Bitcoin dangerously close to 2018 low

Bitcoin dangerously close to 2018 low

USD/BTC (BTC=X) dangerously close to 2018 low

BTC/USD recovered from Tuesday losses to trade at $6,559, mostly unchanged since the start of the day. The digital coin No.1 lost over 4% on daily basis and touched the lowest level since the end of March ($6,450)

Speaking at WSJ CFO conference that took place in Washington on June 11-12, SEC Chairman Jay Clayton effectively declared that he wants to get all digital tokens under its regulatory oversight. He believes that changing a name from security to token doesn’t mean that the asset can be exempt from financial regulation. On the contrary, it should be scrutinized quite significantly.

“It made me unhappy that people thought that by calling it a #token it was somehow exempt from regulation. Let me be clear it does not,” he said.

While the regulation per se is not necessarily a bad thing, authorities are yet to come to grips with new realities and stop treating all digital assets in an indiscriminate way.

Bitcoin’s technical picture

From the intraday perspective, recovery attempts are likely to be capped by $6,700 and $6,740, which is 50 and 100-SMA (30-min chart) respectively. If this level is successfully passed, the upside may be extended towards the next local goal at $6,900 and to $7,000. The support is created by Tuesday low registered at $6,450. That’s where fresh buying interest is likely to appear. However, a sustainable movement lower may trigger panic selling.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 7,956.55.

The projected upper bound is: 7,178.27.

The projected lower bound is: 5,740.13.

The projected closing price is: 6,459.20.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 8 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 9.8824. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 26.34. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 127 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -156.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -15.530 at 6,517.790. Volume was 34% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 44% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
6,530.4106,670.7606,378.4406,517.790 40,021

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 7,228.01 8,230.23 9,820.37
Volatility: 69 56 128
Volume: 63,381 64,191 58,837

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 33.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 32 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that BTC= is currently in an oversold condition.

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