US Wage Gains Stalled Despite Robust Jobs Market, Strong Economy

US Wage Gains Stalled Despite Robust Jobs Market, Strong Economy

US Wage Gains Stalled Despite Robust Jobs Market, Strong Economy


  • The US Jobs Market is “Red Hot”

The ADP estimate of November private sector job gains was solid. The increases were across the board as most industries and all sizes of businesses added workers solidly. 

The 40,000 increase in manufacturing payrolls is the largest number in the history of this report.

Supporting the view that the labor market is strong and the only thing holding back even better job gains is the paucity of workers was the sharp rise in online want ads. 

The Conference Board reported that firms were looking for, or at least advertising for, a lot more workers in November than in October.

Again, this report indicated that the gains were spread across the nation and occupations.

With the upward revision to Q-3 GDP, it was expected that the already solid productivity gain would also go up, it did not

But, the real news in the report were the changes in compensation gain.

Hourly compensation was less than initially estimated and that led to a sharp downward revision to inflation-adjusted hourly compensation. The gainer over the Quarter was modest and over the year, real wages fell. That may have helped keep labor costs under control, but it did not do much for consumer spending power.

What it does need is tax reform.

Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist said Wednesday that:The job market is red hot, with broad-based job gains across industries and company sizes. … There is a mounting threat that the job market will overheat next year.” If you are an investor or a large firm or a high-income household or have a company in certain “chosen” industries, it is full steam ahead, and steady as she goes..

Wednesday, the US major stock market indexes finished at: DJIA -39.73 at 24140.91, NAS Comp +14.16 at 6776.36, S&P 500 -0.30 at 2629.27

Volume: Trade on the NYSE came in at: 801-M/shares exchanged

  • NAS Comp +25.9% YTD
  • DJIA +22.2% YTD
  • S&P 500 +17.4% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +11.2% YTD
HeffX-LTN Analysis for DIA: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Very Bullish (0.56) Bullish (0.28) Very Bullish (0.73) Very Bullish (0.67)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for SPY: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bullish (0.48) Bullish (0.43) Bullish (0.44) Very Bullish (0.58)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for QQQ: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bullish (0.48) Neutral (0.09) Very Bullish (0.69) Very Bullish (0.67)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for VXX: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bearish (-0.32) Neutral (-0.20) Bearish (-0.46) Bearish (-0.29)

Stay tuned…

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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