Wall Street Knows the Fed Has its Back

Wall Street Knows the Fed Has its Back

#Fed #WallStreet #liquidity #money $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX “The Fed is absolutely supportive, Chairman Powell stresses it has got the market’s back, they are there” — Paul Ebeling Given the choice between a broad package of economic aid/relief/stimulus and targeted Fed liquidity support, Wall Street prefers liquidity, due to its benefits for asset prices. […]

Fed Stays the “Whatever it Takes” Course

Fed Stays the “Whatever it Takes” Course

#Fed #interestrates #stimulus #economy #virus $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX The Fed kept its dovish monetary policy intact Thursday and pledged again to do whatever it takes in coming months to sustain a US economic recovery threatened by a spreading virus chaos. The policy statement released after the US central bank’s latest two-day meeting did not mention […]

Home Loans Spike with the Strong Economic Recovery

Home Loans Spike with the Strong Economic Recovery

#Home #loans #economic #recovery #Covid19 “Home loans to reach $3.2-T in 2020, Most in 17 yrs“– Paul Ebeling US home mortgage originations are forecast to total $3.18-T this year, the most since Y 2003, as low rates drive a spike in refinancing and purchases, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Housing activity has soared […]

US Homebuilder Confidence Hits Record High on Low Rates

US Homebuilder Confidence Hits Record High on Low Rates

#Homebuilder #confidence #lowrates $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX US homebuilder confidence advanced in October to an all-time high as record-low interest rates continued to fuel sales and the demand outlook. A gauge of builder sentiment climbed to 85, the highest in records back to Y 1985, from 83 a month earlier, according to the National Association […]

The Most Expensive City to Buy a House is San Francisco

The Most Expensive City to Buy a House is San Francisco

#SanFrancisco #house #buy “A 6-figure income may not be enough to buy a house in San Francisco. California“– Paul Ebeling The most expensive city in the US to buy a house is San Francisco, where homebuyers need a $206,760 income to live comfortably and buy a house. California is the most expensive to own a […]

Inflation is Short of the Fed’s Goal

Inflation is Short of the Fed’s Goal

#Fed #inflation The Fed is determined to drive inflation higher from marks it considers extremely low. For that to happen, 1st it must convince the market and consumers that prices will accelerate going forward. The Key problem is that the measures that bond traders and strategists rely on for longer-run inflation expectations can often give […]

The Market is Saying, “Be not afraid, economic stimulus is coming”

The Market is Saying, “Be not afraid, economic stimulus is coming”

#market #stimlus #PresidentTrump #Fed $DIA $DJIA $SPY $SPX $QQQ $RUTX $USD $DXY “Investors should be preparing for inflation, not this recovering economy.“– Paul Ebeling The US and the been through a profound economic shock with the China ‘Act of War’ virus, but everything every policy-making body in the US is doing is inflationary it is […]

Current Gold Forecast: Gold Over Paper

Current Gold Forecast: Gold Over Paper

#gold $XAU $GLD $USD The Fundamentals Central banks worldwide are committed to suppressing interest rates and printing money to solve their nation’s debt problems. Eventually, they will be forced to default or devalue, they will devalue. The Technicals Gold forms a major bottom every 8-yrs. The last low came in Y 2016. The next one should […]

The Trump Fed’s Policies are Broad and Loose

The Trump Fed’s Policies are Broad and Loose

#PresidentTrump #Fed #money The Fed’s policy is already set on a loose and supportive course, and is unlikely to change much for the next few years. The policymakers have offered different views on how long it will take the US economy to recover from the crisis brought on by The China Virus. Boston Fed President […]

US Housing Market is On Fire, Mortgage Applications Increase as Buying Activity Spikes

US Housing Market is On Fire, Mortgage Applications Increase as Buying Activity Spikes

#housing #market Existing home sales are hitting the highest marks in 14 yrs, so, it is clear the US housing market is on fire. Mortgage demand is rising again despite the highest interest rates in several wks. Mortgage applications increased 6.8% from 1 wk earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications […]

