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The Big Q: Will the Massive Dole Help the Democrats in the 2022 Midterm Elections?

#virus #aid #economy #Biden #Trump #elections #VirusCasedemic

“There are lots of ways Y 2022 can become a midterm disaster for Democrats especially when the aid bill’s provisions lead to a bigger spike in inflation and The People cry Foul“– Paul Ebeling

Mr. Biden’s American Rescue Plan is very popular: 70% of adults said they were in favor of the legislation, compared to 28% who opposed the bill, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey. 

Support for the bill crossed party lines with some polls finding over 50% of Republicans saying they either supported or somewhat supported the $1.9-T aid package that includes more than $350-B to bail out Blue state and local governments address budget shortfalls, aka bad behavior.

It should come as no surprise that the bill mainly drew support from Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, but what is a bit more unexpected is the share of lower-income Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who said they favored the legislation. A majority (63%) of lower-income Republicans said they were in favor of the bill in that Pew report. This compares to 37% of Republicans in middle-income households and 25% of upper-income Republicans. Free money crosses party lines every time.

The Big Q: Will the massive dole out help the Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections?

The Big A: At 1st glance, the Pew poll numbers appear to reveal a lifeline for Democrats hoping to avoid losing their Congressional majorities in Y 2022. But, how much stock should be put into Republican support of the legislation, given the inroads the party has made with lower income voters and those without a college degree in recent Presidential elections, not much I believe.

Mr. Biden and Democrats’ seems to be pushing New Dealesque policies and an economic message that aims to resonate with more working and middle-class voters. And according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, the relief package is expected to benefit low and middle-income households the most.

They found households making $91,000 or less would receive 70% of the tax benefits from the plan. This stands in stark contrast to the impact of the Y 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act under former President Trump, where about 50% of the tax cuts went to households in the Top 5%

Mr. Biden will not be campaigning on this legislation. In fact, he hardly addressed it in his 1st presidential speech earlier this month, instead projecting a message of unity to American voters, he spoke to American voters as if they were in Kindergarten. Working in that way the Democrats will not be able to avoid the hammering that the President’s party historically sees in midterm elections.

Mr. Biden’s initial presidential approval rating is currently in the 50% range, suggesting that some voters are not factoring in his handling of the VirusCasedemic when it comes to whether they think he is doing a good job overall, because they know that he is riding the coat tails of President Trump’s Warp Speed action against the attack on the economy. And that is in part what the Republicans will campaign on going into the Y 2022 midterms, it is the winning way.

Making and Keeping America Great Again!

Have a healthy weekend, Keep the Faith!

Paul Ebeling
Paul A. Ebeling, a polymath, excels, in diverse fields of knowledge Including Pattern Recognition Analysis in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange, and he is the author of "The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a highly regarded, weekly financial market commentary. He is a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to over a million cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognize Ebeling as an expert.   

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