US consumers’ inflation expectations deteriorated to their weakest levels since late Y 2017 in May, while their views on jobs and family finances grew less certain, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey published Monday. The weakening in inflation expectations may factor into Fed policymakers’ decision whether to lower interest rates in […]
$DIA, $SPY, $SOX, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX US household wealth marked a record in Q-1 as the stock market rallied, supporting consumers after Fed interest-rate hikes and trade dispute shocked investors late last year. Net worth for households and non-profit groups increased by $4.69-T, or 4.5%, to $108.6-T after a 3.7% drop in the prior frame, Federal […]
This month, the US economy has been growing for 10 years running, tying the record for the longest expansion ever. Many people, including journalists and policy makers, see this as a great achievement. “I see nothing to celebrate. On the contrary, I think they are measuring success the wrong way”, says Narayana Kocherlakota He says, […]
$SPY, $QQQ, $DIA US consumer spending surged 0.9% in March, the biggest gainer in about 10 years, as inflation pressures remain non-existent. The March gain was the biggest monthly increase since August 2009, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That is a big improvement after 3 months of lackluster readings in this Key segment of the economy. Consumer […]
President Trump’s economic adviser said the White House still backs Stephen Moore for a seat on the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, despite Democratic lawmakers’ concerns about his competence and questions over his past remarks. Sunday, Federal Board candidate Stephen Moore derided criticism of him as “character assassination” and a blatant “smear campaign.” In a […]
By Harvey Bezozi Most Americans this year will feel the effect of the new tax law, in one way or another, on their personal financial positions. Some will benefit thanks to lower tax rates, higher alternative minimum tax (AMT) exemptions, and increased deductions. Others will be penalized due to the new restrictions on state and […]
FLASH: US consumer sentiment rose by more than expected as optimism picked up for incomes and the economy, suggesting support for growth in coming months. The University of Michigan’s (MSI) preliminary March sentiment index advanced to 97.8, the highest this year, compared with the median forecast of 95.6 in a Bloomberg survey of economists, according to […]
FLASH: Speculative-grade bond yields have retraced nearly all of Y 2018’s selloff This action is the latest sign that investors have returned to the market with a after fleeing for safer asset classes at the end of Y 2018. Here is how the market has been acting since 31 December, as follows; Investors have been […]
$RACE, $AMZN, $MSFT, Ferrari (NYSE:RACE) ran a victory lap to be awarded the title of the world’s strongest brand, according to a new survey. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) remains the world’s most valuable brand, and there has been a strong performance from Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT). The survey comes from the Brand Finance Global 500 for Y 2019, which measures the […]
$CSX, $UNP, $NSC The economy looks strong to the major freight railroads that haul the products and raw materials companies rely on, but the lingering trade disputes might derail business if they continue. Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP) and CSX (NASDAQ:CSX) railroads both sounded optimistic about the economy when they reported hauling 3% more carloads of freight in Q-4. […]
Silver to Gold Ratio Points to Over-sized Profits Coming to Silver $SLV, $GLD, $DIA I last wrote an article on Friday November 9th as the Dow Jones closed with a value of -3.13% in the BEV chart below. Three Friday’s later and the Dow Jones closed today with a value of -4.81%. Not much of a […]
Dow Jones’ Earnings are at Record Highs Vs the Price of Gold $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $GLD, $SLV The DJIA is seeing action, on Wednesday, the day after the mid-term elections it advanced by 2.13% from its prior day’s closing price, it was the 4th day of extreme volatility since early October. Everyone was happy about […]
US Consumer Sentiment on Track for Best Year Since 2000 Consumers ready to Pick Up Spending Heading into Holiday Season US consumers have greater certainty about job and income prospects. University of Michigan’s (MSI) consumer sentiment index flat to unchanged but remains strong US consumer sentiment topped analysts expectations to stay on track for its best […]
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) There is No Clear Evidence that 2018 Production is ‘Sold Out” $TSLA There is no evidence that Y 2018 production has sold out. Norway registrations continue to deteriorate. LIBOR rates are rising again in Q-4. Tesla is a Trap! It has been almost weeks since Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported its Q-3 earnings, sending the […]
