Home AI Wall Street’s 2024 Outlook for Stocks

Stock markets rose last week, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.8% to close at 4,594.63. The index is now up 19.7% year-to-date, 28.4% from its October 12, 2022 closing low of 3,577.03, and down 4.2% from its January 3, 2022 record closing high of 4,796.56.

As the year draws to a close, Wall Street’s top strategists are sharing their insights on where they see the stock market heading in 2024. Typically, the average forecast for the group predicts the S&P 500 climbing by about 10%, in line with historical averages.

This year, however, strategists are offering a wide range of views, with targets ranging from 4,200 to 5,500. This implies potential returns between -8.5% and +19.7% from Friday’s close.

Key Factors Driving Market Outlook

  1. Economic Growth: Economists have varying views on whether the U.S. economy will enter a recession in 2024. Those expecting continued expansion forecast modest growth, while those anticipating a recession believe it will be brief and mild.
  2. Earnings Growth: Most strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to grow in 2024 despite lackluster GDP growth forecasts. This may be due to expectations of a shift in consumer spending from services to goods and the S&P’s greater exposure to the goods sector.
  3. Profit Margins: Many strategists expect profit margins to remain high, supported by improved operating efficiencies. However, rising interest rates could pose a headwind for earnings growth.
  4. Monetary Policy: Strategists agree that the worst of the inflation crisis is behind us. This suggests that the Federal Reserve may have room to loosen financial conditions with interest rate cuts if economic conditions deteriorate significantly.
  5. Valuations: Strategists are divided on whether valuations are reasonable or slightly high. The debate is unlikely to go away soon, as valuations have historically provided little insight into short-term market moves.

Strategists’ 2024 S&P 500 Price Targets

Below is a summary of 12 analysts’ S&P 500 price targets for 2024, along with highlights from their commentary:

FirmTargetEPS EstimateCommentary
JPMorgan4,200$225Sees modest economic growth, eroding excess savings, and tightening credit as headwinds for earnings growth.
Morgan Stanley4,500$229Expects a recovery in earnings growth next year.
UBS4,600$228Anticipates a mild recession in the middle of the year and a credit market sell-off in Q2.
Wells Fargo4,625$235Expects a volatile and ultimately flattish SPX in 2024.
Goldman Sachs4,700$237Sees modest economic growth, 5% earnings growth, and a valuation of 18x.
Societe Generale4,750$230Expects a roller coaster year with a mild recession in the middle of the year.
Barclays4,800$233Expects single-digit returns as easing inflation is offset by modest economic deceleration.
Bank of America5,000$235Sees further gains in 2024 as the market has absorbed significant geopolitical shocks.
RBC5,000$232Remains constructive on the U.S. equity market despite a sluggish economy and election uncertainty.
Deutsche Bank5,100$250Believes valuations are not high and expects earnings growth to continue.
BMO5,100$250Expects a year of positive returns with more sanguine, broadly distributed performance.
Knightsbridge5,200Sees potential for further gains driven by enthusiasm for AI technology.


While most strategists produce high-quality research, their one-year price targets should not be taken as definitive

Shayne Heffernan

You may also like


Your Trusted Source for Capital Markets & Related News

© 2024 LiveTradingNews.com – For The Traders, By The Traders – All Right Reserved.

The information contained on this website shall not be construed as (i) an offer to purchase or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell, any securities or services, (ii) investment, legal, business or tax advice or an offer to provide such advice, or (iii) a basis for making any investment decision. An offering may only be made upon a qualified investor’s receipt not via this website of formal materials from the Knightsbridge an offering memorandum and subscription documentation (“offering materials”). In the case of any inconsistency between the information on this website and any such offering materials, the offering materials shall control. Securities shall not be offered or sold in any jurisdiction in which such offer or sale would be unlawful unless the requirements of the applicable laws of such jurisdiction have been satisfied. Any decision to invest in securities must be based solely upon the information set forth in the applicable offering materials, which should be read carefully by qualified investors prior to investing. An investment with Knightsbridge is not suitable or desirable for all investors; investors may lose all or a portion of the capital invested. Investors may be required to bear the financial risks of an investment for an indefinite period of time. Qualified investors are urged to consult with their own legal, financial and tax advisors before making any investment. Knightsbridge is a private investment firm that offers investment services to Qualified Investors, Members and Institutions ONLY. Qualified Investors are defined as individuals who have met those Qualifications in the relevant jurisdictions. Members are defined as individuals who have been accepted into the Knightsbridge membership program. Institutions are defined as entities such as banks, pension funds, and hedge funds. If you are not a Qualified Investor, Member or Institution, you are not eligible to invest with Knightsbridge. All investments involve risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. You may lose some or all of your investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Knightsbridge is not a registered investment advisor, and this disclaimer should not be construed as investment advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. By accessing this website, you agree to the terms of this disclaimer. Thank you for your interest in Knightsbridge.