The worst may be over for the world economy’s slowdown. A wave of interest-rate cuts by central banks including the Fed and mounting expectations of a US-China trade deal are buoying confidence in financial markets just as Key economic indicators show signs of stabilization after recent declines. While a robust rebound may not be here […]
The Christine Lagarde-era at the European Central Bank (ECB) is underway and the new President gets her 1st chance to frame her outlook for the economy and monetary policy publicly Monday. Ms. Lagarde, who took the mantle on 1 November from Mario Draghi, will speak in Berlin at a time when policy makers at the […]
$XAU, $XAG, $GLD, $SLV, $USD Gold prices climbed above the Key $1,500 mark Thursday to mark their highest finish in about two weeks, as a monthly drop in U.S. durable goods orders buoyed haven appeal for the metal. The dismal durable goods number is helping boost gold prices as recession fears are again on the […]
European Central Bank governors were divided as never before over their decision last month to re-launch “quantitative easing” (QE) mass bond-buying, an official account of the meeting showed Thursday, underscoring an already bitter public debate. While “all members agreed that a further easing of the monetary policy stance was warranted” to boost growth and inflation […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $SOY, $VXX US stocks extend rally on trade developments, ECB stimulus measures Tech gains led the S&P 500 and the NAS Comp higher, while financials gave the biggest boost to the blue-chip DJIA, which closed up for the 7th session running, its longest winning streak since May. Stocks rose worldwide as […]
French President Emmanuel Macron is still calling for a new global economic order, decrying an “unprecedented crisis” in the market economy in an attempt to become the leader of the EU, a failed socialist experiment that is falling apart. Amid what he calls the uncertainty of US trade policies, Mr. Macron said the market economy […]
The German government sold 30-yr bonds at a negative interest rate in a sign of the clouds over markets and future growth as well as increased expectations that more central bank stimulus is coming soon. The sale adds to the piles of negative-yielding bonds currently held by investors, indicating they expect growth and inflation to […]
$XAU, $GLD, $USD The gold bears have finally bowed under the weight of fiscal and geopolitical catalysts, from Fed hints to the brewing conflict with Iran. But there is a Key trend that stands to push gold up beyond $1,700 regardless of the daily events. Of course, it’s difficult for the bears to ignore this […]
$AAPL, $KO, $CAT, $AMZN, $MCD, $BA, $OIL, $SOY FLASH: Earnings season continues with companies including: Amazon.com, Alphabet, Unilever, Caterpillar, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s and Boeing. Monday, technology shares led gainers among US stocks following mixed sessions in Europe and Asia as investors looked ahead to a busy week of corporate earnings. Crude Oil gained amid tensions in […]
China and the US have agreed to hold more trade talks in Beijing, Vice Premier Liu He said as President Trump ordered his trade Chief to begin the process of imposing tariffs on all remaining imports from China. Mr. Liu voiced some optimism on reaching a deal, but said there were “issues of principle” on […]
$CNY China’s stock market investors are not quite ready to see Beijing scale back its efforts to support the economy. Stocks started the week lower after improving data prompted traders to pare back their bets for additional stimulus. The Shanghai Composite Index rallied Tuesday after the PBoC injected cash into the financial system, alleviating concerns […]
$BAC, $C, $JPM, $MS, $WFC, $USD, $GBP, $JPY The Fed As the US yield curve is deciding whether to invert/not Invert, investors seek reassurance that we are in a era of non-inflationary growth, and focus on monthly price gauges this week. Wednesday, the US Labor Department is expected to report that its March Consumer Price […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Cyclical sectors outperformed, follow-through buying interest came in on no new catalysts. Boeing (NYSE:BA) and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) extend losses on familiar story lines Patience is the FOMC’s focus now, signaling that it went too far last year with its 4 rate hikes, so no interest rate hikes likely soon. […]
The growing mystery of where China’s rapid slowdown is headed may become the biggest risk on the horizon. The world economy. Recession Watch: The global economy’s in its weakest shape since the financial crisis 10 years ago. China got more affirming evidence of its Big slowdown, with industrial output and retail sales softening and a […]
FLASH: President Trump’s top economic adviser offered sharp criticism of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) revival of stimulus measures to spur the EU’s economy. National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said that a ECB decision Thursday to extend a new round of cheap loans to the banking system wouldn’t be enough to fix the continent’s […]
When the Fed’s FOMC policymakers met last month and put it 3-year rate-hike campaign on hold and backed ending a yearlong push to shrink their $4-T balance sheet, that was draining the liquidity out of the system and shrinking the wealth of American house holds by the trillions of dollars, they cited increased risks to […]
China will step up fiscal spending this year to support its economy, focusing on further cuts in taxes and fees for small firms, finance ministry officials said Wednesday. Mounting US trade tariff pressure on the world’s 2nd-biggest economy pushed growth last year to its lowest since Y 1990 even as Beijing stepped up stimulus measures […]
