Virus Epidemics Have Limited Lifespans, This 1 is Over

Virus Epidemics Have Limited Lifespans, This 1 is Over

#virus #epidemics #lifespan #CDC #C19coronavirus

A fortunate characteristic of virus epidemics is they have limited lifespans.  No one knows why, but guesses include herd immunity and mutations of the virus.

The following graph from the Centers for Disease Control and the National Center for Health Statistics (CDC) shows the time profile of the C-19 weekly death counts from February onward.  

In the US The China Virus got underway in March.  For the wk ending 14 March, the total number of deaths associated with it nationwide was 52.  During the following month, the number of deaths increased rapidly, peaking in the wk ending 18 April at a count of 17,026.

From that time onward, the death count declined rapidly to a weekly number of 3,684 in late June.  A ‘2nd wave’ began in July.  The Top of that wave was 6,794 deaths during the wk ending 25 July.  After that, a steeper decline commenced and accelerated

The peak death count for Americans under age 25 was 28 for the wk ending 11 April and has been under that number since.  Only a 1 death occurred in that age group during the latest reported wk, and there were no deaths recorded in the 25–34 age group.

Virus epidemics behave differently from all other diseases.  If you graphed timelines of the number of cancer deaths, fatal heart attacks, and fatal strokes, those timelines are flat.

Virus epidemics have short time profiles, like what we are seeing with C-19.  

There is nothing unusual about the fact that the coronavirus death count is dying a natural death.  That should have been anticipated, and it should now be widely publicized.  

The Big Q: Why are people pretending not to know this good news?  

These facts are easy to learn, so, we should to be celebrating like we did when WWII ended.

This C-19 death profile is extremely significant yet is almost totally ignored by the MSM.  Their focus is on cases, not deaths.  The number of cases has not decreased as rapidly as the number of deaths.  Only a small percentage of cases end in death (the recovery rate is 99%+), and the death count is more important than the case count.  The case count will linger, but that problem is manageable.

The latest reported weekly death count a 29 August was 370.  That is from a population of 330-M people.  In a 1 wk, between 8 – 15 August, the number of deaths dropped 85% from 3,169 to 455.  

The C-19 death rate in the US is now about 1 per million and dropping like a hot rock.  Coronavirus related deaths are currently 50% the number of weekly vehicle fatalities.  

We are now seeing the ‘pandemic‘ in the rearview mirror.

Have a healthy weekend, Keep the Faith!

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, a polymath, excels, in diverse fields of knowledge Including Pattern Recognition Analysis in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange, and he it the author of "The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a highly regarded, weekly financial market commentary. He is a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to over a million cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognize Ebeling as an expert.