Jobs Report Good, Getting Better, Low Interest Rates to Stay for a Long Time, Do Not Fear September in a Presidential Election Year with the Incumbent Running

Jobs Report Good, Getting Better, Low Interest Rates to Stay for a Long Time, Do Not Fear September in a Presidential Election Year with the Incumbent Running

#PresidentTrump #Powell #Fed #jobs #interest #rates $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VIX $VXX The US financial markets will be closed Monday for Labor Day Friday, Trump Fed Chairman Powell declared the the NFPs employment report for August was “a good one,“and reiterated that the FOMC will keep ultra-accommodative monetary policy (the Fed put) for years to […]

Fed Speak: US Rates to Stay Ultra-Low for a Long Time, Market Likes ‘Cheap Money

Fed Speak: US Rates to Stay Ultra-Low for a Long Time, Market Likes ‘Cheap Money

#Fed #interest #inflation #money #market #investors $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX The Trump Fed announced a significant change Thursday in how it manages interest rates by saying it plans to keep rates near Zero even after inflation has exceeded the Fed’s 2% target level. The change tells us that the Fed is prepared to tolerate […]

The Trump Policies Work, America’s V-Shaped Recovery is Happening Despite Democrats Sandbagging

The Trump Policies Work, America’s V-Shaped Recovery is Happening Despite Democrats Sandbagging

#Trump #recovery #stocks #exports #housing #sandbagging #Democrats #Republicans $DIA $SPY $QQQ The last recession, from Ys 2007 to 2009, was harsh because of of the meltdowns in the financial and housing markets. The S&P 500 dove 56% from peak to trough, and home values declined 27%. That loss of household wealth took years to recover and scared on […]

Making Safe, Investment Grade Bets in Stocks Hammered by the C-19 Coronavirus Chaos

Making Safe, Investment Grade Bets in Stocks Hammered by the C-19 Coronavirus Chaos

#investments #stocks #C19coronavirus #risk #money #cash $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Energy, aviation and lodging firms hit hard by the coronavirus chaos will offer handsome returns for high-yield investors in the months ahead. There are opportunities for discerning money managers and aggressive retail investors. We and other Top money managers see opportunities in stressed and […]

The Trump Team Handled Coronavirus Chaos Magnificently, Market Responded With Record Bull Run

The Trump Team Handled Coronavirus Chaos Magnificently, Market Responded With Record Bull Run

#PresidentTrump #economy #Coronavirus #BullMarket $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX President Trump and his economic team have handled and are handling the economy “magnificently” during the coronavirus chaos, and there is no doubt that a V-shaped recovery is happening The S&P 500 closed at a record high Tuesday while rebounding from huge losses triggered by The Virus Chaos. […]

Mortgage Apps Up Strong on Low Interest Rates

Mortgage Apps Up Strong on Low Interest Rates

#mortgage #applications Mortgage applications rose nearly 7% in the latest wk on low interest rates and strong refinance activity, an industry group reports. Mortgage applications increased 6.8% from 1 wk earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending 7 August. The Market Composite Index, a measure of […]

There is Little Reason to Expect a Slowdown in Gold Buying

There is Little Reason to Expect a Slowdown in Gold Buying

#gold #XAU #GLD #silver #XAG #SLV #rally #USD #Treasuries #yields #interest #Fed $XAU $GLD $XAG $SLV $USD Deepening negative real yields in the US Treasury market are driving a this rally in gold that is seeing the precious Yellow metal moving toward record highs. Bullion has gained 24% this year and is about $40 from […]

Mega Caps Back and Fill, Dollar Slides, Gold Charges to Record Highs

Mega Caps Back and Fill, Dollar Slides, Gold Charges to Record Highs

#stocks #gold #silver #dollar #C19coronavirus #China #global #growth #COMEX #VeryBullish $DIA $QQQ $SPY $RUTX $VXX $USO $USD $XAU $GLD $XAG $SLV Moving the Market: Profit taking in mega-caps Thursday, Gold traded near 1,900oz, moving closer to it’s all-time high set nearly 9 yrs ago on concerns about global growth that is driving safe-haven demand. Increasing […]