The ECB’s Benchmark Interest Rate Unchanged at Zero $EURUSD The European Central Bank is stressing that interest rates will stay low well into next year even as the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep raising rates in coming months. The central bank for the 19 countries that use the euro left its key rates […]
President Trump’s Stimulus to Boost US Economy for ‘at Least’ 3 Years $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he believes the US economy remains in a “good place,” with recent government tax and spending programs likely to boost GDP (gross domestic product) for perhaps 3 years. “I think the […]
We Are Seeing Wall Street Rally Under President Trump $SPY Wall Street analysts are predicting another up year for the S&P 500 Index (SPY) It is worth taking notice what would be accomplished if that prediction happens. At 2,800, the average estimate of 9 strategists tracked points not only to another year of all-time highs, […]
Central Banks Turn “Hawkish”, JPY Carry Trade Emerges $GBP, $USD, $EUR, $JPY, $CAD Cable, Loonie and EUR all rose last week on Hawkish comments from central bankers. The BOE Governor Mark Carney said it is not the time of rate hike yet. Then indicated the BOE MPC will start debating raising interest rate in the […]
Comey’s Testimony: “Still Born”, DJIA Marks Record Highs $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US stocks were higher in early afternoon trading Thursday after sacked FBI Director James Comey’s testimony was seen by investors as yielding nothing that could affect Donald Trump’s Presidency. The DJIA earlier hit an intra-day record and continued to climb and settled back […]
European Central Bank Facing Continuing Challenges The European Central Bank (ECB) facing continuing challenges when its Governing Council meets Thursday in Estonia. The Eurozone’s central bank is likely to err on the side of prudence by avoiding any notable reduction in monetary stimulus, even though the arguments points to a different policy direction. The argument […]
Mario Draghi, “EU Growth Needs More Stimulus” The head of the European Central Bank (ECB) says while the economy of the 19-nation Eurozone is improving, but it still needs substantial stimulus. At a parliamentary hearing Monday in Brussels, ECB boss Mario Draghi said “the economic upswing is becoming increasingly solid and continues to broaden across […]
President Trump Can Revive the Economy that Socialist Obama Killed $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Thursday, Sam Zell said President Donald Trump has an “extraordinary opportunity” to revive an economy that died under 8 years of regulatory oppression under Barack Hussein Obama. “I think we’ve had 8 years of kind of an anti-business administration with very […]
ECB’s Draghi Cautiously Upbeat on Eurozone The Head of the European Central Bank (ECB) says that risks to the strengthening economy of the 19-country Eurozone have fallen insisting it is too early to declare victory and start withdrawing stimulus measures. Mario Draghi said in remarks delivered Wednesday in the Dutch Parliament that recent data confirm […]
Trump Stimulus Expectations Driving US and World Economies $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The world economy will grow steadily over the next 2 years, meaning investors should stay invested in equities, according to Barclays Capital Plc. Barclay’s analysts presented several major themes for the next 2 years Thursday, they are: President Donald Trump and Republicans in […]
President Trump in Action Put Washington in Cardiac Arrest $SPY, $QQQ Tuesday the Trump Rally extended and the S&P 500 finished at +14.87 at 2280.07 and the NAS Comp at +48.01 at 5600.95 all time highs. All of Washington DC is in in Cardiac Arrest over news reports that President Donald Trump is planning a budget […]
China’s Manufacturing Expands for 5th Month Running Activity at China’s factories slowed in December but still marked the 5th consecutive month of expansion in the latest sign that the world’s #2 economy is stabilizing. The monthly PMI (purchasing managers’ index) by the Chinese Federation of Logistics and Purchasing was 51.4 in December, the 2nd highest […]
Renewed Optimism Seen For Chinese Economy In March of this year Chinese leaders detailed the nation’s 13th 5-year plan running from 2016 – 2020 which doubles-down on a long-stated commitment to “double 2010 GDP by 2020”. The 2020 GDP goal would require annual growth rates of 6.5% to go from a nominal $10-T last year […]
The Trump Rally Continues to Notch New Highs $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Friday, the major US stock indexes drove North record highs, with the S&P 500 ending the week +3%, as investors bid up shares in sectors that have lagged since Donald Trump was elected President of the United States. The S&P 500 marked a […]
“Trump Effect” Hammering US Treasury Market US Treasury’s are having their worst month since Y 2009 after investors pulled money from the US bond market on speculation Donald Trump’s victory in the Presidential election will pave the way for increased fiscal stimulus. An index that tracks the Treasuries market has lost 2.5% this month through […]
It is Time to Be Optimistic Again $SPY Donald Trump’s plans for the economy will boost deficits, interest rates and growth but also will create opportunities for ordinary investors, it is time for Americans to be optimistic again. Both Trump and Hillary Clinton promised sorely needed additional spending on roads and public structures, schools, railway […]
