Latest AI Predictions for FIFA World Cup 2026

The 2026 World Cup is in full swing across the United States, Canada and Mexico, and the group stage is nearly done. This is the biggest World Cup ever — 48 teams instead of the usual 32 — so there is a lot to keep track of. We have done that for you. Below is a plain-English guide to where every team stands right now, who has already made it through, who is going home, and what we expect to happen in the games still to come. No jargon, no walls of numbers — just the story so far and where we think it is heading, ending with our pick to lift the trophy.

How the new World Cup works (in one minute)

The 48 teams are split into 12 groups of four. Each team plays the other three in its group once. The two best teams in every group go through to the knockout rounds. On top of that, the eight best third-placed teams across all the groups also sneak through. Add it up and 32 of the 48 teams survive the group stage.

The important thing to understand: finishing third is a gamble. Twelve teams will finish third, but only the eight strongest of them go through. So a team can win its last game and still go home, while another can lose and still squeak in. Every goal counts, right to the final whistle.

Once the group stage ends, it is straight knockout football — win or you are out — all the way to the final in New Jersey on 19 July.

Who is already through, and who is already out

Seven teams have played well enough to guarantee a spot in the next round with a game to spare:

Mexico, the United States, Germany, France, Norway, Argentina and Colombia.

That is a healthy mix — three of the host nations' big hopes (Mexico and the USA have both started superbly), two of Europe's heavyweights, the defending champions, and South America's in-form Colombia.

Five teams are already out, unable to reach the next round no matter what happens next:

Haiti, Türkiye, Tunisia, Jordan and Panama.

Türkiye are the biggest surprise on that list — most people expected more from them.

Where every group stands

Here is the simple version of all 12 groups: who is sitting pretty, who is fighting for their lives, and who is done.

Group A. Mexico are through and have looked the part on home soil, winning both games. South Korea are in a strong position for the second spot, with Czechia and South Africa both still clinging on and needing a big result on the final day.

Group B. Co-hosts Canada have been a revelation, hammering Qatar 6-0. They and Switzerland are both in good shape and effectively playing each other for top spot. Bosnia and Qatar are all but gone.

Group C. Brazil and Morocco are stride for stride at the top and both look likely to go through. Scotland are still alive but need to win. Haiti are out.

Group D. The United States have been the team of the tournament so far, brushing aside Paraguay and Australia to qualify early. Australia and Paraguay are scrapping for the second spot. Türkiye are out.

Group E. Germany have been frightening, scoring seven goals in their opening game alone. They are through and look dangerous. Ivory Coast are favourites for second, with Ecuador and Curaçao needing a miracle.

Group F. This is the tightest group in the whole tournament. The Netherlands and Japan are level and almost impossible to separate, with Sweden right behind them ready to pounce. Tunisia are out.

Group G. The group of surprises. Egypt lead it, and Belgium — one of the teams many tipped to go far — have stumbled badly and are in real danger of an early exit. Iran and New Zealand are still in the mix too. This one will go to the wire.

Group H. Spain look comfortable at the top and should go through. The story here is Cape Verde, a tiny island nation at their first ever World Cup, who are holding their own and dreaming of the knockouts. Uruguay are also in the hunt.

Group I. Already settled. France and Norway have both won both their games and are through. They now meet to decide who finishes first. Norway are back at a World Cup for the first time in nearly 30 years and have been excellent.

Group J. Argentina, the defending champions, are through and Lionel Messi is on fire — he has scored five goals in two games. They look like a team nobody will want to face. Austria and Algeria are fighting for second; Jordan are out.

Group K. Colombia are through with a perfect record. Portugal, despite plenty of quality, slipped up and now have to make sure of their place on the final day. DR Congo and Uzbekistan are up against it.

Group L. A proper three-way fight. England top the group but Ghana are right alongside them and Croatia, beaten finalists not long ago, are lurking. Two of those three go through; Panama are out.

