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Wednesday, December 1, 2021

When Will Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Price Correct After Biggest Rally of 2019?

When Will Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Price Correct After Biggest Rally of 2019?

Starting on April 2nd, 2019, Bitcoin took off on a rocket toward $5,000 and never looked back. Since then, the first ever cryptocurrency has revived the bull market by breaking back above $6,000 without a second thought, smashing through $7,000, and reaching above $8,000 where it is currently taking a pit stop.

From the start of the rally, Bitcoin has corrected on average only about 8% at each dip, despite doubling in value in less than 45 days.

Crypto speculators believe that the rally is due to a combination of strategic actors or whales, institutional interest finally hitting the market, sidelined money waiting for the bottom reentering, trade tensions and economic turmoil brewing, and a resurgence of retail buying as is indicated by the Coinbase app topping the iPhone app store trending list.

The relative scarcity of the asset and the upcoming halving are also said to have a significant effect on the price of the asset leading up to the event. Each halving reduces the block reward awarded to Bitcoin miners for securing the network. After the next halving, the number of Bitcoins that miners receive will drop from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC.

Bitcoin is currently experiencing yet another pullback within the 8% range it has followed since the rally first kicked off. Sooner or later, the price of Bitcoin is bound to correct, however, it may not happen as soon as most cryptocurrency investors are expecting, and according to some, may not happen at all.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 6,040.28.

The projected upper bound is: 8,614.26.

The projected lower bound is: 7,234.55.

The projected closing price is: 7,924.41.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 34 white candles and 16 black candles for a net of 18 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 72.8276. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 75.88. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 23 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 86. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 180.660 at 7,847.660. Volume was 83% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 308% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
7,680.7307,958.6407,654.5607,847.660 12,019

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 7,149.18 5,558.93 4,453.58
Volatility: 88 76 73
Volume: 85,471 77,414 76,217

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 76.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into BTC= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that BTC= is currently in an overbought condition.

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