President Trump Sees a 10% Tax Cut for Middle-income Americans President Donald Trump, speaking to reporters at the White House as he left on a campaign trip to Texas, said Monday his Administration planned to produce a resolution within two weeks calling for a 10% tax cut for middle-income people. “We are putting in a […]
Emerging Market Rout Approaching Bottom $USD, $AUD, $NZD Franklin Templeton Investments says the rout in emerging markets may be nearing a bottom, but says that there are still countries like the Philippines that will suffer. Given the uncertainty, the money manager is keeping a net neutral USD position, while making trades including shorting the Philippine […]
US Household Incomes Rise for 3rd Year Running The median US household income rose for a 3rd year running in Y 2017 and the poverty rate declined further, government data showed on Wednesday. The Census Bureau says incomes for a typical household, adjusted for inflation, rose 1.8%, from $60,309 in Y 2016 to $61,372. The Census Bureau […]
Americans are Optimistic About the Future $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Economists say the country is close to full employment, but pay gains for American workers have been flat since Y 2015. Even last week’s upward blip in wage growth could be wiped out by inflation. Yet Americans have not been this optimistic about future […]
MAGA Effect:Household Income Spikes US median household income is at all-time highs US median household income has risen more than 4% since President Donald Trump took office on the overall strong economic growth and robust optimism. Inflation-adjusted median household incomes in July hit $62,450, according to the latest release from Sentier Research. “That’s the highest level […]
Global Stock Dividends Rise 13% to Record High $497-B It is a Golden Age for Dividend Investing Global stock dividend payouts have risen 13% in the three months to the end of June, hitting a new record high of $497 billion, according to the Janus Henderson Global Dividend Index. Dividends rose across the globe, with […]
American’s Taxes Should the Dems Take the Congress This November Republicans will make the historic Trump tax overhaul that slashed taxes 1 of their Key campaign selling points ahead of November elections. Democrats on the other hand are talking about how they want to undo it. In their bid to retake control of Congress, many […]
US Retail Sales Strong in 2018 $M, $WMT, $COST, $USO NRF Lifts 2018 Retail Sales Forecast on Strong Job Market, Tax Reform The National Retail Federation on Monday raised its US retail sales forecast for Y 2018, citing higher wages, gains in disposable income and a strong job market that have boosted consumer spending. The […]
Mental Health Issues Cost the US Economy Billions Mental health days are costing the US economy billions in income growth, and that number is expected to increase dramatically over the next few years, according to a June study published in the Review of Regional Studies. Drawing upon economic and demographic data from between Ys 2008 and 2014, […]
What People Buy Can Accurately Predict Who They Are $AAPL The cultural divide is real, it is wide Fact: What people buy can be used to predict their politics, race or education, sometimes with more than 90% accuracy Americans live such different lives that what they buy, do or watch can be used to predict […]
American Households Feel “Really Good” About President Trump’s Tax Reform President Trump is polling an average of 50% approval this week. In SurveyMonkey polls conducted from 12 February to 5 March, a majority of people in these Key states support President Trump’s Tax Plan: Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, & Ohio. Plus 50% or more of voters in 10 […]
Ferrari’s (NYSE:RACE) F1 Budget Tops $570-M $RACE Ferrari (NYSE:RACE) is F1 auto racing’s most famous team and as such has the biggest racing budget. But, in the Maranello outfit’s latest financial statements contain the revelation that its research and development costs are actually reversing. In the past Ferrari’s finances were private. This started to change in […]
President Trump’s Tax Reform has Consumer Sentiment Jumps at 14-Yr Highs US consumer sentiment in March unexpectedly jumped to a 14-year highs after tax cuts boosted disposable incomes, while new tariffs boosted inflation expectations and dimmed the outlook, a University of Michigan (MSI) survey showed Friday. Highlights of Michigan Sentiment (March, Preliminary) Sentiment index rose to […]
President Trump Seeks to Make Personal Income Tax Cut Permanent The Trump Administration and Republicans in Congress are seeking to make temporary personal income tax cuts passed last year permanent, White House spokesman Raj Shah said Thursday, adding they could also lower capital gains tax rates. Mr. Shah said details were still being worked out […]
US Household Household Wealth is “at pretty dizzying levels right now” $DIA, $SPY, $JPM Americans’ wealth rose more than $2-T in Q-4 of last year, pushing further into record territory, thanks to The Trump Bull Market and rising property prices, data from the Fed showed Thursday. According to the Quarterly Fed report, household net worth, […]
