Opposing swings in the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones Industrial Average drove mixed results for US stocks ending Tuesday’s trading session. Rebouncing from a three-day losing run, the AI chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) surged around 7%, greatly impacting the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC).
The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained around 0.4%; the Nasdaq Composite rose over 1.3%. After a solid start to the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was the only significant index to close in the negative, sliding 0.8% or around 300 points.
Nvidia’s Effect on the Market
Due to Nvidia’s past drop, which weakened the tech boom driving gains all year, Monday’s Nasdaq and S&P 500 showed large decreases. As the quarter ends, this caused investors to profit from AI-linked equities to wonder whether recent losses would persist.
Expectations regarding PCE Index Update
Friday’s announcement on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, a fundamental inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, is now much anticipated by investors. On Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman said she would be ready to raise interest rates should keeping them uneffective in terms of controlling price pressure.
Economic Data Notes
Regarding economic data, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller report showed that although yearly growth slowed in April compared to the month before, home values established a new record high in that month. Furthermore, the most recent Conference Board consumer confidence report revealed indications of declining resilience; the indicator dropped to 100 in June from 101.3 in May, in line with economists’ forecasts.
Forward Returns and Market Breadth
The possible risk should major worry the market as big tech companies, who have driven most of the gains, stop surprising us. With his analysis, Morgan Stanley’s chief investment officer, Mike Wilson, gave some comfort, nevertheless.
Wilson’s results revealed that, on a rolling one-month basis, about 20% of the top 500 stocks are outperforming the larger index; this lowest percentage in his dataset since 1965. Notwithstanding this limited market range, historical data indicates that the S&P 500 usually increases by almost 4% over the next six months after comparable readings.
“Narrow breadth can persist but it’s not exactly a headwind to forward returns in and of itself,” Wilson said. “We think for now broadening is probably limited to high-quality/large-cap pockets.”
Effect of Strong Interest Rates
Wilson also pointed out that high interest rates have driven investors toward large-market-cap equities, which have proven resiliency and higher earnings growth than smaller companies. Several Wall Street companies changing their year-end projections for the S&P 500 have mirrored this trend, pointing tech outperformance as a main cause of the index’s better-than-expected performance this year.
While the market negotiates these dynamics, the focus stays on the performance of important tech stocks and forthcoming economic data, which will probably influence investor mood and market swings in the next months.
Shayne Heffernan
