USD/CAD (CAD=X) Canadian Dollar Trump-ed
Dollar/CAD closed a turbulent week on the upside as trade concerns and the Fed pushed the greenback higher. What’s next? Canadian retail sales and inflation on Friday stand out.
US President Trump and Canadian PM Trudeau clashed in the G-7 Summit that was disastrous and ended without a communique. That sent the pair higher. Later in the week, US inflation accelerated and retail sales beat expectations. The Fed not only raised rates but also signaled two additional increases and sent a very optimistic message. The US dollar continued forward and trade concerns gave a boost to the pair later in the week when the US imposed tariffs on China. All in all, there is a lot to worry about for Canada and a lot going in favor of the USD.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
We start from higher ground this time. 1.3560 capped the pair back in May 2017 and is a high point. 1.3360 heled the pair down on an attempt to recover in June 2017. 1.3205 is the close level on June 15th this year.
1.3125 is the high point for 2018 until it was broken. 1.3065 was the high point in May and also earlier in the year.
1.30 is a round number that is eyed by many. 1.2920 capped the pair in late April and early May as well. 1.2820 served as support in early May.
1.2730 was a swing low seen mid-May. It is followed by 1.2690 which was a swing high back in February. Further down, 1.2615 and 1.2535 where the top and bottom of a range seen in early April.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.28.
The projected upper bound is: 1.34.
The projected lower bound is: 1.31.
The projected closing price is: 1.32.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 32 white candles and 17 black candles for a net of 15 white candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 94.5041. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 68.91. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 65 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 219.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX CAD= closed up 0.001 at 1.321. Volume was 39% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 4% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.319 1.324 1.316 1.321 56,540
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.30 1.29 1.27
Volatility: 7 8 9
Volume: 90,066 89,153 80,676
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX CAD= is currently 4.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into CAD= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on CAD= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.
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