US New Home Sales Fall as Mortgages Rates Rise

US New Home Sales Fall as Mortgages Rates Rise

US New Home Sales Fall as Mortgages Rates Rise

Sales of new US single-family homes fell to a near 2-year low in September and data for the prior three months was revised lower, the latest indications that rising mortgage rates and higher prices were sapping demand for housing.

Though housing accounts for a small share of GDP, it has a bigger economic footprint. That is raising concerns that protracted housing market weakness could eventually spill over to the broader economy. Residential investment contracted in 1-H of the year and is expected to have declined further in Q-3.

The US Commerce Department said on Wednesday new home sales dropped 5.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 553,000 units last month. That was the lowest level since December 2016. August’s sales pace was revised down to 585,000 units from the previously reported 629,000 units.

June and July sales rates were also revised lower.

New home sales have now declined for 4 months running. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for about 9.7% of housing market sales, falling 1.4% to a pace of 625,000 units last month.

New home sales are drawn from permits and tend to be volatile on a month-to-month basis. They declined 13.2% from a year ago.

The weak new home sales came on the heels of reports last week showing declines in home-building, permits and housing completions in September. In addition, sales of previously owned homes dropped to a near 3-year low in September.

Economists blame the sluggishness on the more expensive home loans and higher house prices, which have outstripped wage growth, making home purchasing unaffordable for some first-time buyers.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has increased more than 80 bpts this year to an average of 4.85%, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac.

A survey of home-builders published last week showed builders complaining that “housing affordability has become a challenge due to ongoing price and interest rate increases.”

In a separate report on Wednesday, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said its home price index rose 6.1% in the year to August. 

House price inflation is slowing from a peak of 7.7% in February as demand slackens, but continues to outpace annual wage growth, currently below 3%.

Economists do not believe the US housing market is headed for another collapse.

Stay tuned…

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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