US Economy Cools, Fed’s Powell Hints a Rate Halt in 2019 Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has laid out a scenario for a pause in the central bank’s interest-rate hiking campaign sometime next year by highlighting potential headwinds cooling the US economy. Wednesday, Chairman Powell listed 3 possible challenges to growth in Y 2019, they are; […]
Wholesale Prices Rise Most in 6 Years; Gasoline and Food Spike US wholesale prices rose by the most in 6 years in October, led higher by more expensive gas, food, and chemicals. The Labor Department said Friday that the producer price index — which measures price increases before they reach the consumer — jumped 0.6% in […]
FOMC Leaves Key Fed Funds Rate Unchanged Little reaction to the FOMC announcement, the major averages now trade little changed from their pre-FOMC release levels. The Fed has left its Key policy rate unchanged but signaled that it plans to keep responding to the strong US economy with more interest rate hikes. The next rate […]
Two Years In, President Trump Holds Stock Market Bragging Rights $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Wednesday, US stocks rallied with broad gains led by the technology and healthcare sectors as investors made bets that a divided Congress would be good for equities. Democrats won control of the House Tuesday, while President Donald Trump’s Republican party […]
A 2019 Bear Market Event May Trigger a DJIA Move to 40,000 $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $MTAFF, $GLGDF, $RGLD, $FNV,$WPM You may recall in January 2016, the DJIA was trading at the 16,000 mark, when Yves Lamoureux, President of macroeconomic research firm Lamoureux & Co., said DIA would top 25,000 within 3-4 years. It did not take […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Earnings: Over 20% of S&P 500 companies have reported, 72% have beat The Street estimates Market is concerned about the Fed overreacting, as it always does. China’s economy is in decline Halloween Market Week: Tricks & Treats The US stock market’s technical indicators suggest […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Earnings: 20% of S&P 500 companies have reported, 70% have beat The Street estimates The S&P 500, DJIA and NAS Comp held their 200-Day SMA’s Friday Market is concerned about the Fed overreacting, as it always does. China’s decline is feared, may decline further, […]
Fed’s Current Monetary Policy Raise the Risks of Recession President Trump has criticized recent Fed rate increases, arguing that they threatened economic growth. The Fed’s current monetary policy path would raise the risks of recession in an economy where recent, unexpectedly strong growth may start to taper anyway, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said […]
Fed Hawks Want to Chill Roaring US Economy Despite sharp criticism from President Donald Trump for raising interest rates, Fed policymakers remain generally united on the need to raise borrowing costs further, according to minutes from their most recent policy meeting. Every policymaker backed the Fed’s September rate increase, according to the minutes of the Sept. […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Monday, earnings season starts in earnest For now traders are playing an oversold bounce. But, if this is a relief move, the later you enter, the worse risk/reward. So, be selective if you are adding more bounce plays. Also, look at some areas receiving […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX Columbus Day in the USA, Banks are Closed, Market is Open The market’s focus this week: Earnings Yes, it is earnings reporting season again, this frame always commands a great deal of attention because earnings drive stock prices over the long term. To that end, […]
US Economy Experiencing “Extraordinary Times”, Outlook Strong Tuesday, US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday that he sees no need to drop the central bank’s current gradual approach to raising interest rates. Chairman Powell said the combination of steady, low inflation and very low unemployment shows the country is going through “extraordinary times.” The Fed […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX The market’s focus this week: new money, earnings season, and the jobs report Friday. September was not a Southside month this year, solid but not huge. So many participants are expecting a selloff in October. It may happen, though it did not happen last year after a […]
US Home Mortgage Rates at Highest Mark in 7 Years+ Home borrowing costs will continue rising throughout the year in this strong economy Home mortgage rates in the US rose for a 5th week running, marking levels not seen in more than 7 years and are expected to continue to rise into Y 2019. The […]
