US Jobless Claims Dive Lowest Weekly in 45 Years

US Jobless Claims Dive Lowest Weekly in 45 Years

US Jobless Claims Dive Lowest Weekly in 45 Years

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week to the lowest level in 45 years.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 41,000 to a seasonally adjusted 220,000 for the week ended 13 January, the lowest mark since February 1973, the Labor Department said on Thursday. 

Claims for the prior week were unrevised.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims falling to 250,000 in the latest week. Claims had increased over the prior 4 weeks, with economists blaming difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations around moving holidays and unseasonably cold weather.

The Labor Department said claims for California, Arkansas, Kentucky, Maine, Hawaii, Virginia and Wyoming were estimated.

It also said claims-taking procedures continued to be disrupted in the Virgin Islands months after they were battered by Hurricanes Irma and Maria, while claims processing in Puerto Rico was still not back to normal.

Last week marked the 150th week running that claims remained below the 300,000 threshold, which is associated with a strong labor market. That is the longest such stretch since Y 1970, when the labor market was much smaller.

The labor market is near full employment, with the jobless rate at a 17-year low of 4.1 percent.

Last week, the 4-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 6,250 to 244,500. The claims data covered the survey week for January’s NFPs (nonfarm payrolls).

The 4-week average of claims rose 8,500 between the December and January survey periods, suggesting some moderation in the pace of job growth. NFPs increased by 148,000 in December after surging by 252,000 in November.

Job growth is slowing as the labor market nears full employment. There has been an increase in companies reporting difficulties finding qualified workers. There are about 5.9-M job openings in the country.

Thursday’s claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid increased 76,000 to 1.95-M in the week ended 6 January.

The 4-Wk MA of continuing claims gained 4,000 to 1.92-M.

Stay tuned…

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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