US Jobless Claims Rise, Unemployment Benefits Increased in June

US Jobless Claims Rise, Unemployment Benefits Increased in June

US Jobless Claims Rise, Unemployment Benefits Increased in June


The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose last week, but remained below a level associated with a healthy labor market.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 268,000 for the week ended 25 June, the US Labor Department said Thursday.

Claims for the prior week were revised to show 1,000 fewer applications received than previously reported.

Economists polled forecast initial claims rising to 267,000 in the latest week. Claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a strong jobs market, for 69 weeks running, the longest streak since 1973.

The 4-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it evens out W-W volatility, was unchanged at 266,750 last week.

A US Labor Department analyst said there were no special factors influencing last week’s claims data and only claims for Georgia had been estimated.

The low level of layoffs suggests underlying strength in the labor market even though hiring slowed sharply in May, with NFPs (nonfarm payrolls) increasing only 38,000, the smallest gain since September 2010.

Although economists believe job growth picked up in June, there are worries that Britain’s vote last week to leave the EU could prompt companies to delay hiring amid uncertainty over how the matter will unfold.

While global equities have since recovered some $1.3-T in financial market losses this week, it is unclear whether the financial turmoil triggered by the referendum is over.

A survey of economists forecast payrolls rising 180,000 in June.

The US Labor Department will publish its June employment report on 8 July.

The claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell 20,000 to 2.12-M in the week ended 18 June. The 4-week average of continuing claims dropped 13,000 to 2.13-M, the lowest mark since November 2000.

The continuing claims covered the period during which the government surveyed households for June’s unemployment rate. The 4-week average of claims declined 17,000 between the May and June survey periods.

A survey of economists forecast the unemployment rate rising to 4.8% in June from an 8.5-year low of 4.7% in May.

Thursday, the US major stock market indexes finished at: DJIA +235.31 at 17929.99, NAS Comp +63.43 at 4842.68, S&P 500+28.09 at 2098.86

Volume: month end trade was heavy with 1.3-B/shares exchanged on the NYSE

  • NAS Comp -3.3% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +1.1% YTD
  • S&P 500 +2.7% YTD
  • DJIA +2.9% YTD
HeffX-LTN Analysis for DIA: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Neutral (0.09) Neutral (-0.16) Neutral (0.19) Bullish (0.25)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for SPY: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Neutral (0.01) Neutral (-0.20) Neutral (0.12) Neutral (0.10)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for QQQ: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Neutral (0.07) Neutral (-0.15) Bullish (0.29) Neutral (0.06)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for VXX: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Neutral (-0.24) Bearish (-0.33) Neutral (-0.15) Bearish (-0.25)

Stay tuned…

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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