S&P 500 ($SPY) Will Still Hit 3,000 Despite Fed Rate Hikes $SPY, $BX Blackstone’s (NYSE:BX) Byron Wien says the S&P 500 will still rise to 3,000 by year’s end despite the Federal Reserve’s plan to continue hiking interest rates. “At the beginning of the year, I said the market would reach 3,000 on the S&P […]
Fed Hikes, Removes ‘Dovish’ Language from Policy Statement $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The FOMC increased short-term interest rates Wednesday, as expected, raising the fed funds target range by 25 bpts to 2.00-2.25%. The move reflected an upbeat assessment of the economy that was identical to the central bank’s last policy statement 8 weeks ago, […]
OPEC of ‘Ripping Off’ World, President Trump Calls for Lower Crude Oil Prices $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX, $USO, $OIL Tuesday, US President Donald Trump accused members of the OPEC cartel of “ripping off” the world, as he called for a lowering of energy prices. “The United States stands ready to export our abundant affordable […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX The market’s focus this week FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday to talk a rate hike and more trade issues with China, Canada, and the EU. The heavy pressure is on China now. Then there is The Trump Administration’s feelings toward social media and WH […]
Expect the Fed to Predict Slower Growth, No Recession Ahead Investors have been worried about the potential for a US recession by Y 2020, this week the Fed policy makers are likely to project this 9-year-old expansion will last for a few more years. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants at the close of a […]
Gold Dips on News of Resumed US-China Trade Talks $GLD, $SLV, $USD Gold pared gains as China became a focus point again The possible progress in the trade dispute pressured the USD. Gold prices dipped Thursday as investors purchased riskier assets instead of seeking a safe-haven in gold, on news a new round of US-China […]
The Trump Effect: Low Unemployment Makes Economy ‘as Good as it Gets’ $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Current economic conditions are “as good as it gets” for the Fed, a Key policymaker said Thursday. Looking ahead, investors will receive the Employment Situation report for August Friday, the consensus expecting an increase of 187,000 in NFPs, an […]
US GDP Growing on Strong Domestic Demand The US economy set to charge ahead as fresh domestic demand carries it past some softening overseas, keeping the Fed on course for further interest-rate hikes later this year Households have more cash to spend than thought, thanks to pools of savings and President Donald Trump’s tax cuts. […]
Fed’s FOMC Votes 8-0 to Leave Fed Fund’s Rate Unchanged $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RTUX, $VXX The FOMC left the benchmark interest rate unchanged, and reiterating their plan to gradually lift borrowing costs to keep the economy expanding at a healthy pace. Economic activity has been “rising at a strong rate,” and the unemployment rate “has […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX Looking at the major US stock market action as President Trump bears down hard on trade issues, focuses on SCOTUS pick, teeing up NATO demands and the Putin Summit. The market will tell us now if the Key moves Thursday and Friday on moderate volume will hold […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX Looking at the major US stock market action as President Trump continues coming down hard on trade issues, and NATO next. Over the past few weeks we have a lot of pundit chatter about a market top, and stocks sold into the test during that frame. Notably, new […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX Looking at the major US stock market action President Trump coming down hard in trade issues, the The Congress’ continuing dust up with the DOJ and FBI. S&P 500, DJIA posted oversold bounces as growth was favored for a 2nd session running Some new areas are attracting money […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX Looking at the major US stock market action in light of the recent NKorean peace summit, no US-China trade war, and President Trump the The Congress’ harangue with the DOJ and FBI. US, China trade tariffs; market held up well. Economic data good not great, better coming […]
US Economy Growing at 4.8% Annual Rate The US economy is growing at a 4.8% annualized rate in Q-2, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed Thursday, following data that showed domestic retail sales grew at its strongest pace in 6 months in May. The latest estimate on gross domestic product growth was faster […]
