USD/EUR (EUR=X) below 1.20 for an extended period on ECB rate guidance

USD/EUR (EUR=X) below 1.20 for an extended period on ECB rate guidance

USD/EUR (EUR=X) below 1.20 for an extended period on ECB rate guidance

After today’s ECB meeting, analysts from Danske Bank explained that it is the new time dependent rate guidance that is key for the euro.

Key Quotes:

“A short-lived knee-jerk move higher in EUR/USD on the QE end-date announcement but this quickly more than reversed as the rate guidance was crucially reinforced and the press briefing kept the dovish tone. Indeed, for the FX market, we stress that it is the new time dependent rate guidance that is key for the euro: by keeping rate-hike expectations at bay, this effectively keeps the ECB from luring capital flows back to the eurozone near term – a factor we still believe holds EUR upside potential longer term.”

“Despite some evidence of flows turning less EUR negative recently, with both the Fed (via hikes and balance-sheet reduction) and the Treasury (via issuance) continually adding to the ‘carry appeal’ of USD, this underlines that relative rates will weigh on EUR/USD for some time still and avert a move back to the mid-1.20s any time soon.”

“We still look for the recent range (1.17 +/- a few big figures) to hold near term. It is likely we will need to get much closer to the first rate hike, which now cannot take place before September 2019 at the earliest, before seeing a sustained move above the 1.20 mark (our 12M target remains 1.25).”

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 1.17.

The projected lower bound is: 1.14.

The projected closing price is: 1.16.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.

An on-neck line occurred. This is a bearish pattern where prices should move lower when the white candlestick’s (i.e., the most recent) low is penetrated.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 12.3033. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 34.81. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -134.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed up 0.001 at 1.157. Volume was 96% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 10% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.157 1.158 1.156 1.157 4,914

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.17 1.19 1.20
Volatility: 13 9 9
Volume: 141,817 135,660 123,265

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX EUR= is currently 3.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

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