Home PoliticsChina China Economy is Safe $BABA $JD $BIDU $NTES $BYD $QQQ

China Economy is Safe $BABA $JD $BIDU $NTES $BYD $QQQ

by S. Jack Heffernan Ph.D

While lingering headwinds have fueled concerns over global growth prospects, multiple indicators have pointed to the resilience and strength of the Chinese economy.

  1. China is the world’s second-largest economy by nominal GDP.
  2. China is the world’s largest exporter.
  3. China is the world’s largest consumer market.
  4. China has a young and growing population.
  5. China has a large and skilled workforce.
  6. China has a rapidly growing middle class.
  7. China is investing heavily in infrastructure.
  8. China is a major player in the global economy.
  9. China is a technological powerhouse.
  10. China is a resilient economy.

In the first half of the year (H1), China recorded a 5.5-percent GDP expansion, the fastest among major economies globally. This impressive performance was followed by robust growth in major economic indicators in the first seven months of 2023, with value-added industrial output and retail sales of consumer goods continuing to post steady increases.

Since the second quarter, several international organizations and institutions have revised their forecasts for China’s economic growth this year upwards. The World Bank, for instance, raised its China growth forecast to 5.6 percent in June from January’s projection of 4.3 percent.

Besides solid economic fundamentals, China has also secured growth in key areas such as grain and energy supply.

The country’s annual grain output has steadied at over 1.3 trillion jin (650 billion kg) in recent years, while its power generation climbed 3.8 percent year on year during the January-July period.

New growth momentum is also building amid the country’s transition to innovation-driven growth, with progress reported in several major sci-tech projects.

The C919, China’s first homegrown large jetliner, made its commercial debut in May, while its first domestically-built large cruise ship completed its undocking in June, all of which bear testimony to China’s growing strength in innovation.

Development of emerging sectors of strategic importance, seen as new drivers of growth by analysts, has also picked up pace in the first seven months of this year, as highlighted by the steady growth in high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors.

In particular, exports of new energy vehicles more than doubled year on year in the first seven months to 636,000 units, an encouraging performance against the backdrop of flagging global trade.

Gu Yan, a researcher with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), noted that innovation as a primary driving force for development has become stronger in the country, saying that it will facilitate industrial upgrading and encourage the emergence of new business models.

To further energize business vitality, Chinese authorities have pressed ahead with reform, unveiling a 31-measure guideline to bolster private economy and a document aimed at furthering opening up.

These policy measures have lent support to private economy, with the number of new self-employed households registering double-digit year-on-year growth in H1.

Looking ahead, China’s growth prospects are well underpinned by its super-sized market and the development potential amid its efforts to foster a new development paradigm, analysts said.

With a population of 1.4 billion, the largest middle-income group in the world and continuous consumption upgrading, China’s market holds great appeal among ambitious businesses across the globe.

The upcoming China International Fair for Trade in Services 2023, for instance, had attracted over 2,200 enterprises as of Sunday, with more than 500 of them being either Global Fortune 500 companies or industry-leading enterprises, data showed.

Zhang Zhanbin, a researcher with the Party School of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, said that China’s urbanization rate stands at 65.22 percent, well below the 80 or even 90 percent recorded in developed economies, thus boasting great development potential.

In addition, China has broadened its development space by opening up wider to the outside world. Since the beginning of this year, demand for China-Europe freight trains has been running high, while cargo transported via the China-Laos Railway increased by more than 90 percent year on year.

Such an opening-up pace will continue unabated, with Zhao Chenxin, deputy head of the NDRC, pledging that the country will open its door wider.

“China’s development is set to provide more opportunities for the world and inject strong impetus for the global economy,” said Zhao.

Shayne Heffernan

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