FOMC Acknowledges Growing Inflation Ending Crisis-Era Guidance $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The Fed raised it overnight fed funds rates Wednesday shifting from policies used to battle the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession. In raising its benchmark overnight lending rate a 1/4 bpt to a range of between 1.75 and 2%, the FOMC dropped its […]
Investors See a Rate Hike From the FOMC Wednesday $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Retail investors are not waiting to see inflation coming, they know it is here. And are moving money into securities that hedge against risks of rising price pressures as the U Labor Department is set to give its latest reading on […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX Looking at the major US stock market action in light of NKorea peace talks, no US-China trade war, and the keep’em guessing shambles President Trump left the Canadian G7 Summit in. Thursday was a bit dicey in the US for the NAS Comp, but it recovered […]
US Labor Market Tightens, Jobless Claims Fall $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to a further tightening in labor market conditions. The robust US labor market and firming inflation have cemented expectations the Fed will raise interest rates next week at the FOMC meeting. […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX Looking at the major US stock market indexes in light of looming Korea peace no US-China trade war and the current NFPs. Note: Former US President Barack Hussein Obama, though he likes to take credit, did not set the economy up for this super recovery, what […]
Forex Morning Briefing $DXY, $EUR, $GBP, $JPY Commentary: The political turmoil in Italy seems to have spurred the demand for USDs. PE US Dollar (.DXY) Index 94.95 tapped 95 Tuesday, now USD should dip. If it breaks 95.63, then we will look for higher marks. Wednsday a dip to 94.6 could happen before another rise to 95. […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX Looking at the major US stock market indexes in light of looming Korea peace and no US-China trade war. Overall, last week saw the major US stock market indices holding their ranges, trying but not breaking out, RUTX will try harder this week. There are solid […]
Forex Morning Briefing $DXY, $EUR, $GBP, $JPY Commentary: Nothing new. PE US Dollar (.DXY) Index at 94.347 tested support near 93.86, then bounced to 94.50, thus testing resistance trendline. If breaks support near 94.10 in here, then see 93.6, which should then produce a bounce for a test at 95, seeing the cap at 95.00-95.65. EUR (Euro) at […]
Forex Morning Briefing $DXY, $EUR, $GBP, $JPY Commentary: Nothing new. PE The US Dollar (.DXY) Index at 93.921 tested support at 93.6 Thursday. While trading above 93.7, it should test at 94 again and then perhaps to 94.2-94.4, them dip to 94. The Northside cap is 95.00-95.65. EUR (Euro) at 1.1710 rose to 1.175 Thursday and dipped, may see […]
Forex Morning Briefing $DXY, $EUR, $GBP, $JPY Commentary: The release of FOMC’s May dovish minutes seems to have had opposite effects on USD strength and US yields. While a stronger indication of a rate hike in June imparted strength to USD, its tolerance for inflation above 2% pushed yields down. PE The US Dollar (.DXY) Index at […]
President Trump, “Big news coming for American Autoworkers” $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US President Donald Trump said that “big news” was coming that would be welcomed by US auto workers, and he suggested it was somehow linked to NAFTA trade talks. “There will be big news coming soon for our great American Autoworkers. After many […]
Forex Morning Briefing $DXY, $EUR, $GBP, $JPY Commentary: Nothing new. PE The US Dollar (.DXY) Index at 93.65 tested support at 93.29 Tuesday and now seems to be rising from there back towards 94. A deeper correction towards the 5 Wk MA 93.0-93.5 is on the cards, which might happen after a retest of 94. If so, the Northside target at 95 […]
Forex Morning Briefing $DXY, $EUR, $GBP, $JPY Commentary: Nothing new. PE The US Dollar (.DXY) Index at 93.57 made a new high of 94.06 Monday dipped, and is currently trading at 93.4-93.5. There are still good chances of .DXY testing at 95 in this week or next. EUR (Euro) at 1.1782 could either dip from here, or could extend North […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ Looking at the major US stock market indexes in light of no US-China trade war. The Major Market Futures as of this writing S&P 500 SPC1 Jun 18 $2,728.80 +15.80 +0.58% NAS 100 Future NQC1 Jun 18 $6,923.75 +49.75 +0.72% Last Friday, the major US stock market indices were […]
Forex Morning Briefing $DXY, $EUR, $GBP, $JPY Commentary: Nothing new. PE The US Dollar (.DXY) at 93.79 saw a high near 93.8 Friday and is continuing to trade there. A dip might be restricted support at 93.4-93.5. There is a good chance of a .DXY test at 95 in this week or next week. EUR (Euro) at 1.1753 […]
