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Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street and Beyond

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“More hawkishness from the Fed, high inflation, talk of nucellar war are among the reasons to doubt this US stock market’s V shaped rebound. But again, my work suggest naysayers risk missing out on a run to a record high after the Noise” — Paul Ebeling

Stocks: Little change in the benchmark indexes

Dow -39.54 at 34411.69, Nasdaq -18.72 at 13332.35, S&P -0.90 at 4391.68

The S&P 500 (unch) closed little changed Monday in a session that lacked conviction. The Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.1%) both declined 0.1% while the small-cap Russell 2000 fell 0.7%. 

Buying interest was restrained by the upwards pressure in interest rates and Crude Oil prices ($108.18, +1.24, +1.2%), technical resistance near the underside of the S&P 500’s 50-Day MA (4417), and lingering growth concerns attributed to the Fed, China’s COVID restrictions, and the Ukraine-Russia situation. 

The defensive-oriented S&P 500 healthcare (-1.1%), consumer staples (-0.8%), utilities (-0.5%), and real estate (-0.3%) sectors were laggards. Conversely, the energy sector (+1.5%) unsurprisingly outperformed given the higher Crude Oil prices. 

The financials (+0.6%) and information technology (+0.3%) sectors provided Key support with the latter benefiting from dip-buying activity in the semiconductor stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.9%. 

There is a wait-and-see mindset for the diversified batch of Q-1 earnings reports this wk. Monday, the market heard from more banks.

Looking ahead, investors will receive Housing Starts and Building Permits for March on Tuesday.

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average -5.3% YTD
  • S&P 500 -7.9% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -11.4% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite -14.8% YTD

On the Crypto Front

Crypto verse: Gold coins shine in the global gloom

Stablecoins, a fast-growing breed of crypto, have emerged as a common medium of exchange, often used by traders seeking to move funds around. It is easier to swap major stablecoins for bitcoin or other crypto, for example, than it is to swap traditional money like USDs for bitcoin.

Coins backed by gold are newer variants of “stablecoins”, which are typically pegged to the dollar to tame volatility. The largest, Pax Gold or PAXG, is up 7.4% in Y 2022, while main rival Tether Gold has risen 8.5%. Gold-backed stablecoins bolstered the credibility of cryptocurrencies.

By contrast, bitcoin has lost over 13% and ether is down 20%.

The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) exchange-traded fund, which is managed by State Street Global Advisors, is up 7.6% in Y 2022.

Have a prosperous week, Keep the Faith!

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Paul A. Ebeling, a polymath, excels, in diverse fields of knowledge Including Pattern Recognition Analysis in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange, and he is the author of "The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a highly regarded, weekly financial market commentary. He is a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to over a million cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognize Ebeling as an expert.