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Friday, September 17, 2021

America is Getting Back to Normal

#America #NFPs #jobs #economy #aid/relief/stimulus

Someone has got to explain to me why we have to spend $1.9-T when we already have about $1-T that has not been spent from the last bill.” –Paul Ebeling

Hailing Friday’s jobs report as a “blowout,” President Trump’s economic adviser Stephen Moore called the economy a “rocket ship” ready for a Spring takeoff.

Sunday Mr. Moore said, “I think the rest of the year for the economy is really looking strong as we open up our businesses, our schools, our stores, our churches.

Adding “America is getting back, short term, I am optimistic.”

He warned about excessive spending on oncoming inflation after the Senate passed another $1.9-T under the guise of VirusCasedemic relief Saturday.

I do not like this $1.9-T spending bill; I do not think it’s necessary,” Mr. Moore added. “I think most of the spending is wasteful and not related to COVID. That notwithstanding, I think the economy is prepared for a nice, nice recovery this Summer.”

If the blue states would reopen after vaccines are rolled out and the infection rates are in check.

We are flushing the economy with cheap money; we are flushing the economy with trillions of dollars of debt,” Mr. Moore cautioned. “At some point that has to lead to an increase in prices.”

The largest blue states are pivotal to the US economy, but their Democrat governors are slow to unleash their economic potential. 

Once we get New York and California and Illinois and New Jersey to open up, I think we are going to see really nice growth.

“Yes, as our vaccine program expands, the economy will start to rebound but will it have the strength of the first two years of the prior Administration?  In my opinion, the answer is a BIG No, because then there was permanent consumer demand and real economic monetary expansion.

Unlike today, employment was also wide spread at all levels, including those of lower income. Right now there is too much dependence on not well thought out short-term, pork-barreled Federal stimuli which are singular in nature and  in my opinion, is the band-aid approach.

Adding to our volcanic problems is a developing, very loose, non-gated immigrant program which will prove very harmful to lower income families who today are living on shoe-strings.

Over-shadowing the vision of a strengthening economy is our vaccination program which is allowing interim consumer demand to arise but the real question is how long can it last.

Yes, restaurants will be re-opened and curbside retailers will see a positive impact on our economy for people want to relieve the boredom of eating in but will they sustain some of the more conservative spending habits incurred during the pandemic such as the buying of lower priced foods?  

“At the same time, unreported inflation will continue to flourish in basic consumer needs – gasoline price increases and food products. Unknown to most people these consumer areas are running at twice the current inflation rate.

The other question will those consumer prices which were dramatically increased during the pandemic, such as restaurant eating, be rolled back. I doubt it! Yes, people will want to eat out, but will it be as often pre-pandemic or at the most expensive restaurants?

“More taxing is not the answer either for that is saving and investing element of our population.  Will there be more prudent and better management at the Federal level? I doubt it especially when that is being used to get votes

However, based on the current give-aw – they hope and wish. Personally, more National debt for our children’s generations to come is also not fiscally prudent either. However, this is the current embedded attitude at the White House and our partisan Congress. 

So, the 64 dollar question that no one wants to answer – when is our government going to return to fiscally management disciplines. Perhaps, that will be after the next mid-term elections if the American voter wakes up to the fact that the United States is headed towards a major currency devaluation, real pain filled inflation and potentially, a factual replacement of our currency as the leader of the World by a digital one under the control, not by our Treasury either?

“We need to restore that which our forefathers so desperately fought for – the prudent hope in America and the land of opportunity for generations to come!” 
says LTN economist Bruce WD Barren.

Have a healthy week, Keep the Faith!

Paul Ebeling
Paul A. Ebeling, a polymath, excels, in diverse fields of knowledge Including Pattern Recognition Analysis in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange, and he is the author of "The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a highly regarded, weekly financial market commentary. He is a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to over a million cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognize Ebeling as an expert.   

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