Forex Morning Briefing $DXY, $EUR, $GBP, $JPY Commentary: Nothing new. PE The US Dollar (.DXY) at 93.45 marked a low at 93.12 Thursday but did not test support at 93.25-93.00, that test could happen next week, then after .DXY should move to 94-95 where is will likely be capped. EUR (Euro) at 1.1804 marked a high at 1.1837 […]
Forex Morning Briefing $DXY, $EUR, $GBP, $JPY Commentary: Pressure on the Buck is up. PE The US Dollar (.DXY) at 93.12 is dipping after testing at 93.6 Wednesday. It could dip further towards support on daily at 93 before resuming its uptrend. It should target 94-95 yet this month. EUR (Euro) at 1.1831 dipped to a low of 1.1763 […]
Forex Morning Briefing $DXY, $EUR, $GBP, $JPY Commentary: Pressure on the Buck is up. PE The US Dollar (.DXY) at 93.30 moved up after the benchmark US 10yr T-Note Year yield rose past 3% Monday. This was in response to US Retail Sales data. Note: .DXY moved up from the 13-Day MA at 92.5 to a high near 93.46. […]
Forex Morning Briefing $DXY, $EUR, $GBP, $JPY Commentary: Pressure on the Buck up and down. PE US Dollar (.DXY) Index at 92.64 saw support at the 13-Day MA and moved back to 92.6. Note: The markets await the Retail Sales data Tuesday. If it turns out to be higher than expected, it could take yields higher and lend […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Looking at the major US stock market indexes technically The major US stock market indexes made good on Key reversals last week, moving through the near near term resistance. The pause to refresh Friday was on the cards, and a couple of days rest works to […]
Forex Morning Briefing $DXY, $EUR, $GBP, $JPY Commentary: Pressure on the Buck. PE US Dollar (.DXY) Index at 92.43 testing to the 13-Day MA at 92.45, it may see some support. If it dips below 92.4-92.3, it could test the 21-Day MA at 91.6 and then move up or down from there. EUR (Euro) at 1.1962 is trading […]
Forex Morning Briefing $DXY, $EUR, $GBP, $JPY Commentary: Pressure on the Buck. PE US Dollar (.DXY) Index -0.4% to 92.70 $EURUSD +0.58% at 1.1921 $GBPUSD -0.18% to 1.3518 $USDCHF -0.21% to 1.0027 $USDJPY -0.27% to 109.41 $USDCNY -0.23% to 6.344 US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.2% in April, less than the 0.3% rise projected. Naturally, there […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Looking at the major US stock market indexes technically Last week we saw break North off of support in the patterns or at the trend-lines. Volume just OK, good breadth on the move. Let’s see if they can hold the moves. DJIA marked a doji Thursday […]
US Economy: Not to Hot, Not to Cold, Just Right The US with steady growth, low unemployment and tame inflation, the nation is experiencing a “Goldilocks” economy: Not too hot. Not too cold. But just right. That from a Top Fed official Friday, who suggested that the unemployment rate could fall further to 3.5% with […]
Some FOMC Voting Members Have Open Minds on Rate Hikes $SPY Two Fed officials who are currently voting members of the FOMC rate-setting body said Friday they were keeping an open mind on the total number of interest rate rises needed this year. San Francisco Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic […]
FOMC Stands Pat on Interest Rates, Focus Now on June Meeting $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The Fed policy makers held interest rates steady Wednesday and expressed confidence that a recent rise in inflation to near the central bank’s 2% target would be sustained, leaving it on track to raise borrowing costs in June. The Fed’s […]
US Consumer Prices Rise, Inflation Ahead $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US consumer prices (PCE) rose March YTD, with a measure of underlying inflation moving to the Fed’s 2% target. Monday, the rise in the annual inflation gauges reported by the Commerce Department was seen by economists and Fed officials, it is not expected to alter the gradual […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX This market cannot make much of strong earnings report. The NAS Comp gaped up over 115 points, gave it back. Fairly goo Bullish stock index patterns remain but upside is used to sell aka distribution. Good patterns in lots of stocks and sectors are failing to provide […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Earnings season is in full swing now, and ramps up with FAANG’s GOOG (23 April atm), AMZN (26 April atm). Many others are scheduled to report too, The Bulls are looking for these leadership stocks to trigger a new leg North. There are lots of […]
