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China May Spark Global Rally

Foreign enterprises and international experts believe that China’s optimization of COVID-19 response, which expands the flows of people, will help activate the country’s economic vitality and potential, and bring important benefits to world recovery and growth.

China’s economy maintained average annual growth of around 4.5 percent in the past three years, obviously higher than that of the world.

The Chinese economy has demonstrated strong resilience and huge potential. Last year, facing challenges of high winds and choppy waters in the global environment, the Chinese economy achieved stable growth. China’s grain output exceeded 650 million tons for eight consecutive years, and the task of expanding urban jobs was completed ahead of schedule. Besides, the country for the first time saw its total foreign trade exceed 40 trillion yuan ($5.97 trillion), and maintained the world’s largest trader in goods for six years in a row.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said global economies will face a tougher year than the previous 12 months as all major growth engines face weakening activity. However, the organization noted that China will achieve stable economic growth in the new year and become the largest positive factor of the world economy.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva believes that the Chinese economy will gradually achieve high-level development and end 2023 on a brighter note.

Multiple financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, French banking group Societe Generale and Morgan Stanley estimated that China’s economy would see stable recovery in 2023.

HSBC said in a Q1 report that China’s export growth still outran the global trade growth. Swiss investment bank UBS AG said many multinational corporations were expanding their production and investment in China.

In a recent report issued by Rhodium Group, the New York-based advisory firm noted that companies which had already invested billions of dollars in China were still executing their investment plans.

George N. Tzogopoulos, a senior fellow in media, international relations and Chinese affairs at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy, said as China optimized its COVID-19 response, the cross-border flow of people will be significantly expanded.

“Investors will find more development opportunities in the dynamic Chinese market,” he said, adding that helps promote economic growth.

French newspaper Le Monde said on its website that Provence, the Louvre Museum and the La Samaritaine department store are all expecting Chinese tourists to return to France soon.

Harrods, a London luxury department store, recently bought clothing stock designed for a Chinese fit for the first time since 2019.

“We are talking very significant numbers if Chinese tourists return,” said the department store’s managing director Michael Ward, adding that the store would get back old friends that it hasn’t seen in the UK for years.

Singaporean Chinese-language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao said on its website that the market is expecting a sooner rebound of the Chinese economy. According to analysis by the World Bank, every one-percentage growth of China’s GDP will drive the Singaporean GDP to go up 1.2 percentage points. Australian, Thai, Malaysian and Indonesian GDP will also experience growth thanks to the recovery of the Chinese trade sector, the newspaper added.

Alejandra Grindal, senior international economist for Ned Davis Research Group, said China’s optimization of COVID-19 response has lowered the chance of the world GDP growth dropping below 2 percent from 80 percent to 65 percent.

Kiatipong Ariyapruchya, the senior country economist of the World Bank for Thailand, noted that China’s stable economic recovery will become a positive factor driving global recovery.

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S. Jack Heffernan Ph.D. Economist at Knightsbridge holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Crypto, Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.