US Stock Market is Strong, Tune Out the Noise

US Stock Market is Strong, Tune Out the Noise

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX

The just released data of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau show that the US monthly international trade deficit decreased in January 2019 from $59.9% in December (revised) to $51.1-B as expected, as imports decreased and exports increased.

The goods deficit decreased $8.2-B in January to $73.3-B.

The services surplus increased $0.5-B in January to $22.1-B.

Of course, there is a lot of Noise in the data, but we may be coming to a point where trade is affected by expectations of a trade deal being done between the US and China.

Any US company that believes that a trade deal is likely may strive to limit imports from China for now in the hope that they will have a tariff cut in the future, which should make imports cheaper.

In that sense, the current trade tariffs reduce imports because anyone who thinks that trade tariffs will be reversed as part of a package of US concessions in any China trade deal.

For now .DXY is for now at around yesterday’s closing rate of 96.7410.

US equity futures are flat to Unchanged with a Bullish bias.

The MSM has been getting frothy about President Trump’s being expected nominee for the vacant seat at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Stephen Moore who said yesterday that the Fed should immediately reverse course and cut rates by half a percentage point, according to his interview with the NY-Ts.

Now, Mr. Moore is calling for an immediate 50 basis points Fed rate cut.

This puts him in a unique position compared to the other Fed members. Not 1 of them advocates slashing rates while the economy is trending growth, raising wages, normal credit growth, full employment, and low “real” interest rates.

Stephen Moore believes that the December Fed rate hike was inexplicable.

During the NY-Ts’ interview Mr. Moore also said he would use commodity prices as a guide, which is in fact the opposite of what the Federal Reserve does today, as it focuses on the so-called “core” inflation rate that strips out energy and food prices.

Stephen Moore is a conservative economic commentator and a fellow at the Heritage Foundation. He has said he is not a “sycophant for Trump,” nor a “Dove” on monetary policy.

This is something of interest for investors to be mindful of in here.

Wednesday, the major US stock market indexes finished at: DJIA -32.14 at 25625.59, NAS Comp -48.15 at 7643.36, S&P 500 -13.09 at 2805.37

Volume: Trade on the NYSE came in at 823-M/shares exchanged

  • NAS Comp +15.2% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +12.9% YTD
  • S&P 500 +11.9% YTD
  • DJIA +9.9% YTD

HeffX-LTN’s overall technical analysis of the major US stock market indexes is Bullish in here.

Making and Keeping America Great!

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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