Fed Policymakers Say “Not to worry” No Recession Ahead As the gap between Short and Long-term borrowing costs hovers near its lowest in 10+years, speculation has risen over whether the yield curve is signaling that a recession is around the corner. Not to worry, 2 Federal Reserve policymakers said Friday Growth prospects look strong, which […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Earnings season begins in earnest last Friday and is in full swing now. And, President Trump did not telegraph his move on the surgical attack on Syria, so the market was not effected. Later, after the strike was finished, the Pentagon said it hit all […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Earnings season begins in earnest this week. The bar is set high, and participants are hoping they do not disappoint, and since stocks have come off about 8% in value ahead of earnings there is a clear path o higher prices if earnings are solid […]
Healthy Economy, Strong Earnings Will Drive Stock Market North $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ Soon the stock market will reflect the economy, and all systems are on Go. March Private Sector Jobs, Non-Manufacturing Activity and Help Wanted OnLine ADP: 241,000; Goods: 65,000/ ISM (Non-Man.): -0.7 point; Orders: -5.3 points/ HWOL: up 102,100 The Institute for Supply Management’s […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Last Thursday, the Month/Quarter ended higher ahead of a 4 day Holiday Weekend, so the Big Q is does new money enter and help extend Thursday’s move, and do gains hold. And let’s not forget the volatility, will it calm. Remember, a market rally has to […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Global stock market look soft this week. Between the media trade banter, Month/Quarter end re-balancing and the Easter holiday-shortened week things can happen, even nothing much, as many Wall Street traders are on Spring vacation. Expect quiet on the G-10, and data fronts given the […]
Fed Hikes, Stocks Fall, Gold Rises $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $GLD Stocks swung sharply Wednesday afternoon following the release of the FOMC’s policy directive, which increased the fed funds target range by 25 bpts to 1.50%-1.75%. Overall the hike was priced in ahead of the Fed’s expected move. The S&P 500, the NAS Comp, and the […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Another big economic data week ahead. The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and is expected to raise rates 25 bpts at the meeting. The other big econo news will be Existing Home Sales, Leading Economic Indicators, Durable Goods Orders, and New Home Sales. And in […]
Key US Econ Data: Inflation Tame, Job Growth Strong $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Even with strong job gains and optimistic small business owners, inflation still at reasonable marks February Consumer Prices, Real Earnings and Small Business Optimism CPI: +0.2%; Over-Year: +2.2%; Less Food and Energy: +0.2%; Over-Year: +1.8%/ Hourly Earnings (Monthly): 0%; Over-Year: +0.4%/ NFIB: […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The leadership is leading the big moves on the indices with some to new highs, others attacking the near term resistance on the way to highs. Explore the laggards with good patterns, they are getting the time they need to complete patterns and join the […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX This is a Big data week, beginning with ISM Services Monday followed by US jobs data Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Last Friday bounce was on some Short covering and strong buy orders, it may continue the move up to start this week. The market sold […]
FOMC Eyeing Inflation, ‘Strike a Balance’ with Rate Hikes Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, pledging to “strike a balance” between the risk of an overheating economy and the need to keep growth on track, told US lawmakers Tuesday that the central bank would stick with gradual interest rate increases despite the added stimulus of tax cuts […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX I hit my marks again last week on the clear break North. Friday’s light volume action may be countered or at test Monday, that is not a bad thing. There is an old trader’s adage: Buy Monday, sell on Friday has truth to it. Often […]
‘Things Continue to Look Up’ for US Economy $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The Fed is carefully raising interest rates against a growing economic background that has cheered up conditions for the nation’s lenders, said Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic. After years of emergency-era monetary policy, Fed officials are “in an increasing-rate environment, […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The US stock market was closed Monday for Washington’s Birthday, aka President’s Day The rest of the world sans China was open, we will know early how they fared and what to look for at the Bell in the US. On the Fibo retrace North […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The Big Q: Where does the Fed stand in this volatile stock market? The Big A: For the past 9 years the Fed has stood behind this rallying US stock market. Every serious dip was met with the Fed waffling on is plans to remove […]