Highlights of Michigan Sentiment Indicator for October Consumer Sentiment climbed in October to the highest mark since the start of Y 2004 as US households grew upbeat about the outlook for the US economy, a University of Michigan (MSI) survey showed Friday. Highlights of Michigan Sentiment (October, final) Sentiment index rose to 100.7 (matching est.) […]
US Seeing Highest Spending Since 2009 Stimulus Real federal spending in FY 2017 was the 2nd highest in the history of the United States, topped only by Y 2009, when former president Barack Hussein Obama’s $840-B stimulus law was enacted according to reports. Fiscal Year (FY) 2017 also saw the 2nd highest real federal individual […]
Most Americans Worse Off Than Before Great Recession Newly released income and wealth data from the Federal Reserve Board’s triennial Survey of Consumer Finances show that America’s richest families enjoyed gains in income and net worth over the last decade. The Big Q: Not part of the Top 10%? The Big A: Then your income probably fell. […]
American’s With Foreign Accounts, Listen Up If the total balance of your foreign financial accounts exceeds $10,000 at any time during a calendar year, then you must file an “FBAR” (FinCEN Form 114, Annual Report of Foreign Bank and Financial Accounts) with the US government for that year. An FBAR for a given year is […]
June US Consumer Spending Near 9-Yr Highs Consumer spending in the US rose was $103 a day in June, the best performance for the month since Y 2008, according to a survey by Gallup. The daily spending in May was $104. Americans’ reported daily spending has averaged $100 or more since February, the longest stretch of […]
Education & Skills Key to Improving Jobs Prospects Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said Tuesday that investments in education and skills training are vital to address persistently high unemployment among lower-income and minority communities. “Education levels have historically lagged in low- and moderate-income communities, particularly communities of color,” Ms. Yellen said in remarks on workforce development […]
Focus on the “Mind-blowing” Opportunities of the US Economy The $60-B Scottish Fund managed owned by Aegon NV is ignoring talk of a rise in protectionism/populism under US President Donald Trump to focus on the “mind-blowing” opportunities of the world’s biggest economy, the US is a “huge market.” The firm has virtually no assets under […]
American’s Financial Expectations at Odds with Reality A new survey finds our expectations at odds with the financial reality of today’s retirees Setting a retirement savings goal can feel like a crap shoot. How can you calculate your expenses, especially for health care, five, 10, 50 years from now? If you’ve punted, you have company. […]
IRS Tax Refund Delay to Weigh on Consumer Spending Legislation aimed at preventing fraud is delaying US federal tax refunds and is likely to hurt consumer spending by as much as $21-B this month. The provision in the Protecting Americans from Tax Hikes Act passed by Congress near the end of Y 2015 will postpone funds […]
Wall Street Expects to Post Huge Q-4 Returns $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Wall Street firms are expected to post the biggest Q-4 win since the financial crisis as the US election triggered global markets activity from government bonds to currencies. Fixed-income and stock-trading revenue at the 5 biggest U.S investment banks rose 20% from a […]
Feel Good, Strive to Make This World a Happier Place True happiness opens our minds, broadens our awareness of the world and allowing us to become more in tune with the needs of others. Strong relationships and good health are Key factors in the realm of happiness, but low income can be a hindrance to […]
Stress, the Hidden Factor in the Longevity Gap A new analysis from the Hamilton Project released last Tuesday reveals that Biomarkers* of stress have risen much more rapidly for low-income people than for high-income ones. The most recent data show that life expectancy of Americans declined in Y 2015, these statistics are not broken down […]
The Trump Rally Can Extend Into 2017 $SPY It is looking likely that President Elect Donald Trump will preside over a continuing US expansion that could take its place as the longest among American business cycles, there are industry experts that predict that by the time Donald Trump takes office in January, the S&P 500 […]
Americans Are Renouncing Citizenship Over FATCA Tax Law, Not Donald Trump The number of individuals who renounced their US citizenship for Q-3 of Y 2016 was the 2nd-highest in history at 1,380, US Treasury Department reported. The Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA), which enacted in Y 2010, and took years to implement, is “having […]
