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Australian Dollar Outlook
The Australian Dollar US Dollar exchange rate is advancing for a second straight session on Thursday. The pair settled just shy of 1% higher in the previous session, at US$0.7282. At 13:15 UTC, AUD/USD trades +0.2% at US$0.73, at the high of the day.
The US Dollar is under pressure after US jobless claims remained unchanged at 884,000. Analysts had been expecting claims to fall to 846,000. Last week the number of people filing for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since the covid crisis started.
Whilst today’s figure is well down from the 6.8 million claims recorded in March, redundancies are still persistent across sectors and industries. The figures come after yesterday’s JOLTS data showed that job vacancies rose to 6.6 million in July but the pace of hiring fell.
Recent US data has indicted that as the US economy reopens and Americans are starting spending again and there are signs of economic recovery. However, the recovery is slow and the scars are deep as the economy attempt to recover from a -31.7% contraction in the second quarter.
There is no more US economic data due today. Investors will look ahead to US inflation figures due tomorrow.
The Australian Dollar is benefiting from the weaker US counterpart. Domestic new from Australia was less supportive of the Aussie Dollar, keeping the currency depressed for most of the session.
Lockdown restrictions in Melbourne, Australia’s second largest city were extended, a move which could hamper Australia’s economic recovery. The new proposed plan out of lockdown would see Melbourne free of restrictions in late November, if no new infections are recorded in the two weeks ahead of the 23rd November date.
The economic impact of the lockdown extension could be acute, especially as Victoria state accounts for approximately 25% of the national economy.
AUD/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
AUD/US Dollar FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 0.74.
The projected lower bound is: 0.72.
The projected closing price is: 0.73.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 30 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 10 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 57.7938. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 55.25. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -26. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed up 0.002 at 0.727. Volume was 80% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 18% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 0.725 0.727 0.725 0.727 17,320
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bearish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 0.73 0.72 0.68 Volatility: 10 10 15 Volume: 75,240 81,357 81,529
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 7.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.