Monetary Policy is the Engine-of-Inflation $DIA, $GLD, $SLV Just 2 Friday’s ago, on January 26th The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) made its latest BEV Zero, new all-time high. Then 9 trading days later on Thursday February 8th it broke below its BEV -10% line in a dramatic fashion. The BEV plot seen below begins at […]
Wall Street’s Reaction Muted on Fed Rate Hold $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US stocks finished a bit higher Wednesday (DJIA +0.28%) after the Fed said it sees inflation rising this year, indicating it could boost interest rates in March. The Fed kept rates unchanged but, in a statement following its 2-day FOMC policy meeting, it […]
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged The Fed decided to leave rates unchanged, as expected, and noted that near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but policymakers are keeping an eye on inflation, which has been slow to pick up despite a tightening of the labor market. Fed officials expect that, with further gradual adjustments […]
US Stocks Post Record Highs, as Trump Rally Extends $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX All 4 major US stock market indices finished at new all-time highs The S&P 500 Index surged past the 2,700-mark Wednesday and other major indexes hit record intra-day highs as technology stocks climbed on indications of strong economic growth in the US […]
FOMC Sees Future Interest Rate Hikes Guided by Inflation December FOMC Minutes suggest more rate hikes coming Fed policymakers showed worry over the fate of currently low inflation and saw recent tax changes as providing a boost to consumer spending, according to the minutes of the FOMC’s last policy meeting on 12-13 December released Wednesday. […]
US Economist Sees Strong Growth in 2018 $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX A top-ranked US economist last year predicted that real US economic growth would reach 3% in Y 2017. “With a tax cut package finally passed by Congress, growth is likely to remain robust as we head into 2018,” Steven Stanley said. “The economy’s 2% […]
US Stock Market: Growing, Growing, Growing… $DIA, $GLD, $SLV Last week the Dow Jones (DJIA) closed at new all-time highs for each trading session, with Friday’s being the 70th (options expiry) all-time high since last November’s Presidential election. And this week 1 of 3 session up so far for 71. That is 71 of the 240 […]
The Market Update for September $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $GLD, $SLV The Dow Jones (NYSEArca:DIA) made 7 new BEV Zeros (new all-time highs) in the past 3 weeks; it cannot make a decent correction if it continues doing that. And that’s one thing this market needs to do – make a decent correction. The Dow Jones […]
Fed Must See Higher Prices Before Another Rate Hike $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The Federal Reserve should wait until there are clear signs that American paychecks and prices are rising before raising interest rates again, a Fed bank president and FOMC voter, said Monday, warning that moving too fast would be a policy “misstep.” Chicago […]
US Household Wealth Up $1.7-T, Another Record Under President Trump $SPY The wealth of US households rose to $96.2-T in Q-2 of this year, as US stock prices hit record highs and home values continued to climb, a report by the Fed showed Thursday. That compares to a downwardly revised $94.5-T tally for household net […]
FOMC Schedules Asset “Normalization” as Expected Federal Reserve officials set an October start for shrinking their $4.5-T of assets, moving to unwind a pillar of their crisis-era support for the economy. FOMC forecasts 1 more interest-rate hike later this year, saying storm damage will have a temporary impact on the economy. “Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and […]
US Stock Indexes Mark New Record Highs, Financials Lead $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The major US stock market indexes are trading at record marks driven by gains in financial, technology and industrial stocks, with focus on the FOMC’s policy meet Tuesday and Wednesday, as The Trump Rally extends. Shares of the major banks, including Bank […]
US President Trump Poised to Change Fed Leadership + $GLD,$SLV, $PPLT, $USD Every US President gets the chance to influence Fed policy through nominations to the central bank’s Board of Governors. But, most often, that chance is limited to a small number of nominations, 3 max, including a nomination for Chairperson. But President Trump is […]