Savvy Investors Stick With Stocks, Adding Some Gold

Savvy Investors Stick With Stocks, Adding Some Gold

#investors #stocks #earnings #bonds #gold #Fed $SPY $GLD $XAU The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) is selling for 28X earnings. That is above the 25-yr MA of 25 but implies an equivalent interest rate of 3.6%. The 10-yr Treasury yield is less than 0.7%, and the Fed is committed to keeping rates low. Stocks outperform bonds by a wide margin […]

Precious Metals Solid in this Bull Market

Precious Metals Solid in this Bull Market

#Gold #Silver #preciousmetals #Fed #ECB #RBA #C19Coronavirus #inflation #currencies #stocks $XAU $GLD $XAG $SLV $USD $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Analysts and economists are calculating the destruction the C-19 coronavirus chaos, and traders in the financial markets trying to understand the ramifications of the virus’ presence. The market trends demonstrate that our prior precious metals forecasts continue […]

Gold and the Stock Market are Moving North

Gold and the Stock Market are Moving North

#gold #stock #market #yield #opportunity #USD #safehaven #asset #investors #negative #interest #stimulus #Fed #inflation #rally $GLD $XAU $USD Negative real yields mean opportunity cost of holding gold disappears. Traditionally Gold has been thought of as a safe-haven asset. But that has not stopped it from rising to 9-yr highs, and within striking distance of its […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, Americans Holding a Huge ‘Pile of Cash’

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, Americans Holding a Huge ‘Pile of Cash’

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX #Paul Ebeling #Wall Street #recovery #cash #technicals #patterns #Fed #Bulls Last Week’s Action The indexes are in consolidation mode, and the leaders are leading pulling back and testing their moves, the trend is up and the Bulls are still in charge. Financials received bids ahead of the release of the […]

Expert Sees US Inflation Remaining Low for Years

Expert Sees US Inflation Remaining Low for Years

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Inflation in the US is likely to come back slowly, keeping the Fed from raising interest rates for an extended period. Over the next couple of years, prices are likely to increase to the 2.3% to 2.4% level, as the Fed has learned its lesson from past interest rate increases […]

US Seeing a ‘Big V-shaped’ Economic Rebound Ahead

US Seeing a ‘Big V-shaped’ Economic Rebound Ahead

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX The US the economy has started to benefit from a V-shaped recovery Markets are benefiting from both liquidity and optimism that the C-19 coronavirus chaos will fade away or be contained. But, it take some time before we come all the way up and get back to Y 2019 marks. […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, Inflation Alert

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, Inflation Alert

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Last Week’s Action Stock indexes are consolidating, the economic data impresses, as headlines focus on new China Virus cases in the wake of massive new testing. Last Friday was Quad Witching expiration, and we saw leaders continue to lead. Perhaps other sectors will now start to contribute to the uptrend. […]

Inflation is Coming, Be Ready…Our Inflation Indicator is Flashing Red

Inflation is Coming, Be Ready…Our Inflation Indicator is Flashing Red

$XAU $XAG $GLD $SLV $USD Gold, forests, property stocks, inflation-linked bonds, these are just some of the assets investors are betting lots money into on the view that the recent explosion of government spending and Fed stimulus may rouse inflation from its 10 yrs+ sleep. If inflation really is “the dog that didn’t bark”, failing […]

What the Fed Said in ‘Five Easy Pieces’

What the Fed Said in ‘Five Easy Pieces’

Last Wednesday Fed Chairman Powell spoke showing he has the power to move markets when it comes to monetary policy and how to help deal with the current C-19 coronavirus chaos’s instant recession. The FOMC was not expected make any change regarding Zero interest rates and nothing really new on the Fed’s ongoing asset purchases […]

High Dividend Stocks are a Theme for the Foreseeable Future for Some Investors, + a Few Buy Rated Laggards

High Dividend Stocks are a Theme for the Foreseeable Future for Some Investors, + a Few Buy Rated Laggards

