US Labor Market Solid

US Labor Market Solid

The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits was flat to unchanged last week, suggesting the labor market remains on solid footing despite slowing economic activity.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits were flat to unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 218,000 for the week ended 1 June, the Labor Department said Thursday. Data for the prior week was revised to show 3,000 more applications received than previously reported.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims would be unchanged at 215,000 in the latest week. The Labor Department said no states were estimated.

The 4-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 2,500 to 215,000 last week.

The claims data has no bearing on May’s employment report, which is scheduled for release on Friday. According to a Reuters survey of economists, NFPs likely increased by 185,000 jobs in May after surging by 263,000 in April.

The pace of job growth is well above the roughly 100,000 needed per month to keep up with growth in the working age population. The unemployment rate is forecast to be unchanged near a 50-year low of 3.6%.

Sustained labor market strength is seen supporting growth amid signs that economic activity is slowing after a temporary boost from volatile exports and inventory accumulation in Q-1. Manufacturing production and home sales slumped in April, and consumer spending increased moderately.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting GDP (gross domestic product) rising at a 1.3% pace in Q-2. The economy grew at a 3.1% annualized rate in Q-1

Thursday’s claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid rose 20,000 to 1.68-M for the week ended May 25. The 4-week moving average of the so-called continuing claims slipped 1,000 to 1.67-M. 

Making and Keeping America Great!

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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