US Job Losses in United States Oil (USO), Gas Industry Flat in January
The job losses in the U.S that have plagued the oil and gas industry for most of the latest downturn showed signs of easing in January.
Instead of sharp dips, oil and gas extraction, which is categorized under mining by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), was fairly flat with a decrease of just 0.7 from December 2019 to January 2020. Support activities for mining also reflected minimal declines for the period at -2.3.
West Texas Intermediate oil prices declined over the month, and the rotary oil rig count was little changed, the report stated.
In December, the contraction in mining employment was reflected by a decline in the number of domestic rotary oil rigs. That same month, oilfield services, categorized under “support activities for mining,” reported declines of 8,200 jobs. Support activities for mining saw declines for all but one month of 2019.
Oil and gas extraction employment fared better in December, adding 2,500 jobs for the month.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.58.
The projected upper bound is: 10.94.
The projected lower bound is: 9.83.
The projected closing price is: 10.38.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 35.4430. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 25.36. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 23 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -100. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 22 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed down -0.160 at 10.420. Volume was 5% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 99% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
10.480 10.560 10.380 10.420 22,607,392
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 10.77 12.07 11.87
Volatility: 31 30 39
Volume: 30,031,142 20,419,930 26,035,272
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 12.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of USO (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 18 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that USO is currently in an oversold condition. The security price has set a new 14-period low while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bullish divergence.
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