$LVS, $HAS $BBY Resilient dividend-paying companies, as some investors work to find safe sources of income during this ultra-low interest frame. Dividend stocks are the theme now as high yield stocks have outperformed during both rising and falling US bond yields, irrespective of market direction and across economic cycles. We believe that the safest bets for dividends […]

Psychologically the Fear of Missing Out is Driving the US Stock Market

Psychologically the Fear of Missing Out is Driving the US Stock Market

$SPY $SPX Last Thursday, Wall Street professionals showed retail investors who bet that stocks would continue their uninterrupted drive North, that they are incharge. Yes, there are lots of investors who missed out on Wall Street’s recovery since the 23 March lows and may take advantage of the midweek selloff to enter. That suggest some […]

President Trump Hammers Powell, “Fed is Often Wrong”

President Trump Hammers Powell, “Fed is Often Wrong”

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $BA $VXX President Trump says the US economy will be back and better than ever next year. Thursday, President Trump hammered the Fed after Fed Chairman Powell offered a grim outlook on the US economy, saying there is a “long road” ahead. “I see the numbers also, and do MUCH better […]

Fed Chairman Powell, “Near-Zero Rates Through 2022, GDP to Hit 5% Next Year”

Fed Chairman Powell, “Near-Zero Rates Through 2022, GDP to Hit 5% Next Year”

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Wednesday, the Trump Fed signaled it will provide years of extraordinary support for an economy clawing back from the C-19 coronavirus chaos. Th FOMC projects a 6.5% decline in GDP this yr and a 9.3% unemployment rate at yr’s end. In the 1st economic projections of the virus quarter, US central […]

President Trump Praised for Fast Aid/Relief Delivery to The People

President Trump Praised for Fast Aid/Relief Delivery to The People

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) praised The Trump Administration Tuesday for organizing its agencies to deliver medical emergency aid “incredibly quickly,” which helped the country withstand the devastating economic effects of the C-19 coronavirus chaos. CBO director Phillip L. Swagel said Congress moved fast to approve its stimulus bill, while the Treasury Department and the Small Business Administration (SBA) […]

Fed’s Report says Recovery will not be Fast

Fed’s Report says Recovery will not be Fast

The Fed’s Beige Book report took the temperature of business activity across its 12 US districts shedding light on the depth of the economic pain generated by The China Virus, which led to an instant and unprecedented downturn. The Fed’s survey, known as the “Beige Book,” was completed in April, when non-essential businesses were shut down in […]

Investors Imagine Negative US Interest Rates

Investors Imagine Negative US Interest Rates

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX Negative interest rates in the US were once taboo. The C-19 coronavirus chaos changed that, and has forced investors to give serious thought to the implications of such a drastic policy shift. Rate options, which gauge monetary policy expectations, Monday implied a 23% probability that the Key federal funds rate will […]

Goodbye to High-yield Savings Accounts

Goodbye to High-yield Savings Accounts

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX For years, the high-yield saving products were a success for both consumers and financial institutions alike. After getting almost Zero interest from big US banks, individuals who parked their excess cash with the likes of Ally Financial Inc., Barclays Plc, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s consumer bank, Marcus, or HSBC Holdings Plc’s HSBC Direct […]

The Economics of Negative Interest Rates Simplified

The Economics of Negative Interest Rates Simplified

Here we assess whether this is a sustainable form of monetary policy for central banks in some countries at risk of a deflationary depression. A negative interest rate policy happens when a country’s central bank lowers the nominal monetary policy interest rate below Zero. In other words, commercial banks must pay to lodge some of […]

The Market is Calling for Negative Interest Rates, They Will Come…

The Market is Calling for Negative Interest Rates, They Will Come…

President Trump support negative rates. Recall he has said, “Fed should cut rates to ‘Zero or less.’” Forward-looking indicators are seeing the possibility of negative interest rates by the end of this year or the beginning of next year. This is happening despite repeated statements by Fed officials that negative rates are unlikely and undesirable. […]

“Unprecedented Situations Require Unprecedented Actions”

“Unprecedented Situations Require Unprecedented Actions”