Financial Markets “Waking Up” to a Trump Presidency $BAC The US financial markets are just now “waking up” to the possibility of a Donald Trump Presidency in the wake of Hillary Clinton’s numerous health problem’s and tightening polls, that according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch (NYSE:BAC) Head of Global Rates and Currencies Research David […]
Jeffrey Gundlach, “This is a Big, Big Moment” Last Thursday DoubleLine Capital’s CIO Jeffrey Gundlach, 56 anni, said it is time for fixed-income investors to prepare for rising interest rates and higher inflation by reducing their positions, moving money into cash and protecting against volatility. “This is a Big, Big Moment,” Mr. Gundlach said during […]
Key World Stock, Crude, Gold and Silver Markets Briefing $DIA, $OIL, $USO, $GLD, $SLV Commentary: Most of the markets waited for the ECB meet Thursday, where President Draghi was expected to extend the asset buying stimulus further, they were disappointed, as he did not come right out with it. But, from the tone, I understood […]
Financial Markets Running on “Hope” for Continuing Stimulus $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX In this world of easy money, where the markets hope the near-Zero interest rate policies to continue, there really should be hope for a growing not stagnant economy. This week;s economic reports have been dominated by a very strong consumer confidence report. The […]
Japan’s Economic Latest Stimulus Measures Expose Flawed “Abenomics” Japan’s unrolling this week of a stimulus plan of JPY 28.1-T (US$274-B) as part of Prime Minister Abe’s latest installment of his shaky “Abenomics” economic policy mix, lacks the equivocal allocations and long-term vision necessary to fundamentally kickstart the nation’s ailing economy. As evidenced by the stock […]
Gold Getting Boost from Japan Spend/Lend Stimulus $GLD, $SLV, $ABX, $KGC “Gold is getting another boost, this time from Japan PM Shinzo Abe” Gold prices are headed for the longest rally in more than 6 weeks after Japan’s cabinet Tuesday approved a spending/lending stimulus package, including JPY4.6-T in outlays this year. The USD also weakened, […]
BOJ to Boost Stimulus for Stagnant Economy Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced plans Wednesday for more than JPY 28-T ($265-B) in economic stimulus in an effort to prop up the nation’s stagnant economy. The plan will includeJPY 13-T in “fiscal measures,” he said in excerpts of a speech broadcast by NHK public television. Mr. […]
US Stocks Extend Momentum Rally to Fresh All Time Highs $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US stocks extended to fresh all-time highs, with the S&P 500 Index marking its longest winning streak in 4 months, as speculation grew for looser global monetary (stimulus) policies while a better-than-forecast profit from JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) boosted optimism […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX There will be some give back to start this week after such a strong move to close out the post-Brexit as the market is very overbought, but the momentum indicators are strong, new highs for S&P 500 and DJIA may happen early, the move has backing. […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The beginning of Q-3 starts Tuesday and with the Fed, BOE and ECB stating they will stand by the markets, we may presume that the major Wall Street indices will continue North though perhaps after a pause to refresh given velocity the move South and the V […]
Global Economy: Stiff Headwinds, Weak Recovery, Risky Future Looking back at the state of the global economy in 1-H of Y 2016, it is disappointing to see a weak recovery and a risky future. In its Global Economic Prospects released in June, the World Bank (WB) revised its Y 2016 global growth forecast down to 2.4 from […]
Caution, Investors are Chasing Stocks, more Tactical than Fundamental $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Investors are no longer running from the stock market they are chasing it for reasons that are more tactical than fundamental: Caution. It is too early to tell where the UK’s new position in the overall context of the EU will be […]
The S&P 500 Closed Out its 3rd Straight Quarter in the Green $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX, $HSY, $MDLZ Wall Street marked a 3rd straight day of gainers Thursday as the BOE raised the prospect of a Summer stimulus and consumer staples shares rose on news of Mondelez International’s (NASDAQ:MDLZ) $23-B bid for Hershey (NYSE:HSY). The […]
The “Lion’s” Share of US Economy is Consumer Spending $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX “When the dust settles on Brexit, it will be consumer spending that will determine the course of the U.S. economy and we need to wait a while before we know what consumers are thinking.” — Joel Naroff, economist Mr. Naroff means: The […]
Managed Money Cautious, Capital Preservation Key $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The “new normal” led to the “new neutral” led to ‘insecure stability”. The world has entering a phase of rising risks as the effect of central-bank stimulus policies diminishes. “You can think of it as insecure stability,” Richard Clarida, Pimco’s global strategic adviser, said in […]
Abenomics Not Likely to Lift Japan Out of Sluggish Growth Statistics released Wednesday showed Japan recorded better-than-expected economic growth numbers in Q-1 of the year. However, economists said the real picture may not be as rosy as it looks to be based on preliminary statistics. The reform plans championed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, known […]
