USD/JPY (JPY=X) still finding its way amid trade war jitters

USD/JPY (JPY=X) still finding its way amid trade war jitters

USD/JPY (JPY=X) still finding its way amid trade war jitters

Moves have been light, but the yen is benefiting at least from the trade tensions between US and China from Friday. The tit-for-tat battle between the two is making for some poor performances in Asian equities and US yields are also a little lower – both supportive of a stronger yen.
But despite all the blow up on the trade rhetoric, USD/JPY is still yet to truly “break out”.
The pair still sits above 110.00, but continues to struggle in finding out which direction the next move should be. To the upside, price is capped by the 61.8 retracement and the November low near 110.85 – and just above, there is also the resistance trendline acting as a further impediment for buyers.
To the downside, the 200-day MA @ 110.25 and the 110.00 figure level has been good levels for buyers to hold above as sellers find it difficult to drive the pair below that.
Looking at how the pair performed last week, the trade would be to go for a break on either side of those – since the trade rhetoric can only play out in one of two ways.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 111.73.

The projected lower bound is: 109.40.

The projected closing price is: 110.56.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 80.1371. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 59.39. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 18 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 94. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.170 at 110.490. Volume was 42% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 21% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
110.660 110.740 110.290 110.490 62,660

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 110.16 109.27 110.23
Volatility: 5 7 8
Volume: 96,451 99,861 105,476

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 0.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods.

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