USD/JPY (JPY=X) Trade worries dent stocks, yuan steadies

USD/JPY (JPY=X) Trade worries dent stocks, yuan steadies

USD/JPY (JPY=X) Trade worries dent stocks, yuan steadies

  • USD/JPY is quiet during the North American holiday session.
  • Some ECB members site the end of 2019 too late for a rate hike.

USD/JPY is quiet during the North American holiday session, having entered the shift flat at 110.50, continuing the bullish reversal towards 110.60. However, there has been a slight give back in the dollar that had otherwise picked up the Chinese headlines bid with EUR/USD popping 20 pips on less dovish ECB noise.

There is chat on the street going around in times of low liquidity that some ECB members site the end of 2019 too late for a rate hike. Bloomberg came with the news and was citing ECB sources:

Some ECB members are said to be uneasy that Sept/Oct 2019 rate hike is too late.
Some ECB policymakers are uneasy that markets don’t see a hike until Dec 2019.

Major currencies were treading water as traders fretted about the fallout of the intensifying trade frictions between Washington and the rest of the world.

The euro was off by 0.1 percent at $1.16450 while the dollar was good for 110.52 yen, down 0.1 percent.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 111.57.

The projected lower bound is: 109.43.

The projected closing price is: 110.50.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 68.5060. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 55.42. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 30 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 34. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.100 at 110.480. Volume was 4% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 48% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
110.580 110.620 110.260 110.480 101,760

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 110.31 109.90 110.16
Volatility: 4 6 8
Volume: 104,333 97,820 105,859

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods.

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