USD/JPY (JPY=X) Consolidating

USD/JPY (JPY=X) Consolidating

USD/JPY (JPY=X) Consolidating

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Short term: Prices are moving.

Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 111.70.

The projected upper bound is: 110.28.

The projected lower bound is: 107.52.

The projected closing price is: 108.90.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.

An engulfing bearish line occurred (where a black candle’s real body completely contains the previous white candle’s real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.

If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX JPY=), it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 20.5992. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 26.80. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -149.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 20 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.430 at 108.960. Volume was 51% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 66% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
109.400 109.760 108.900 108.960 48,635

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 110.29 112.05 111.76
Volatility: 9 8 9
Volume: 107,396 95,963 103,855

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 2.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that JPY= is currently in an oversold condition. The security price has set a new 14-period low while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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