Unprecedented situations require unprecedented actions. That’s why the Fed should fight a rapidly deepening recession by taking interest rates below Zero for the 1st time ever. When the FOMC holds its regular policy-making meeting next week, all the warning lights will be flashing Red. The unemployment rate is expected to reach 2X digits by June. […]

ECB Will Do More “If Needed”

ECB Will Do More “If Needed”

The European Central Bank (ECB) will take further action if necessary to keep prices stable in line with its mandate, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said in an interview Saturday. With inflation below its 2% target, the ECB will have to keep interest rates “very low” and liquidity “very abundant”, Mr. Villeroy, who is […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, This Bull Market Vs Coronavirus

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, This Bull Market Vs Coronavirus

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Just In: Goldman Says US Stocks Have Likely Bottomed Unprecedented policy support and a flattening viral curve have “dramatically” cut risks, the bank said early Monday in a note. Despite the COVID-19 coronavirus, ‘new’ Bull market can run Last week was a shortened week, here is how it played US […]

Gold: Conditions Setting Up for the Price to 2X

Gold: Conditions Setting Up for the Price to 2X

$XAU $GLD $USD Volatile stock markets and the outbreak of the coronavirus helped drive holdings in gold-backed ETFs to record highs in Y 2020. The buying is a clear indication of the prominent role of gold ETFs in investors’ portfolios, especially during periods of uncertainty and panic. Gold-backed ETFs saw $4.9-B of inflows in February, […]

“Stocks Will Surge from ‘Pent-Up Demand’ After Coronavirus Outbreak Ends”

“Stocks Will Surge from ‘Pent-Up Demand’ After Coronavirus Outbreak Ends”

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Jim Cramer Monday that “there will be a huge amount of pent-up demand” for stocks when the threat of the coronavirus is contained. “There will be a huge amount of pent-up demand when this is done. And it will be done,” he said. “Look for companies that […]

Bear Market in Stocks Confirmed

Bear Market in Stocks Confirmed

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX A Bear market is confirmed when an index sinks 20% or more below its most recent closing high. For the 2nd time this week, the S&P 500 triggered a 15-min trading halt after falling by 7.0% shortly after the open following more economic disruptions caused by the coronavirus. Note: New […]

US Stock Bulls Up and Running

US Stock Bulls Up and Running

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Tuesday, Wall Street’s Bulls came back to life rising from the edge of Bear market confirmation as bargain-hunters and notions of government stimulus calmed investors’ fears surrounding the coronavirus and prospects of a recession. All 3 major US stock market indexes spiked nearly 5% the day after they suffered their […]

Global Markets and Commodities

Global Markets and Commodities

$GLD $XAU $OIL $USO $USD $MSCI Crude Oil and global equity markets bounced back after the Monday’s losses as the world’s biggest economies moved to cushion the impact of the coronavirus, but stock gains in Europe failed to hold as investors are still cautious. The price of Brent Crude Oil climbed 10% on hopes a […]

Atlanta Fed Raises GDP Estimate to 3.1% + The World Markets and Commodities Wrap

Atlanta Fed Raises GDP Estimate to 3.1% + The World Markets and Commodities Wrap

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $XAU, $XAG, $CU, $OIL, $USO, $VXX FLASH: The S&P 500 staged a 70-pt rally during the final hr of trade, which led to a significant improvement in final sector standings, though all 11 sectors finished in the Red. The US economy is likely growing at a 3.1% annualized rate in Q-1, […]

Expect Another Fed Rate Cut Soon…

Expect Another Fed Rate Cut Soon…

$USD $GLD $XAU …the USD will weaken, gold will strengthen, short-term interest rates to Zero. Investment guru Jeffrey Gundlach says that he believes the Fed panicked in cutting interest rates earlier this week. “When I say panicked, it does not mean it is not justified. Sometimes panic is justified,” the Bond King said. The Bond […]

Gold Price Taps Overhead Resistance

Gold Price Taps Overhead Resistance

$XAU $GLD $USD The Gold markets have broken above 1650, but gave back the gains showing signs of exhaustion. Gold futures settled 1.40 lower (-0.1%) to 1,643.00 oz as action quieted down a bit following Tuesday’s spike higher, and ,DXY is up about 0.3% at 97.40. Now if the market break down it is likely that […]

