#PresidentTrump #market #safehavens #risk #volatility #Fed #economy #portfolio $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX $VIX “When financial assets move pari parsu, portfolio diversification becomes hard to achieve“– Paul Ebeling Since the advent of QE in Y 2008 safe-haven assets have become not much of a safe-haven. During that frame, we have seen unprecedented market moves with […]
#Fed #FOMC #QE #MegaTech #rally $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Mega tech’s market-leading days are numbered thanks to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The NAS 100 sank as much as 2.8% Thursday, pushed down by a fall in the mega cap tech stocks that have powered this rally. The decline came after FOMC policy makers pledged […]
#USD #Gold #investors #debt #Fed $XAU $GLD $USD $DXY The reason USD became the world’s reserve currency is that America has had the largest, strongest steadily growing and conservatively financed economy and a stable political system anchored in the US Constitution. Yet for USD to continue to be valued, the world has to believe in it. […]
#mortgage #homebuilding #retail #sales #Fed #QE #bonds #market #stimulus #economy $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX $SPSIHO The S&P 500 Homebuilding Index (SPSIHO), which includes Lennar Corp.(NYSE:LEN), DR Horton Inc.(NYSE:DHI), and PulteGroup Inc.(NYSE:PHM), gained 2.4% Thursday. The index is up nearly 9% YTD, compared with a 0.05% decline in the broad S&P 500 overall. US 30-year […]
$XAU $XAG $GLD $SLV $USD Gold, forests, property stocks, inflation-linked bonds, these are just some of the assets investors are betting lots money into on the view that the recent explosion of government spending and Fed stimulus may rouse inflation from its 10 yrs+ sleep. If inflation really is “the dog that didn’t bark”, failing […]
The Big Q: How low can the 30-year mortgage rate go? That is a concern investors have, as effective yields for MBS in some cases have already gone negative. Mortgage investors can take heart knowing the Federal considers agency MBS a primary arena through which to conduct monetary policy. It has purchased agency mortgage bonds […]
$GLD $XAU $USD The US once was on a gold standard. This meant people could exchange their Bucks for a fixed amount of gold. The US moved away from a strict gold standard in the 1930’s, and President Nixon abandoned it altogether in Y 1971. Since then, the USD has been a “fiat currency.” Meaning […]
$XAU $GLD $USD Volatile stock markets and the outbreak of the coronavirus helped drive holdings in gold-backed ETFs to record highs in Y 2020. The buying is a clear indication of the prominent role of gold ETFs in investors’ portfolios, especially during periods of uncertainty and panic. Gold-backed ETFs saw $4.9-B of inflows in February, […]
$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Jim Cramer Monday that “there will be a huge amount of pent-up demand” for stocks when the threat of the coronavirus is contained. “There will be a huge amount of pent-up demand when this is done. And it will be done,” he said. “Look for companies that […]
Sunday, the Fed took emergency action to help the economy withstand the coronavirus by slashing its benchmark interest rate to near Zero and saying it would buy $700-B in Treasury and mortgage bonds. The surprise announcement signaled its concern that the viral outbreak will depress economic growth in the coming months and that it is […]
$XAU $GLD $USD Gold is heading for its biggest weekly decliner since Y 2013, despite climbing to the highest in more than 7 yrs earlier this week, as investors sell the precious Yellow metal to meet liquidity needs. Stocks have been in free fall for 16 sessions on concerns emergency fiscal and monetary packages will not […]
$XAU $GLD By Mark J. Lundeen The Dow Jones is hugging its BEV Zero (0.00%) line in its BEV chart below, making a new all-time high on Wednesday, then closing the week a half point from this mid-week high. I expect more of the same for as far as the eye can see. And how […]
$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Last September something happened in the “repo” short-term financing market. Liquidity dried up, interest rates spiked, and the Fed stepped in to save the day. On 12 December a New York Fed statement said its trading desk would increase its repo operations around year end “to ensure that the supply of reserves remains […]
$USD After 4 rate hikes in Y 2018, the Fed cut interest rates 3X in Y 2019, making a remarkable and sharp U-turn in its monetary policy. The big shift reflected that Fed officials’ assessment of potential risks to the US economy has dramatically changed over the course of the year, due to slowing global […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Am seeing earnings revival boosting stock rally in Y 2020 But 1st, this is what happened last week: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has held steady and is not going to raise rates in Y 2020. Chairman Powell is also open to bond purchases. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) […]
$SPY, $RUTX, $USD Last Christmas, the longest Bull market in our lifetime came within points of dying as the Fed raised interest rates. Some pundits say that every 3 years or so something pushes the Bull market to the brink of extinction, before a last-minute escape, that there is a record of support that underpins […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX, $CS Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) analyst now predicts that a 4th round of QE (quantitative easing) will be needed before year’s end to ease mounting pressure in the short-term lending markets. He said QE-4 would help rebuild bank reserves, which have dropped as the Fed has shrunk its balance sheet. QE, […]