US Long Dated Treasuries Up Signaling Rising Inflation $SPY Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential race is driving mutual fund managers out of dividend stocks and into the shares of financial, industrial and materials companies that benefit from rising inflation. Although inflation remains subdued by most measures, US longer-dated Treasury yields rose Thursday to […]
Barack Obamacare, the Theft of Middle Class “Wealth” $CI Barack Obamacare may have brought health insurance to millions of people in the US, many in the program finding that the medical care they need is too expensive to actually use. Many people with Barack Obamacare have plans that feature high out-of-pocket up front costs that […]
UAE has ‘No Plans’ to Introduce Income Tax Projects in latest budget will not rely on new taxes or additional fees, finance ministry said The UAE has no plans to impose new taxes on individuals and the government is not studying the introduction of more fees for services, Younis al-Khouri, under-secretary at the finance ministry, […]
Obama’s Description of His Legacy is Excessively Charitable to Himself US President Barack Hussein Obama recently celebrated the 7th anni of the passage of the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act, or as most Americans likely remember it, the $830-M stimulus package. The benefits of the stimulus are up for debate, but Mr. Obama is absolutely […]
US Jobs Growth Slowed in September, Fed Very Cautious Now US employment growth slowed for the 3rd month in September and the jobless rate rose, which could make the Federal Reserve more cautious about raising interest rates. Nonfarm payrolls rose 156,000, down from a gain of 167,000 jobs in August, the US Labor Department said […]
Donald Trump Expected to File Federal Income Taxes This Month Donald Trump has the opportunity to change the negative narrative on his taxes, that being to release his Y 2015 federal tax return. Recall, that after the 1st Presidential debate with Hillary Clinton, he said his “current returns will be released as soon as they’re […]
The IRS has a Special Audit Squad for the Rich Saturday was the 1st day of Q-4, a time of financial reckoning, when businesses move to make quotas and reach year-end targets. Corporations and individuals alike rush to cut the income tax they will need to pay next year. Last year the IRS collected $6.3-B […]
Medical Marijuana Update The governors of Delaware and New Jersey sign medical marijuana expansion bills, casino magnate Sheldon Adelson kicks in a million bucks to fend off medical cannabis in Florida, Montana patients are losing access to providers, and more. National Monday, a study of fatal car crashes found medical marijuana may curb opioid use. […]
Medical Marijuana Update As all eyes turn toward cannabis legalization initiatives looming in November, it’s been pretty quiet on the medical marijuana front. At least there’s good news from Michigan. Michigan Last Thursday, the Senate passed an industry regulation bill allowing dispensaries. The state Senate Thursday passed a bill that would tax and regulate medical marijuana […]
Personal Income, Wages, Salaries, Savings Advanced in July $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US consumer spending increased for a fourth straight month in July amid strong demand for automobiles, pointing to a pickup in economic growth that could pave the way for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year. The Commerce Department said Monday […]
The Truth & Consequences of Breaking the $35oz Gold Peg $GLD, $SLV, $DIA, $SPY Since July 8th, the DJIA (Dow Jones) has seen only one day where it closed more than 1.50% from its last all-time high (Aug 2nd: -1.51%). Since then the Dow Jones has also seen 9 new all-time highs, 7 of them […]
Home Ownership is Out of Reach for Majority of Californians Less than 33% of California residents earn enough money to afford the cost of a Golden State home. Lower interest rates failed to offset strong seasonal price increases, making it harder for Californians to purchase a home in Q-2 of Y 2016, the California Association […]
The Week Ahead on Wall Street $PFE, $PG Earnings season continues with 119 S&P 500 companies reporting. Included in this group are DJIA components Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) and Proctor & Gamble Co. (NYSE:PG), which will both report Tuesday. Economic Reports The week’s 1st economic reports to Wall Street will be the July purchasing manager’s manufacturing index (PMI), the […]
The Policy Maker’s Peculiar Institution $DIA, $GLD, $SLV Two weeks ago the Dow Jones made seven consecutive new all-time highs. Since then the market has been digesting these new BEV Zeros, with the Dow closing never more than 1.00% from its last all-time high. Are there more BEV Zeros to come? Could be, but I […]
BOJ to Boost Stimulus for Stagnant Economy Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced plans Wednesday for more than JPY 28-T ($265-B) in economic stimulus in an effort to prop up the nation’s stagnant economy. The plan will includeJPY 13-T in “fiscal measures,” he said in excerpts of a speech broadcast by NHK public television. Mr. […]