This Week’s FOMC Meet May Trigger Stock Rotation $SPY US stock investors could rotate out of high-yielding sectors and into stocks of banks, which would benefit from the next leg up in interest rates, after the FOMC’s policy-setting meeting wraps up Wednesday. If the FOMC gives a nod to rising inflation or focuses its trimmed-down […]
Gold Price Pressured by Notions of Fed, ECB Tightening $GLD, $SLV Gold fell Friday after a European Central Bank official called for scaling back the bank’s stimulus program, although losses were capped when weaker than expected US economic data raised some questions about further rate hikes. ECB board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger made the most explicit […]
US Job Openings (JOLTS)Hit Record High, Qualified Workers Scarce $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The Trump Rally extends, US stocks mark record high, again, led by financials, Apple sags. US job openings aka JOLTS, rose to a record high in July, suggesting a slowdown in job growth in August was an aberration and that the labor market […]
It is Too Soon to Predict When Fed Will Raise Rates Again $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Given the “cross currents” in the economy and markets, it is too early to predict when Fed should raise interest rates, William Dudley, President of Federal Reserve Bank of New York said last Friday. “It’s too soon to judge […]
US Consumer Spending Up, Inflation Down, USD Falling $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US consumer spending rose a bit in July and annual inflation increased at its slowest pace since late Y 2015, diminishing expectations of a Fed interest rate hike in December. Inflation remains low even as the labor market is near full employment, a […]
FOMC Split in July Over US Inflation Concerns In the minutes, the FOMC gave off the impression that inflation may take longer to pick up than originally thought. FOMC members were worried last month about inflation, but for 2 opposing reasons. One group of Fed policymakers felt inflation was falling too low and argued for […]
Overnight World Market News $DIA, $DAX, $DJSH, $N300, $NSEI Overnight , Asian equities followed US and European equities North on signs that a military conflict between the US and North Korea is not imminent . According to the North Korean news agency, NKorean leader Kim Jong Un is reviewing missile strike plans and said that he […]
The DJIA Has Been Moving from 1 New All-time High to Another $DIA, $GLD, $VXX The last article I sent out was on the weekend of July 15, and since then the DJIA has seen 10 new all-time highs. In fact, since July 11 the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased from 21,409.07 to 22,092.81 […]
Weakening USD is Positive for Gold & Silver $GLD, $USD, $SLV The US Dollar (.DXY) Index has been moving lower, retreating 9% in 5 months, from 102 in March to its current 93.39. Not surprisingly, Gold has risen almost 10% in USD terms during this frame. Earlier this year many participant expected USD to continue its […]
FOMC “Reducing Debt Holdings to Start ‘Relatively’ Soon” Fed officials said they would begin running off their $4.5-T balance sheet “relatively soon” and left their benchmark policy rate unchanged as they assess progress toward their inflation goal. The start of balance-sheet normalization is another policy Milestone in an economic recovery now in its 9th year. […]
Fed Chairwoman Gets Investors Attention Again $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The focus Thursday was Fed Chairwoman Yellen’s testimony before the US Congress as the market posted another record close. Wednesday’s testimony confirmed this year’s next rate hike/s and QE policy tightening process that the market expected, but the discussions about the longer-term Neutral rate of […]
Fed’s Plan to Cut Bond Holdings Could Be “Very Disruptive” $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX JPMorgan Chase & Co’s (NYSEJPM) Chairman, Jamie Dimon, said Tuesday that the unwinding of Fed’s bond-buying programs is an unprecedented challenge that may be more disruptive than people think. “We’ve never have had QE like this before, we’ve never had unwinding […]
FOMC Mins Indicate Worry About Loose Policy Risks $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX A divided FOMC did not reach agreement in June on the timing of when to begin shrinking its massive balance sheet, according to minutes of the meeting. “Several preferred to announce a start to the process within a couple of months,” the minutes […]
Morning Briefing Global Stocks $DIA, $DAX, $DJSH, $N300, $NSEI Commentary: Stock indices are mixed. DJIA and DAX are in a downward corrective phase and may continue in here, the Shanghai looks sideways. Nikkei looks Bullish and Nifty could test lower marks this week. PE DJIA at 21349.63, +0.29% tried to recover slightly from the 29 June […]