$XAU, $XAG, $GLD, $SLV, $USD Gold prices climbed above the Key $1,500 mark Thursday to mark their highest finish in about two weeks, as a monthly drop in U.S. durable goods orders buoyed haven appeal for the metal. The dismal durable goods number is helping boost gold prices as recession fears are again on the […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $USD, $VXX This week the Fed cut interest rates for the 2nd time since the Great Recession, and found its hands full with another event with potentially catastrophic implications for the economy. In short, liquidity in the repo markets, a critical cog in the financial system machine seized Tuesday. In response, […]
$SPY, $XAU, $BAC, $JPL, $USB All US financial markets are closed Monday, in observance of Labor Day. It may have taken $204-B of equity outflows this year, but the BofAML Bull & Bear Indicator is finally flagging a contrarian “buy signal,” its 1st since 3 January. Bank of America Merrill Lynch (NYSE:BAC) is Bullish on […]
The Fed is widely expected to reduce interest rates late this month. That probably means its campaign to shrink its balance sheet is over, leaving the central bank with trillions of dollars more than before the Y 2008 financial crisis. Beginning a decade ago in a bid to fight the Great Recession, the Fed by […]
The growing mystery of where China’s rapid slowdown is headed may become the biggest risk on the horizon. The world economy. Recession Watch: The global economy’s in its weakest shape since the financial crisis 10 years ago. China got more affirming evidence of its Big slowdown, with industrial output and retail sales softening and a […]
$GLD, $SLV, $USD FLASH: The Dem’s Green New Deal is silly and not worth our attention. But it implies we can have anything we want if the Fed extends credit. FACT: The 2 biggest US stock market rallies happened when the budget deficit was disappearing or had disappeared. Calvin Coolidge led the US through most […]
FLASH: This a Special Report, looking ahead at this leg of the longest Bull run in market history The US Stock Market: The Bulls Vs The Bears Russell 2000 +16.4% YTD NAS Comp +12.6% YTD DJIA +11.0% YTD S&P 500 +10.7% YTD US stocks rallied late last week into options expiration, even as some analysts felt like they should […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Friday afternoon that the central bank is debating whether QE (quantitative easing) should be reserved for emergencies or used more readily. Market turned; S&P 500 NAS Comp and RUTX finished in the Green, DJIA off a bit. The S&P 500 utilities sector […]
Now the chances of the UK leaving the EU are “50-50’’ if Parliament rejects Prime Minister Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement in January, International Trade Secretary Liam Fox said in an interview Sunday. “If we were not to vote for that, I’m not sure I would give it much more than 50-50,” the veteran campaigner for […]
The US Stock Market Remains in Consolidation Mode $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX, $USO The Bull has paused to refresh Fundamentals are Strong Interest rates are low Some pundits are saying that the world markets entered Y 2018 speculating that the most synchronized global economic expansion in a decade was going to get to Hot, but […]
The US 10yr Yield is the Global Benchmark, Do Not Fear It $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Growth-sensitive groups like industrials, materials, and technology lead the broad retreat Tuesday At the close: the DJIA -424 pts, or 1.7%, at 24,024, the S&P 500 -36 pts, or 1.3%, at 2,6234, and the NAS Comp -121 pts, or […]
Investors Rotating Leadership form QE ‘Winners’ to QE ‘Losers’ $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Analysts are expecting investors will shift their holdings as the realization sinks in that the Fed is committed to raising interest rates until a major event compels the central bank to reverse course. That means investments that had strong gains during a […]
Gold Under the Right Conditions to See 1900 oz+ $GLD The Federal has stated that it would begin winding down its holdings of US Treasury debt and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in October. The process is somewhat convoluted, with the Fed planning to allow up to $6-B of Treasury debt and $4-B in MBS to mature every month. […]
Gold Vs Fed, What’s in Store for the Precious Yellow Metal $GLD Some analysts speculate that investors in equities might turn, and take profits now that the Fed plans to let up to $6-B of US Treasury debt and $4-T in MBS (mortgage back securities)to mature every month without reinvesting the proceeds. Those amounts will […]
US President Trump Poised to Change Fed Leadership + $GLD,$SLV, $PPLT, $USD Every US President gets the chance to influence Fed policy through nominations to the central bank’s Board of Governors. But, most often, that chance is limited to a small number of nominations, 3 max, including a nomination for Chairperson. But President Trump is […]
Yellen and Draghi Open Jackson Hole Symposium Friday $USD, $DXY, $EUR The Jackson Hole Symposium is this week’s most anticipated event, in part due to a severe lack of other newsworthy market stories but also because two very important central bankers are scheduled to appear. The Fed and the ECB are not only 2 of […]
Weakening USD is Positive for Gold & Silver $GLD, $USD, $SLV The US Dollar (.DXY) Index has been moving lower, retreating 9% in 5 months, from 102 in March to its current 93.39. Not surprisingly, Gold has risen almost 10% in USD terms during this frame. Earlier this year many participant expected USD to continue its […]
