USD/CAD (CAD=X) Heffx Weekly Outlook
USD/CAD rose further to 1.3381 last week but subsequent fall suggests temporary topping, ahead of 100% projection of 1.2246 to 1.3124 from 1.2526 at 1.3404. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Deeper pull back could be see to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.3190) and below. But downside should be contained above 1.2948 support to bring another rally. ON the upside, firm break of 1.3381 should target 1.3685 medium term fibonacci level next.
In the bigger picture, current development solidify the view of bullish trend reversal. That is fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. This will now be the preferred case as long as 1.2916 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pull back.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.29.
The projected upper bound is: 1.35.
The projected lower bound is: 1.31.
The projected closing price is: 1.33.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 33 white candles and 16 black candles for a net of 17 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 82.8161. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 68.27. This is not a topping or bottoming area. However, the RSI just crossed below 70 from a topping formation. This is a bearish sign. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 101.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX CAD= closed down -0.004 at 1.327. Volume was 2% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 35% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.331 1.338 1.326 1.327 94,552
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.32 1.29 1.27
Volatility: 7 8 9
Volume: 92,108 90,050 81,186
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX CAD= is currently 4.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into CAD= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on CAD= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.