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Thursday, September 16, 2021

V-Shaped Recovery on Track, Bet the Market Not Economists

#GDP #economy #recovery #NFPs #AtlantaFed #C19Coronavirus


The Atlanta Federal Reserve increased its estimate of Q-3 GDP growth at 20.5%.

The revision by the Atlanta Fed’s ‘s GDPNow model reflects an increase in government spending growth partly offset by decreases in personal consumption expenditures growth and gross private domestic investment growth.

The estimates came in after the US government said employment growth slowed in July, underscoring the need for additional government aid/relief/stimulus to bolster the nation’s V-shaped economic recovery. President Trump vowed that since the Democrats will no act he will by Executive Order very soon.

NFPs increased by 1.763-M jobs last month after a record rise of 4.791-M in June excluding government employment.

Pessimistic economist see slowing employment growth as a challenge to the US stock market’s expectation of a V-shaped recovery. The S&P 500 index is up 50% from its March lows, and investor are betting on the V-shaped recovery, as the rally extends.

Bet the Market, Never wrong, Do Not Bet Economists, Always wrong.

My case for the V is based on the fact the number of new C-19 coronavirus deaths is falling dramatically, and has peaked. As that trend remains in place, the US economy will continue to move toward a full economic recovery this year.

Friday, the major US stock market indexes finished at: DJIA +46.50 at 27433.48, NAS Comp -97.09 to 11011.05, S&P 500 +2.12 at 3351.28

Volume: Trade on the NYSE came in at 808-M/shares exchanged.

  • NYSE +22.7% YTD
  • S&P 500 +3.7% YTD
  • DJIA -3.9% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -6.0% YTD

HeffX-LTN’s overall technical analysis for the major US stock market indexes is Very Bullish at the week ended 7 August 2020, the best start to August since Y 2009.

Looking Ahead: Investors will receive the JOLTS – Job Opening report for June Monday

Have a healthy weekend, Keep the Faith!

Paul Ebeling
Paul A. Ebeling, a polymath, excels, in diverse fields of knowledge Including Pattern Recognition Analysis in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange, and he is the author of "The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a highly regarded, weekly financial market commentary. He is a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to over a million cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognize Ebeling as an expert.   

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