The players everyone is talking about

A World Cup is always defined by its stars, and a few have already lit up this one.

Lionel Messi (Argentina). At what is almost certainly his last World Cup, Messi is rolling back the years. Five goals in two games — including a hat-trick — has Argentina fans dreaming of back-to-back titles. As long as he is on the pitch, Argentina are a threat to win it all.

Germany's attack. No single name, but a forward line that put seven goals past one opponent in a single game. Germany have been the most exciting team to watch going forward, and if they keep scoring at this rate they will be very hard to stop.

Norway's golden generation. Back at a World Cup after nearly three decades away, Norway have not just turned up to make up the numbers — they have won both their games. Their generation of young, powerful attackers has announced itself on the biggest stage.

The host nations. Both Mexico and the United States have ridden their home crowds to early qualification. For the USA in particular, beating Paraguay and Australia so convincingly has lifted belief that this team can go deep in their own tournament — something that would capture the public's imagination across the country.

The underdogs. Cape Verde, one of the smallest nations ever to reach a World Cup, are genuinely competing for a knockout spot. Morocco, who stunned the world by reaching the semi-finals last time, are quietly doing it again. These are the stories that make the tournament special.

The games still to come — and what we expect

The final round of group games runs from Wednesday 24 June to Saturday 27 June. Here is every match left, with our call on who comes out on top and why, written plainly.

Wednesday 24 June

Switzerland v Canada — Likely a draw. Both are already in good shape and may settle for a point each.
Bosnia v Qatar — Bosnia to win. They have more to play for and more quality.
Scotland v Brazil — Brazil to win comfortably. Too much firepower for Scotland.
Morocco v Haiti — Morocco, easily. Haiti are already out and Morocco are flying.
Czechia v Mexico — Mexico to edge it. Home crowd and momentum on their side.
South Africa v South Korea — South Korea to win and book their place.

Thursday 25 June

Ecuador v Germany — Germany to win. They are the form team and Ecuador need to attack, which plays into German hands.
Curaçao v Ivory Coast — Ivory Coast to win and likely seal second place.
Japan v Sweden — Japan to nick it in a close one.
Tunisia v Netherlands — Netherlands to win comfortably against an eliminated Tunisia.
Türkiye v USA — USA to win, though they may rest players with qualification already secured.
Paraguay v Australia — Too close to call; we lean towards a draw, which would set up a nervy finish for both.

Friday 26 June

Norway v France — A draw feels right. Both are already through, so expect a cagey game with one eye on the knockouts.
Senegal v Iraq — Senegal to win, but it may be too late for them either way.
Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia — Cape Verde to win a tight one and complete a fairytale run to the knockouts.
Uruguay v Spain — Spain to come through a tough test.
Egypt v Iran — A draw, which could be enough to send Egypt through and leave Belgium sweating.
New Zealand v Belgium — Belgium to win — they have to, and we expect them to finally click.

Saturday 27 June

Panama v England — England to win clearly and top the group.
Croatia v Ghana — Croatia to edge it, with their big-game experience telling.
Colombia v Portugal — A draw. Colombia are already through and may rotate, which helps Portugal get the point they need.
DR Congo v Uzbekistan — DR Congo to win a tight match.
Algeria v Austria — A coin flip; we slightly favour Austria.
Jordan v Argentina — Argentina to win at a canter, even if they rest Messi.

The games that really matter on the final day are in Groups F, G, H and L, where places are still genuinely up for grabs. Belgium's situation is the one to watch — a giant of European football could be packing its bags far earlier than anyone expected.

What could change everything

Football predictions are educated guesses, and a World Cup is built to surprise people. Here are the things most likely to upend the form guide.

The third-place gamble. Because eight third-placed teams go through, tiny margins decide everything. A single goal, or even which team has picked up fewer bookings, can be the difference between flying home and staying in the tournament. Expect drama on the final day in several groups.

