USD/CAD (CAD=X) Spikes Have Failed

USD/CAD (CAD=X) Spikes Have Failed

USD/CAD (CAD=X) Spikes Have Failed

The Canadian Dollar has been a much stronger performer in recent days, buoyed by the impressive gains in the Oil price the CAD has been able to hold its ground against the mighty Dollar.

A lack of US data has left the bulk of the attention on US trade policy, but despite a more hawkish Trump, the Loonie downside has definitely looked more subdued.

The RSI is now back below 70 and the bullishly aligned DMI’s are no longer widening.

The 9 day MA (1.3289) has been broken and USDCAD is threatening the lower end of its two-week range in the mid/upper-1.32s.

Recent spikes in USDCAD have failed to meaningfully extend above key technical levels including the midpoint of the range from 2016 (1.3376) and the last major retracement (76.4%) of the May-Sept 2017 decline at 1.3384.

“Near-term support is expected in the area between 1.3250 and 1.3220, with additional support at 1.3150.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.30.

The projected upper bound is: 1.33.

The projected lower bound is: 1.30.

The projected closing price is: 1.32.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 33 white candles and 16 black candles for a net of 17 white candles.

A bullish harami occurred (where the current small white body is contained within an unusually large black body). During a downtrend this pattern implies an end to the decline as the bears appear to have exhausted themselves.

During an uptrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX CAD=) the bullish harami pattern is bearish as the bears appear to be gaining strength as the bulls weaken.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 5.1051. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 52.73. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -57. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX CAD= closed up 0.002 at 1.315. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 34% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.314 1.316 1.314 1.315 792

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.33 1.30 1.27
Volatility: 8 8 9
Volume: 86,895 89,367 81,527

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX CAD= is currently 3.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of CAD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on CAD= and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods.

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