Atlanta Fed Lifts Q-1 GDP Estimate to 2.7%

Atlanta Fed Lifts Q-1 GDP Estimate to 2.7%

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX DJIA +1293.96 at 26703.29, NAS Comp +384.80 at 8952.17, S&P 500 +136.01 at 3090.23 The major averages spiked Monday with the S&P 500 recording its 1st gainer since 19 February. The US economy is likely growing at a 2.7% annualized rate in Q-1, based on the latest economic data, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed Monday. […]

Market Looks Like it is Trading with a Recession in Mind, Though the Economy is Strong

Market Looks Like it is Trading with a Recession in Mind, Though the Economy is Strong

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX The US economy grew moderately in Q-4, the government confirmed, and may be facing a rocky road in early Y 2020 on the notion that coronavirus will hobble it, and bring on a recession. The economy grew by an unrevised 2.3% in Y 2019, the slowest annual growth in 3 […]

Gold Price +2% Set to Test $1,700 oz

Gold Price +2% Set to Test $1,700 oz

$GLD $XAU $USD Gold futures spiked Monday to their highest finish since February 2013, as the spread of COVID-19 to Italy and other parts of the world brought about more nervousness into the markets, lifting demand for safe-havens assets including gold. The precious Yellow metal has become a more widely desired currency again, it is […]

“Blowout” Jobs Growth Reflects Very Strong Economy

“Blowout” Jobs Growth Reflects Very Strong Economy

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Friday, White House adviser Larry Kudlow said the “blowout” jobs report was just the cherry on top of a very strong economic start to this New Year. Manufacturing, job growth and the stock market all boosted the economy in January, he said. “I think we’re in very strong territory right […]

Gold Price Seen at $2,000 Near Term

Gold Price Seen at $2,000 Near Term

$XAU $GLD $SPY $SPX The S&P 500 posted a record high Wednesday at +37.10, or 1.1% at 3334.69 The reverse side of market optimism was the correction of safe-havens such as JPY and Gold. The JPY declined against the Buck, lead USDJPY to its highs in a 1. wks near 109.50, showing a rebound from the 200-Day SMA. Gold dropped […]

Fed Leaves Key Interest Rate Unchanged

Fed Leaves Key Interest Rate Unchanged

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX , $VXX The Fed held interest rates steady Wednesday at its first policy meeting of the year, the head of the central bank pointed to continued moderate economic growth and a “strong” job market, and giving no sign of any imminent changes in borrowing costs. “We believe the current stance of […]

“US Would Refinance, Pay Off Debt if Fed Lowered Rates”–President Trump

“US Would Refinance, Pay Off Debt if Fed Lowered Rates”–President Trump

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Less than 1 hr after Fed officials begin a two-day policy meeting, President Trump calls for a cut in rates. “The Fed should get smart & lower the Rate to make our interest competitive with other Countries which pay much lower even though we are, by far, the high standard,” […]

States That Backed Donald Trump Growing Faster Than Hillary Clinton Supporters

States That Backed Donald Trump Growing Faster Than Hillary Clinton Supporters

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The States that backed Republican President Trump in Y 2016 have enjoyed faster growth last year than states that supported Democrat Hillary Clinton, a Yelp index shows. Five of the 7 fastest-growing states in the US during Y 2019 went Red in the last Presidential election, according to a trend tracked […]

2020: Buy Gold, Bet on Emerging Markets

2020: Buy Gold, Bet on Emerging Markets

$XAU $GLD “Gold is a place you want to be. I think that it’s partly because its inversely correlated with interest rates. But it’s also an insurance policy when things go wrong,” David Rosenberg said. “There’s no such thing as a no-brainer, but this is close.” Gold is off to a terrific start this year […]

2020: USA, No Recession, Steady Economy, Low Inflation

2020: USA, No Recession, Steady Economy, Low Inflation

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX US stocks will continue to rise this year on very little chance of a recession, and low inflation driving steady economic growth, with real GDP growing around 2.0%, and inflation remains below 2.0%. That is our outlook for Y 2020. We do not see a recession in this year’s US […]