Big teams taking their foot off the gas. Seven teams are already through and will likely rest their stars to keep them fresh for the knockouts. A second-string side is unpredictable — sometimes they raise their game, sometimes they look flat. That is why a few of our "comfortable" calls could easily turn into a surprise.

The heat and the altitude. This tournament covers a huge area. Games in Mexico City are played high up where the thin air tires players quickly, and matches in places like Texas and Florida are played in punishing summer heat. Tired legs late in games lead to mistakes and goals, and the teams with deeper, fitter squads have a real edge.

One injury or one red card. In knockout football, losing a key player or having someone sent off can decide a match in an instant. The teams that stay disciplined and avoid injuries often go furthest.

Refereeing calls and set pieces. A tight offside decision, a penalty, or a well-worked corner can swing any game. These moments are impossible to predict and are where most upsets are born.

Home advantage. Mexico and the USA have noisy, passionate crowds behind them, and that lift is worth something the numbers cannot fully capture.

What happens after the groups

Once the group stage finishes on 27 June, the tournament changes character completely. There are no more second chances — every game is win-or-go-home.

The knockout rounds begin on 28 June with the Round of 32, where the 32 surviving teams pair off. The winners go to the Round of 16, then the quarter-finals in early July, the semi-finals in mid-July, and finally the showpiece. The final is set for 19 July at MetLife Stadium just outside New York City.

Because this is the first 48-team World Cup, the eventual champion will have to win more games than in any tournament before it. That puts a premium on squad depth and fitness — getting through this many matches in the summer heat, often travelling long distances between cities, is as much a test of stamina and strength in numbers as it is of pure talent. It is one of the biggest reasons we lean towards the teams with the deepest squads when picking a winner.

So, who wins the 2026 World Cup?

It is wide open at the top, and a handful of teams all have a genuine claim. Here is how we see the pecking order.

The strong favourites are France, Argentina, Spain and Germany. Each has the quality, the depth and the form to go all the way.

Argentina are the holders, and with Messi scoring for fun, they are nobody's idea of an easy draw.
Germany have been the most explosive team in attack and could blow anyone away on their day.
Spain are the most controlled, patient side and rarely beat themselves.
France have the most complete package of the lot.

In the mix just behind them are Brazil, with their usual wealth of talent, and England, who finally look to have the squad depth to match the hype.

Outside chances worth a flutter include Portugal and Morocco, the surprise semi-finalists from last time, who have shown they can upset the big names.

After weighing it all up, our pick to win the 2026 World Cup is France.

The reason is simple: they have everything you need to win a tournament. A solid defence that is hard to break down, a midfield that controls games, and the kind of match-winning pace and finishing up front that decides tight knockout ties. Just as importantly, they have the strength in depth to rest players, stay fresh through a gruelling, hot, travel-heavy schedule, and still put out a top team in the closing stages. That combination is what wins World Cups.

Our predicted final: France to beat Argentina in New Jersey on 19 July — a rematch of the dramatic 2022 final, with France getting their revenge this time. We expect Germany and Spain to be the teams that just fall short in the semi-finals, with Brazil and England the most likely to spring a surprise and gatecrash the party.

If anyone is going to stop France, our money is on Argentina — because a Messi in this kind of form can win a game on his own — or Germany, if their attack catches fire at the right moment.

The bottom line

The group stage has mostly gone as expected at the very top, with France, Argentina, Germany, Spain, Brazil and the host nations all looking strong. But the new, bigger format has delivered plenty of chaos underneath — Belgium are in trouble, tiny Cape Verde are dreaming, and several groups will be decided right at the death.

Our call: France to lift the trophy, Argentina to push them all the way, and at least one team nobody expected to crash the knockout rounds. We will keep this updated as the results come in, all the way to the final.

A quick note: the results above are what has actually happened so far. Everything described as a prediction is our best estimate, meant for analysis and a bit of fun — not betting advice. Things change fast at a World Cup, so check the latest scores before relying on any of it.