USD/AUD (AUD=X) tied to Chinese data and risk sentiment
- Chinese manufacturing growth slowed, could hit the AUD.
- AUD/USD strong resistance at 0.7440, upward chances increase beyond it.
The AUD/USD pair edged sharply higher on Friday and settled at 0.7407, anyway down weekly basis. The Aussie found support on a broadly weaker dollar, hit by profit-taking and the better performance of worldwide equities. Over the weekend, Chinese data came in softer-than-expected, as the official PMI showed that the growth in the manufacturing sector slowed in June, probably due to escalating trade tensions with the US.
The index came in at 51.5 from the previous 51.9. The non-manufacturing index for the same month, came in as expected at 55.0. In the meantime, the US is moving on with tariffs on Chinese goods and tariffs on $34 billion in goods should become effective this Friday.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.75.
The projected upper bound is: 0.75.
The projected lower bound is: 0.73.
The projected closing price is: 0.74.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 8 black candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 54.9999. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 41.74. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 38 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -23. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed unchanged at 0.740. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 66% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.739 0.741 0.738 0.740 1,685
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.74 0.75 0.77
Volatility: 9 10 9
Volume: 95,470 99,501 89,017
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 3.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of AUD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods.
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