Key Element in ‘Phase 1’ Trade Resolution: China Implements Foreign Investment Law

Key Element in ‘Phase 1’ Trade Resolution: China Implements Foreign Investment Law

China has unveiled a regulation on implementing the foreign investment law (FDI) to better protect the legitimate rights and interests of foreign investors. Premier Li Keqiang signed a State Council decree to publish the regulation. It takes effect on 1 January 2020, the same day when the law becomes effective. As a matching regulation to […]

The Financial Markets in Year of the Rat 2020

The Financial Markets in Year of the Rat 2020

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $XRT, $IWM Our New Year is here and we are just a few weeks away from the Chinese New Year, so not too early to share some of my favorite Chinese Astrologer’s thoughts on the coming Year of the Rat, he is famous for his predictions, but not perfect. The background: […]

‘Trump Power’ Economy to Be Strong in 2020, Become Even More Powerful

‘Trump Power’ Economy to Be Strong in 2020, Become Even More Powerful

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX By almost every measure the US economy did well in Y 2019 though growth was slower than Y 2018. For next year, contrary to the consensus view from most economists, economic growth will accelerate. And growth could increase even more after Y 2020. President Trump has set the stage for […]

S&P 500 Marks Another Record High as Santa Claus Continues the Rally

S&P 500 Marks Another Record High as Santa Claus Continues the Rally

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The S&P 500 finished little changed Friday and the NAS Comp ended an 11-day streak of gainers after some late-session weakness, the DJIA another record as investors play the Santa Claus rally. The DJIA rose 23.53 points, or 0.08%, to 28,644.92, the S&P 500 gained 0.07 points, or 0.00%, to […]

Gold Prices on Pace to Mark Biggest Annual Gainer in 9 Yrs

Gold Prices on Pace to Mark Biggest Annual Gainer in 9 Yrs

$GLD, $XAU, $SLV, $XAG, $USD Gold prices look to end the year more than 15% higher, on track to post their biggest annual gainer in 9 years. “Gold has seen considerable safe haven buying from investors concerned over low and negative yields in the bond market and fearing a possible downturn in equities,” said the […]

A Case for the Extension of This Bull Market

A Case for the Extension of This Bull Market

$SPY, $RUTX, $USD Last Christmas, the longest Bull market in our lifetime came within points of dying as the Fed raised interest rates. Some pundits say that every 3 years or so something pushes the Bull market to the brink of extinction, before a last-minute escape, that there is a record of support that underpins […]

US Household Net Worth Climbs to $113.8-T on Real Estate

US Household Net Worth Climbs to $113.8-T on Real Estate

Rising real estate prices helped drive US household wealth to $113.8-T in the July through October frame, a report by the Fed showed Thursday. That compares to an downwardly revised $113.3-T net worth for households in Q-2 of Y 2019, the Fed said. The US economy is experiencing its longest expansion on record and households and households […]

FMOC: Interest Rates Unchanged, Forecasts Show No Change in 2020

FMOC: Interest Rates Unchanged, Forecasts Show No Change in 2020

Chairman Powell’s Press Conference: The record-long US economic expansion is in its 11th year, a Bull run that has driven unemployment to the lowest level since Y 1969 even while failing to sustainably deliver inflation at the Fed’s 2% target. Officials also released new Quarterly forecasts showing the following:: The median estimate for the fed […]

US Consumer Spending on the Rise

US Consumer Spending on the Rise

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Americans increased their spending in October at the fastest rate in 3 months even though income growth was essentially flat, its weakest showing in 13 months. The Commerce Department said Wednesday that consumer spending rose 0.3% last month, the best gainer since a 0.5% rise in July. An inflation gauge that is […]

Markets Wrap with Tech Lifting NAS to Record

Markets Wrap with Tech Lifting NAS to Record

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX The S&P 500 declined 0.1% Tuesday in a mixed session. The retail industry was under pressure following disappointing quarterly results and guidance from Home Depot (HD 225.86, -12.99, -5.4%) and Kohl’s (KSS 47.02, -11.38, -19.5%) The NAS Comp climbed to a fresh record on the back of gains in mega cap tech companies even as the […]

