Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street
Crude Oil is under pressure after the collapsed production of OPEC and non-OPEC meeting in Doha Sunday.
The Canadian Loonie is down hard Vs the Buck, backtracking all of last week’s gain., meaning that WTI Crude Oil opens below 39 bbl (closed at 41.75 Friday) in the US session, it is already trading at 38.56 in Asia as I write this report.
Weaker Crude Oil now means weaker stocks. So, a lower Oil open augurs a lower open for equities Monday in the US. The S&P 50o mini is trading -14.25, at 2060.75, of -0.60%.
If SOX falls hard and the NAS Comp reverses its breakout over resistance, that means the Bulls are fading, and Bears will be growling again, expecting that to happen.
This week earnings season is wide open as over 100 S&P 500 companies (some of the biggest) report.
Last week we saw earnings help boost the indexes past the 2 week consolidation to post YTD highs. But, after the Crude Oil deal disappointment it will take some good earnings to boost the market back up, I am looking for it to roll over and test the 10 February lows.
For this week there is a mix of Northside and Southside plays.
Some sectors are getting money cycled out as others see money cycled in aka rotation.
Overall market direction has been stable inside of a wide trading range, giving trades participants both ways. After the Doha meeting and combined with grim earnings the Southside win at the Key resistance and we can concentrate on trading the Southside of the market.
My work indicates that technical’s point to a break South, but with the Fed pumping out so much cheap money it is not a certainty just yet.
So, watch individual plays that have rounded bottom patterns and pick up positions if warranted.
Be prudent, take what the market gives, the name of this Wall Street game is to make money.
Cash is an asset, and there will always be a trade.
Have a terrific week.