USD/AUD (AUD=X) bewildered by Trump trade confusion
The Australian and New Zealand dollars flatlined on Tuesday as White House officials sowed confusion about their trade intentions toward China, leaving the market in a holding pattern for now.
The Aussie dollar was steady at $0.7411, after drawing bids around $0.7397 overnight. It had retreated from a top of $0.7443 on Tuesday on a report the Trump administration planned to restrict Chinese investment in U.S. technology.
President Donald Trump himself later denied the report, while administration officials offered conflicting signals on exactly what was planned.
“It’s been a very messy past 24 hours or so,” said David de Garis, a senior analyst at NAB.
“Endeavouring to work out the end game and winners/losers at this point in the war of words is premature,” he added. “But trade frictions and trade access with China in focus has rightly centred some renewed selling attention on the AUD.”
Australia is a major exporter of commodities to China, which makes its economy and currency vulnerable to any threat to free trade.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.76.
The projected upper bound is: 0.75.
The projected lower bound is: 0.73.
The projected closing price is: 0.74.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 18 white candles and 32 black candles for a net of 14 black candles.
A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 56.4355. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 36.86. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 35 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -63. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.000 at 0.739. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 63% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.739 0.739 0.739 0.739 1,353
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.74 0.75 0.77
Volatility: 10 10 9
Volume: 91,849 98,700 88,370
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 4.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of AUD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.
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