“Consumer prices in December rose the most year-over-year since Y 1982, feeding into the Fed’s guidance that it may need to raise interest rates 3X this year to combat inflation. But the last yr has taught investors an important lesson: forecasters have to stay humble, and nimble meaning there’s no guarantee that 3 hikes will be necessary and happen” — Paul Ebeling
The Fed has said many times that they are data dependent. So, if the data requires them to raise 3X they might do it. But if the data changes, then maybe they will not.
Fed Chairman Powell told the Senate Banking Committee this wk, “If we see inflation persisting at high levels, longer than expected, if we have to raise interest rates more over time, then we will.”
Heads up for economists analysts, and strategists, approach these expectations with humility. A lot of things can change, and change fast.
Have a prosperous day, Keep the Faith!