Valuing Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) Stock

Valuing Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) Stock

Valuing Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) Stock

At least when compared to FAANG stocks, BABA stock quietly sports a massive market cap, weighing in at roughly $480 billion. Unlike some blue-chip tech stocks, Alibaba doesn’t pay a dividend, but with its balance sheet, it could if management so chose.

Alibaba has almost $32 billion in cash and $33.5 billion in combined cash and short-term investments. Total current assets of ~$41 billion is almost twice its total current liabilities of $21.65 billion. Even though long-term debt stands at $19 billion, current assets of $114.3 billion should ease any financial worries over BABA stock considering it’s almost triple the $44.7 billion in total liabilities.

If any worries do exist about Alibaba’s financials, perhaps the company’s growth can take care of that. Current estimates call for a whopping 55% revenue increase in 2019 and another 35.5% jump in 2020. That easily outpaces BABA’s immediate peers, as well as its U.S.-based FAANG peers. Earnings growth is less impressive, but solid nonetheless. Estimates call for 15.6% improvement this year to $5.48 per share, while 2020 estimates call for an acceleration to ~23%.

That leaves BABA stock trading at 33.8 times earnings, which doesn’t exactly feel like a discount. On a forward basis, Alibaba stock trades at roughly 28x forward earnings. That’s actually slightly below its five-year average of 29x forward estimates. Ultimately, some investors will feel uncomfortable paying 34 times current earnings and that’s just the way it is.

Alibaba has various businesses in one of the world’s largest economies. While China is struggling through a dry patch economically, it’s anything but done growing. For this strong of revenue growth and solid earnings growth, many will flock to BABA stock – especially if its charts start to cooperate.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 195.73.

The projected lower bound is: 179.64.

The projected closing price is: 187.69.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 62.7618. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.65. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 33 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 68. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

ALIBABA GRP ADR closed up 1.910 at 187.290. Volume was 16% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 39% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
186.000 188.150 185.440 187.290 2,618,637

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 186.33 180.28 165.61
Volatility: 27 28 43
Volume: 2,614,161 2,700,665 3,973,721

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

ALIBABA GRP ADR is currently 13.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BABA.N at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BABA.N and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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