Weak Construction Report Weighing on Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X)
The week has started on a down note, as Australia’s AIG Construction Index dropped to 42.6 in September, down from 44.6 a month earlier. The index has been mired in contraction territory (below the 50-level) for 13 successive months, as the construction sector continues to struggle. On Tuesday, we’ll get a look at business and consumer confidence data, so traders should be prepared for stronger movement from AUD/USD.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The line of 0.6760 remains relevant. AUD/USD broke above this line late last week but has since retracted back below this line. It could test this level during the Monday session. Above, we have resistance at the round number of 68.00. On the downside, 0.6710 is providing support. Below, 0.6665 is a major support level.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.68.
The projected upper bound is: 0.68.
The projected lower bound is: 0.66.
The projected closing price is: 0.67.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 5 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 72.9230. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.33. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 42 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -50. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.004 at 0.673. Volume was 23% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 11% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.677 0.677 0.673 0.673 54,307
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.67 0.68 0.70
Volatility: 9 8 9
Volume: 62,508 70,254 85,970
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 3.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.
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