President Trump Wants Zero Interest Rates, Told Powell

President Trump Wants Zero Interest Rates, Told Powell

$USD President Trump said he “protested” US interest rates that he considers too high relative to other developed countries in a meeting Monday with Fed Chairman Powell. Mr. Powell met with President Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin at the White House residence in the morning at the President’s request to discuss the economy. It […]

US Economy Must Grow Faster Than the Federal Debt, President Trump is Correct

US Economy Must Grow Faster Than the Federal Debt, President Trump is Correct

Fed Chairman Powell likes to avoid any hint of politics in his public statements, but in a non-controversial response to a Question about US government borrowing Wednesday, he weighed in on one of the core issues in the political debate over how to manage the economy. Over the past year in particular, many mainstream economists […]

Gold Bounced Finishing in the Green

Gold Bounced Finishing in the Green

$XAU, $GLD, $USD Gold prices bounced off session lows and closed in the Green Tuesday, despite a stronger USD. Yields remain edged lower. German data is showing some small signs of improvement. President Trump in a speech before the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday to hammered the Fed, saying that although the stock […]

President Trump, “We Have Delivered on Our Promises, Exceeding All Expectations” (Video)

President Trump, “We Have Delivered on Our Promises, Exceeding All Expectations” (Video)

$SPY Over 1,350 people attended the lunchtime speech according to the Economic Club of NY spokeswoman. The club’s membership is a who’s who of New York’s financial elite, and its trustees include John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and billionaire hedge fund investor John Paulson, 1 of President Trump’s Top […]

“Low interest rates and budget deficit spending will be a boon for the market”

“Low interest rates and budget deficit spending will be a boon for the market”

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX “Efforts to stimulate global economies are boosting equities in a way I have never seen before.”– Paul Tudor Jones Mr. Jones also said Tuesday that next year’s Presidential election “will be more meaningful than any in my lifetime.” Governments and central bankers from Japan to the US are taking steps […]

US Pending Home Sales Reached 21-Month High in September

US Pending Home Sales Reached 21-Month High in September

The US housing market is still benefiting from lower mortgage rates, as more Americans signed contracts to buy homes in September. The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday that its pending home sales index rose 1.5% from August to September to 108.7, its highest level since December 2017. Measured Y-Y, pending home sales have risen 3.9%. Home […]

President Trump Has “Muscled” the Stock Market Away from the Fed

President Trump Has “Muscled” the Stock Market Away from the Fed

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $USD, $VXX This week the Fed cut interest rates for the 2nd time since the Great Recession, and found its hands full with another event with potentially catastrophic implications for the economy. In short, liquidity in the repo markets, a critical cog in the financial system machine seized Tuesday. In response, […]

Wall Street Nears Record Highs Ahead of FOMC Policy Announcement

Wall Street Nears Record Highs Ahead of FOMC Policy Announcement

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $$USO, $XAU, $GLD, $VXX S&P 500 closed higher in front of FOMC interest rate decision Wednesday 9 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher, led by the real estate (+1.4%), utilities (+0.9%), and materials (+0.7%) sectors. The energy (-1.5%) and industrials (-0.04%) sectors were the sectors to finish in the […]

Majority of Business Leaders Say President Trump Will Win in 2020

Majority of Business Leaders Say President Trump Will Win in 2020

More than 67% of North American CFOs (chief financial officers) surveyed by CNBC say President Trump will be re-elected in Y 2020. About a 25% believe former Vice President Joe Biden will win. This is the 1st time the CNBC Global CFO Council survey has asked executives about the upcoming elections. The survey also showed that a majority […]

Gold: Investment Strategy

Gold: Investment Strategy

$XAU, $GLD, $GOLD, $NEM, $USD Emerging markets have/are adding to gold holdings, undeterred by prices near their highest levels in more than 6 years, as countries such as Russia and China diversify their Fx reserves, a trend we believe that is likely to continue. Central bank buying is important to the supply/demand dynamic for the […]

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