Thai Baht Outlook
March headline CPI +2.83 y/y vs +3.30% in poll
March core CPI +1.75% y/y vs +1.82% in poll
Inflation seen below 2.5% in Q2 - ministry
Cuts 2023 headline inflation forecast to 1.7-2.7% from 2-3%
Last week, the central bank raised its policy rate for a fifth straight meeting and said its policy tightening would continue since, while inflation was slowing, it remained higher than in the past.
The central bank has hiked the benchmark interest rate by a total of 125 basis points since August to 1.75% to contain price pressures.
The commerce ministry forecast headline inflation would fall further later this year, helped by lower oil prices, government support measures and a high base last year, senior ministry official Wichanun Niwatjinda told a news conference.
Most emerging market currencies are forecast to drift higher over the coming year as investors fret less about financial stability and snap up riskier assets, according to a Reuters poll of analysts who largely upgraded forecasts from last month.
While most of the currencies are seen gaining over the next 12 months, the March 31-April 4 poll of 60 foreign exchange analysts predicted volatility in the near term, and that only South Korea's won and the Thai baht would recoup 2022 losses.
Emerging market (EM) assets have benefited from their exposure to commodities, which have held strong against a weaker U.S. dollar after the Federal Reserve signalled last month it was close to pausing an historically aggressive tightening cycle.
Momentum Indicators
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
Stochastic Oscillator
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 19.4968. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 40.13. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 25 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -195.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn't generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
MACD
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 18 period(s) ago.
United States vs China: AI Models, Compute, Quantum and Electricity
The United States still leads in frontier model capability, total AI compute and quantum error correction, while China has narrowed the gaps in model performance, open-weight adoption and domestic chip volumes, and holds a structural advantage in power for data centres. Shayne Heffernan sets out the developments from July to October 2026 across models, compute, quantum and electricity, and how fast China is catching up.
The 2030 Compute Landscape: GPUs, Power and the Architecture of Intelligence
The constraint on AI is no longer ideas or data but compute and the power to run it. Frontier training compute has grown about five times a year since 2020, and the leading AI supercomputer of June 2030 is on course for about 2 million chips and 9 gigawatts. Shayne Heffernan sets out the 2030 arithmetic, the power problem, who has already contracted the gigawatts, and how GPUs, custom ASICs, wafer-scale engines and quantum machines divide the work.
KXCO AI Ontology at 3 Months: What It Called and What Comes Next
On 19 July 2026 the Round Table's AI room published its first Analyst Outlook. To the 16 October 2026 close its 13 names rose 2.6% on an equal weight against 2.1% for QQQ, per StockAnalysis closes, and the six it opened with 35% or more of upside rose 8.6%. This piece lists the six names up more than 5%, the ten names I rate as opportunities now, the month's results in AI and quantum computing, and the official data showing that four in five firms have not yet started using AI.
SpaceX: The Road to 10 Gigawatts
SpaceX did not add an AI business. A company whose processes run on compute built its own computing plant, then built the power to run it. The 10-Q reports 1.4 gigawatts of nameplate compute at 30 June 2026, four leases worth about $41 billion a year and $100 billion of cash. The target is closer to 10 gigawatts than 5 by the end of 2027. This piece sets out the build sequence, the four layers of power in Memphis, and why Terafab is the act after 2027, not the road to it.
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