Bitcoin Overwhelmingly Bearish

Bitcoin Overwhelmingly Bearish

Bitcoin Overwhelmingly Bearish

  • Bitcoin price declined further and broke a key support at USD 6,300 against the US Dollar.
  • There was a break below a contracting triangle with support at $6,310 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair is currently under pressure and it remains at a risk of more losses below $6,200.

Bitcoin price started a short-term correction after trading toward the $6,280 level against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair moved a few points higher and traded above the $6,300 and $6,350 levels. However, the upside move was capped by the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the $6,720 high to $6,280 low. The price failed to move past the $6,400 and declined sharply.

The recent decline was such that the price broke the $6,280 low. More importantly, there was a break below a contracting triangle with support at $6,310 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. It opened the doors for more declines and the price cleared the $6,200 support. It is now trading well below the $6,500 pivot level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. A low was formed at $6,145 and the price is currently consolidating. An initial resistance is near the $6,280 level, which was a support earlier. Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last slide from the $6,399 high to $6,145 low is also near $6,290 to act as a resistance.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

The projected upper bound is: 6,794.04.

The projected lower bound is: 5,514.59.

The projected closing price is: 6,154.32.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 8 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 15.0041. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.75. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -90. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -169.530 at 6,182.250. Volume was 27% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 53% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
6,354.9906,390.0306,085.5906,182.250 53,272

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 6,525.46 6,813.67 9,159.30
Volatility: 41 60 120
Volume: 102,321 82,727 64,610

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 32.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.

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