearly 10%. Gold marked to a […]

Socialism Would Set the US Back 100 Years

Socialism Would Set the US Back 100 Years

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow warns that Americans want to embrace capitalism and that the Democrat-led rush to socialism would set the nation back a 100 years. “If you are not a socialist in your 20’s you have no heart and if you are not a capitalist in your 30’s you have no mind. I think right now […]

Karl Rove, “Green New Deal ‘Laundry List of Lunatic Ideas'”

Karl Rove, “Green New Deal ‘Laundry List of Lunatic Ideas

FLASH: Green New Deal Reads Like a Democratic Party Suicide Pact Karl Rove, former White House deputy Chief of Staff, blasted the proposal by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), for a Green New Deal and called it a “laundry list of lunatic ideas.” His comments came Wednesday during an TV interview on “America’s Newsroom.” “She has a […]

Fed says, “Economy in Good Place”

Fed says, “Economy in Good Place”

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Fed officials are getting their stories aligned on the US economy. Cleveland’s Loretta Mester says it’s in a “very good spot.” Or a “pretty good place,” as Kansas City’s Esther George has it, faithfully echoing Chairman Jerome Powell’s “the economy is good.” Their remarks, made Tuesday and Wednesday, aim […]

AOC’s ‘Green New Deal’ Pointless

AOC’s ‘Green New Deal’ Pointless

Progressive Dem Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (D-NY) call for a proposed “Green New Deal” to protect the environment “seems pointless,” Deputy Press Secretary Hogan Gidley said Friday. “It is quite rich for Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez to point out the fact that we need to ruin our economy and stop all air travel and stop all cars in […]

NRF Forecasts Solid Retail Sales Growth for 2019

NRF Forecasts Solid Retail Sales Growth for 2019

The National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, forecasts that retail sales should grow between 3.8 and 4.4% to more than $3.8-T this year as shoppers remain in the mood to spend in a strong US economy and job market. The forecast, released Tuesday, is in line with the 4.6% gain the group preliminarily estimated […]

Visit These Places Now Before They Disappear

Visit These Places Now Before They Disappear

Instead of going with the crowds plan your travel this year with ecological/historical importance in mind. There are places in peril now that can still be enjoyed now, while actually helping the cause through proper booking and travel practices. Travel with good intent, with purposeful in choices, and believing these precious places on our planet […]

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