QE to Infinity: Central Banking’s Manifest Destiny $GLD, $SLV, $GDX I’m not surprised; the week following my article illustrating why I believed the gold and silver miners are “historic buys at today’s prices”; gold, silver and their miners get whacked to their lows of the current, so far 8th week correction. But last week I also […]
This Fed Policy Stuff is Way Past its Expiration Date $GLD, $SLV, $NUGT, $GDXJ, $GGGG As expected, the FOMC passed up another opportunity to raise their Fed Funds Rate this week. With 2016 being an election year, and late September just a few weeks from the November election, how anyone could believe the Yellen Fed would […]
The Wealth Effect is Bunk, It Never Existed $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The so called “Wealth Effect” has been taken as a core component of monetary policy over the past several years. The world’s Key central bankers (Fed, BOE, ECB, and BOJ) will not admit it, but stock prices are a Key element of their […]
The US Fed has Not Delivered on the Economy The US Fed is stuck to actions devised by Ben S. Bernanke that have not worked to restore strong economic growth since the Great Recession The US central bank’s adherence to the idea that unemployment and weak demand can be cured with policies that encourage consumers, businesses and governments […]
Janet Yellen from Jackson Hole: More QE in Sight $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Friday, US Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen suggestion that she may consider further asset purchases aka QE to boost the anemic economy is yet another political “band aid”. Ms. Yellen, speaking Friday at a conference of central bankers and economists in Jackson Hole, […]
US Fed’s Ability to Respond to Recession is NIL $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US Fed officials fear that they lack the policy tools to combat future cyclical shocks to the US economy, an issue expected to be debated at the annual Jackson Hole Wyoming Summit later this week. The historically low Federal funds rate, Zero+, […]
Always take what the Market gives, “The Trend is Your Friend” $PG, $T, $KO, $MMM, $GLD, $SLV The world’s central bankers have declared a “War on Cash” to punish savers and reward speculators and in the process destroy the middle class. The only way to maintain the illusion that all is well is to get […]
Electrical Power (EP) & Market Update $GLD, $SLV, $DIA During the last 2 weeks the DJIA managed to make 6 consecutive new all-time highs (July 12-20) in the BEV Chart below. It ended last week only 0.13% from making the 7th. I didn’t believe the venerable Dow could do it without a new round of […]
Raise Rates, Don’t Raise Rates, Who’s Right? $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX There are those economists that argue that the US Fed should take an unconventional approach to ending a long period of below-target inflation: that being that instead of keeping interest rates low to drive economic activity and push up prices, it should raise interest […]
The “Lion’s” Share of US Economy is Consumer Spending $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX “When the dust settles on Brexit, it will be consumer spending that will determine the course of the U.S. economy and we need to wait a while before we know what consumers are thinking.” — Joel Naroff, economist Mr. Naroff means: The […]
Managed Money Cautious, Capital Preservation Key $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The “new normal” led to the “new neutral” led to ‘insecure stability”. The world has entering a phase of rising risks as the effect of central-bank stimulus policies diminishes. “You can think of it as insecure stability,” Richard Clarida, Pimco’s global strategic adviser, said in […]
The Bulls Don’t Have What It Takes To Move Market Higher The Big Q: Who is running this game? $DIA The Dow Jones and the general stock market look weaker by the day. Friday, for the 1st time since October 2008 a Dow Jones’ 52Wk High expired after its 52 weeks passed it by. […]
Gold and Silver in a Stock Market Correction $DIA, $GLD, $SLV When I last published this Bear’s Eye View of the DJIA a few weeks ago it appeared the US benchmark index would be making a new all-time high sometime in early May. On April 20th it was only 1.18% from last May’s BEV Zero, […]
Savvy Money Bets On Deep Stock Market Correction $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Carl Icahn is backing up his warning of “a day of reckoning” by shorting lots of stocks. Icahn warns that “a day of reckoning” was coming for American stock markets unless the federal government stimulates the economy with more spending aka QE. In […]
Thursday’s Technical Outlook for the DJIA (.DJI) $DIA, $DJI Thursday, US stocks ended the day sharply lower with the DJIA losing 113 points to close the day at 17,982.52, hit by poor earnings reports, and the fact that ECB’s Draghi ruled out “helicopter money” saying that policy makers have never considered start printing money. The Nasdaq […]
ECB’s Mario Draghi Ignores German Criticism of Loose Money Policy $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi ignored German criticism of the central bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy and vowing to use all the “tools” at his disposal for “as long as needed.” He said the ECB’s policy was working, which helped boost […]
Monetary Policy Has Done All It Can, More Fed QE Coming Monetary policy has done everything it can unless the Fed put additional QE into the US economic system . The Fed is not helping much in the sense that ultimately determines whether or not the nation getting an effect from the QE’s beyond increasing […]