American’s are Almost as Wealthy as Ever, it is Scary Americans are about as wealthy as they have ever been and that is worrying monetary officials. They are concerned that the growing wealth could prove unsustainable because it has outstripped the growth of the economy since the Great Recession’s storied end in Y 2009. A […]
The US “Earnings Recession” is Not Registering with Investors $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The US earnings recession should be dampening the 7-year-old Bull Market, but it is not registering with investors. Quarterly profits in the S&P 500 Index are about to fall yet again, extending a streak of declines poised to match the longest earnings […]
China: Deep Pockets and Digital Trends Drive Consumption For foreign companies targeting the deep pockets of China’s growing middle class, understanding demand and consumption habits are Key. The future of consumption in China is digital, consumer-driven and aided by safe and secure mobile payment systems, according to attendees of the 3-day annual World Economic Forum […]
The Week Ahead on Wall Street $NKE, $GIS, $CAG, $MU Earnings results from Q-2’s early reporters will be released to Wall Street this week with 10 members of the S&P 500 on tap. They are NIKE (NYSE:NKE)Tuesday, Acuity Brands (NYSE AYI), General Mills (NYSE:GIS) and Monsanto (NYSE:MON) Wednesday; and ConAgra Foods (NYSE:CAG), Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ), Darden […]
The Big Q: Why are Americans so Angry at Barack Hussein Obama II? Americans are angry at the political establishment, both Republican and Democrat. Many are now in the “camp” of Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump and others in the “camp” Democrat disrupted Bernie Sanders, who have framed powerful indictments of the political and economic status quo, […]
America’s Largest Companies Outsource Freight Shipments $JBHR, $YRCW, $ODFL, $USAT A LaneAxis Virtual Freight Management study of the nation’s top 50 Carriers, as ranked by Transportation Topics showed the 13 biggest public companies outsource an average of 42.29% of their freight shipments. This figure is based on the percentage of total revenue those carriers spent […]
The Social and Economic Impact of Living Longer The Big Q: Would you do things differently if you expected to live a healthy, longer life? The Big A: Likely your answer is Yes, and you would value your time, organize it differently because there would be more of it. Most people think about what they […]
US Consumer Spending, Residential Investment Driving a Weak Economy $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The demand side of the US GDP accounts shows that the nations economic engine has 6 cylinders, they are: consumer spending residential investment capital spending inventories net exports government spending. In recent Quarters, it seems like most of the US economy’s power […]
South Korea’s Household Consumption Falling Private (household) consumption in South Korea fell in Q-1 on lower household income, a government report revealed Friday. Monthly private consumption averaged 2,669,000 Won (US$2,262) per household during the January-March period, up 0.6% from the same frame last year, according to Statistics Korea. Real private consumption, adjusted for inflation, declined […]
Summer Investment Strategy, Play Defense $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX As we enter this Summer trading season the big Wall Street traders head to The Hampton’s to vacation their trading positions laid out and staked. This year we are dealing with sluggish trading season, and an all but stalled global economy too. Notably, Eurozone business growth […]
Over 60% of American Families Have No Retirement Plans Since voluntary savings plans led by 401(k)s have largely replaced traditional pensions, it is no surprise that this is the “best of times” for many highly paid America workers. It is the “worst of times” for almost everyone else in the nation, especially the 42% of […]
Investors Losing Billions on Central Bank Monetary Policy $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Investors are losing billions a year from central banks that have set interest rates below Zero in an effort to stimulate economic growth by punishing saving and encouraging lending. Negative-yielding government bonds cost investors about $24-B a year, according to calculations from Fitch […]
Richest Live 14.6 Yrs Longer, the Gap Is Widening I recently ran across a Stanford University study that analyzed 1.4-B US federal tax returns along with Social Security mortality data to determine the relationship of income to life expectancy. Here are the Key findings. 1st, higher income is associated with greater longevity. Among men, the […]
Americans Confidence on Economy Dives to Lowest Mark in a Year $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX, $AAPL Notable 1: For the vast majority of Americans, the “Dream” of a better life was lost in the early 1970’s. Notable 2: Apple Inc. (AAPL) -NasdaqGS 104.35 Down 0.73(0.69%) 4:00p EDT After Hours : 96.10 Down 8.25 (7.91%) 7:59p EDT Americans’ confidence […]