USD/CAD (CAD=X) steadies as investors take stock of BoC rate hike odds

USD/CAD (CAD=X) steadies as investors take stock of BoC rate hike odds

USD/CAD (CAD=X) steadies as investors take stock of BoC rate hike odds

The Canadian dollar was little changed against its broadly stronger U.S. counterpart on Tuesday but rose against some other major currencies as investors determined that a recent reduction in Bank of Canada interest rate hike bets had gone far enough.

The Canadian dollar was trading 0.1 percent lower at C$1.3312 to the greenback, or 75.12 U.S. cents.

The currency traded in a range of C$1.3281 to C$1.3329. On Friday, it touched its weakest level in a year at C$1.3384.

Expectations that the central bank will hike its benchmark rate, which sits at 1.25 percent, next month have been crimped by rising trade tensions and domestic data on Friday that showed weaker-than-expected retail sales and inflation.

Chances of an interest rate hike in July had sunk to less than 50 percent from about 70 percent before the data but recovered on Tuesday to be slightly better than a coin toss.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.30.

The projected upper bound is: 1.35.

The projected lower bound is: 1.32.

The projected closing price is: 1.33.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 34 white candles and 15 black candles for a net of 19 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 44.9541. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 69.45. This is not a topping or bottoming area. However, the RSI just crossed below 70 from a topping formation. This is a bearish sign. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 68. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX CAD= closed down -0.001 at 1.330. Volume was 96% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 47% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.330 1.331 1.329 1.330 3,659

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.33 1.30 1.27
Volatility: 7 8 9
Volume: 82,627 88,512 80,994

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX CAD= is currently 4.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into CAD= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on CAD= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods.

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