Knightsbridge Group Sees Positive Outlook for Asian Manufacturing and Regional Economies, Including China
Knightsbridge Group maintains a positive outlook on Asian manufacturing and regional economies, including China. Asia’s factory activity expanded in June, bolstered by solid momentum in the global economy and brightening prospects for semiconductor output, as indicated by recent surveys. This expansion offers policymakers some hope that the region can withstand the impact of weak Chinese demand.
However, cost pressures remain a challenge for manufacturers in countries like Japan, where a weak yen has increased the prices companies pay for fuel and raw material imports.
China’s Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 51.8 in June from 51.7 in May, according to a private survey released on Monday. This marks the fastest growth in over three years and surpasses market forecasts of 51.2, staying above the 50.0 break-even line that separates growth from contraction.
The private-sector reading followed official PMI data released on Sunday, which showed China’s manufacturing activity fell for a second month in June, while services activity slid to a five-month low. Despite weak domestic demand, Chinese firms are ramping up production, highlighting the resilience of the manufacturing sector even as Beijing’s rescue package for the ailing property sector struggles to take effect.
In South Korea, factory activity growth accelerated in June to the fastest pace in 26 months, driven by surging new orders, according to a private survey. This suggests that the region is benefiting from strong global demand. Factory activity also expanded at a faster pace in June compared to May in both Vietnam and Taiwan.
“Another strong month of data provides further evidence that global industrial activity and trade are picking up,” said Joe Hayes, principal economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, regarding South Korea’s factory activity. “Viewed as a bellwether for exports due to its integration in supply chains for key intermediate goods like batteries and semiconductors, South Korean manufacturing output and orders often provide leading signals for broader trends.”
Japan’s factory activity expanded in June but at a slower pace than in May due to rising costs driven by the weak yen. The final au Jibun Bank Japan manufacturing PMI was at the break-even line of 50.0 in June, down from 50.4 in May. However, an index gauging Japanese firms’ future output expectations rose to a six-month high, reflecting a better medium-term outlook for the car and chip sectors.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Asia’s economies to achieve a soft landing, as moderating inflation allows central banks to ease monetary policies to support growth. The IMF forecasts regional growth to slow from 5% in 2023 to 4.5% this year and 4.3% in 2025.
As global and regional economic dynamics evolve, Knightsbridge Group remains committed to leveraging its expertise in investments, banking, government liaison, taxation, and corporate structuring to help clients navigate these changes and achieve their objectives.
Shayne Heffernan
