USD/GBP (GBP=X) retracing to 1.3100 resistance after bouncing from new 2018 low
- Cable drops to new 8mth low of 1.3050
- Little progress on Brexit expected at EU summit
- Ireland to start preparing for unlikely scenario of no deal
- Receding BoE expectations also weighing on pound
The pound fell to its lowest since early November on Thursday as investors fretted that a European Union summit would underline how there has been no meaningful progress for months in negotiations on a Brexit deal.
This lack of progress, combined with a series of corporate warnings this week about the effect on Britain’s economy if a deal is not agreed soon, has weighed heavily on sterling and lowered expectations of a Bank of England interest rate rise.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.34.
The projected upper bound is: 1.32.
The projected lower bound is: 1.29.
The projected closing price is: 1.31.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 11 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 8.5517. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 27.89. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -148.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX GBP= closed down -0.000 at 1.307. Volume was 96% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 6% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.308 1.309 1.307 1.307 6,922
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.32 1.34 1.36
Volatility: 7 7 9
Volume: 153,261 158,161 149,098
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX GBP= is currently 3.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of GBP= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that GBP= is currently in an oversold condition.
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